Good evening, folks. Our Winter Storm THREAT continues for the eastern half of the state as we track two chances to put snow on the ground for Christmas. The first arrives late Wednesday night into early Thursday behind an arctic front. The second comes from an upper level system Christmas Eve into Christmas Day. I REALLY like the look of this second system with high snow ratios.
I’ve put together a conservative First Call For Snowfall map to include both events and this goes through Christmas evening…
Please give the low end totals the same amount of respect as the high end totals.😜 Again, that’s just the first draft and I will update that several times tonight into Wednesday before getting to the Final Call.
The Weather Prediction Center has expanded the Slight Risk for 4″+ snows to include much of central Kentucky and now shows a Moderate Risk across eastern Kentucky. This is through 7pm Christmas Eve…
The WPC also has much of eastern Kentucky in a 50%-60%+ risk of seeing 4″+ snow by 7pm Christmas Day…
They give better than 50% odds of seeing 2″+ of snow all the way back into the Lexington metro with a greater than 80% chance in the east…
For those wondering, the WPC is part of NOAA and the National Weather Service.
In terms of the late day models, we find a little more of a split compared to earlier today.
The NAM continues to be rather boisterous with the snow potential farther west…
This run was also showing some freezing rain…
The Hi Res NAM only goes through 1am Christmas Day…
The Short Range Canadian said “NAM Fam, hold my beer”…
The GFS continues to hit far eastern Kentucky, but was a little lighter in central Kentucky…
The late day run of the EURO is also dropping the hammer on the east…
I will have a New Call For Snowfall on WKYT tonight at 11 and overnight on KWC. Have a good one and take care.
Another nothingburger for me..
Still seems that if it favors the east more, it will shift even more east so the main action would be far east KY and less for the rest. In other words, most of us would be on the low end of the map totals, but still a white Christmas 🙂
If it trends west some, that could make it more interesting.
NWS Jackson seems to be downplaying this event hard, my local forecast says “little or no snow accumulation expected” and I live at the base of Pine Mountain. lol
They might be banking on an eastern trend.
First rule of the central and eastern KY weather world is completely disregard anything NWS Jackson says. 4 years ago when we already had nearly 9 inches on the ground they were calling for 1-2 inches through the entire event. A kindergartener can literally forecast better than Jackson…
I give up. WKY almost completely misses out. Bring on spring. The snow drought continues here…