Good Sunday to one and all. Here’s hoping this update finds each of you enjoying life to the fullest. A weak system is rolling through the region today, bringing a little more in terms of some ugly weather. As we look down the weather road, the pattern becomes favorable for a big increase in winter weather as we get into the second week of January. Once it starts, it may have a nice little run with it.
Let’s begin this party with today’s weather. It’s a seasonable brand of colder air with temps mainly in the 30s. There’s some rain and snow showers floating around the region as well. Another shot a snow shower or flurries shows up tonight into Monday morning.
Here’s where the models think will see some snow…
GFS
NAM
HI RES NAM
Here are your Sunday radars…
The next item up for bids is a clipper dropping in here on Tuesday. This brings a little light rain and light snow to the eastern half of the state…
A stronger system will follow this up by the end of the week. A bowling ball type system rolls from west to east across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, likely bringing rain and snow. Which one you get depends on the track of the low.
The Canadian continues to be fairly consistent with it…
The GFS is beginning to finally see this better than it has been…
The EURO continues to differ from run to run with it because it doesn’t handle these types of systems very well…
With the trough starting to dig in behind that, another storm system may try to come out of the southwest next weekend or early the following week. The pattern suggests this and the GFS is actually picking up on something…
I’m going to continue to beat the drum on the amount of blocking showing up and how this leads to an increase in winter weather around here. I’ve been trying to drive this home for a while and the setup shows no signs of letting us down, yet.
The European Ensembles show this massive blocking across eastern Canada, Greenland and into the Arctic. It’s also showing a ridge going up along the west coast. This shows the 500mb height anomalies from January 10-17…
The Euro Ensembles are made up of a whopping 51 members, so that means there is a lot of agreement among them. It’s also a pretty good signature for snow systems on the 51 member average snowfall for the next 2 weeks…
The Canadian Ensembles also have a healthy signature as their average…
GFS Ensembles
I will have updates later today. Have a great Sunday and take care.
Just hope all this blocking if correct is not to strong.Our luck the well water runs dry or we cold and dry while Mississippi gets a blizzard.
Thanks Chris, I can’t find any blocking at the present in Greenland. Is that just another weather models prediction ?
I look at the jet stream level about three times a day and the only feature that stands out is the huge High Pressure System centered near Eastern Siberia this morning.
Interesting to note that the High Pressure during the week of Christmas moved farther West into Siberia allowing a piece of Arctic air to move Southward into the Ohio Valley which help in giving Eastern Kentucky a White Christmas.
Now the High Pressure has move back to it’s original position and we have return to a more Pacific flow. (Typical La Nina phase.)
I don’t know if there is any significant’s to this observation, but I think it was worth mentioning ?
Another miss for me last night… I’m very jealous of the areas in east central Illinois that picked up 6-8″ of snow last night because 24 hours before the storm started I was in the “bullseye” of heaviest snow. This seems to happen to me with every storm, I think I’m going to have to move if I want to get a 6″+ snow. It has been almost 6 years now and I have seen literally every direction around me get hit! I feel like I have a dome over my house at this point, hopefully the next couple months can prove me wrong.
I have not shoveled snow off my driveway in over three years.
My doctor told me NOT TO SHOVEL SNOW !!!
I’ll be 70 years old this coming November.
I did it again click twice.
I’ve only seen two major Snowstorms here in Central Kentucky in the last twelve years and one historic Ice Storm.
I think you will get a major accumulation of snow before we will here in Central Kentucky. I was raised in that part of South-Central Indiana and I remember a lot of late season snowstorms.
Overall the climate here is not that bad. It’s just the Snowstorms are few and far between. We are just too far South.
I’ve only seen two major Snowstorms here in Central Kentucky in the last twelve years and one historic Ice Storm.
I think you will get a major accumulation of snow before we will here in Central Kentucky. I was raised in that part of South-Central Indiana and I remember a lot of late season snowstorms.
Overall the climate here is not that bad. It’s just the Snowstorms are few and far between. We are just too far South.