Good afternoon, everyone. It’s another dreary day across the Commonwealth and we have more to come for the rest of the weekend. Rain and some winter weather increases quickly from the southeast through the evening with some leftover junk behind it for Sunday. This continues to be part of this very active pattern that will continue to trend much more toward winter in the week ahead. Once into the second full week of the month, it’s a full blown winter pattern developing for much of the country.

The evening system is mainly a rain maker, but a mix will try to show up across areas of the north and west. Rain and snow showers will then be noted as we head into Sunday…

Here are your radars to follow along…

 

A clipper continues to look a little stronger as we move into Monday night and Tuesday. This can bring a swath of light rain and some snow into the region…

Canadian

EURO

That will be followed up by a stronger system arriving by Thursday and continuing into Friday. The Canadian continues to be the most consistent with this and also drops in another clipper behind it for the weekend…

The EURO is likely showing some bias here as it holds this energy back too long as it comes out of the southwest. That keeps the model pushing this system to the southeast…

Listen, we just had the highest pressure ever recorded and one of the lowest, if not the lowest, non-tropical pressure ever recorded over the past week. The models are barely designed to handle normal patterns, let alone one that is as extreme as ever across the Northern Hemisphere. For folks who only regurgitate GFS MOS data or day 10 EURO forecast high temps of 105-110 degrees (Check weather twitter this past summer), tough times are ahead. Heck, tough times are ahead for us all with an extreme pattern. 😎

I continue to target week two for a full-blown winter pattern to settle in. Why? Here ya go: Read Me, Please

The GFS Ensembles continue to have the look we’ve been targeting…

That’s a heck of a pattern, folks.

The GFS Ensembles are made up of 21 different members and what you see above is the average of those members. The same goes for the snowfall potential over the next 2 weeks…

Again, that’s the average of the 21 members and that’s to be used ONLY as an indicator of increased snowfall odds. Much of central and eastern Kentucky are running well ahead in the snow category already and this is the snowiest look on the Ensembles at any point during this cold weather season.

I may drop by for an evening update. Then again, I may not. 😏

Enjoy the evening and take care.