Good afternoon, folks. It’s a dreary day across much of the Commonwealth as our weak system rolls through the area. This is bringing some rain and snow to eastern Kentucky, but everyone is getting in on much colder air. The next system coming our way arrives Thursday into Friday and is likely to bring some snow to parts of Kentucky.

First off, let’s track the rain and snow out of the east and any potential flurries or snow showers that form behind it…

The bowling ball system rolls eastward across the Tennessee Valley from Wednesday night into Thursday and then into the Carolinas by Friday. This path likely brings a swath of light snow across the state, especially across the south and southeast. As the low flexes a little, a better shot at accumulating snow may show up into southeastern Kentucky by Friday.

The Canadian Model has been very consistent in the overall message and even brings a swath of light snow all the way into the I-64 corridor…

The Short Range Canadian is similar…

Notice both models have a little enhancement in the southeast. That’s something the NAM is also coming around to…

Keep in mind that the NAM was a total whiff in the prior runs.

Speaking of a whiff, that’s all the GFS knows what to do with any system…

The new EURO has an offshoot band of light snow that gets pretty far north into Kentucky, but isn’t as intense across the southeast…

It will be interesting to see the model trends tonight into Wednesday because I don’t think any model has a good handle on this.

The possible system behind all this continues to trend farther south on the GFS and Canadian Models, but the EURO is turning this up the coast…

Again, with the amount of blocking taking hold, the models are going to exhibit some pretty big swings in the coming days. That’s what they do anyway, but especially in the current climate.

Last night I showed you guys the analog years from a run of the GFS. All the years argued for arctic cold to show up later in January. The 12z GFS had this for lows…

I will be back for a late evening update. Have a good one and take care.