Good Thursday, everyone. We continue to track winter weather into the region starting late tonight, but really kicking in later Friday. Once that kicks in, we will see rounds of snow squalls and light snow through the weekend and into Monday. Accumulations are likely to show up during this time.
Let’s kick things off with a breakdown of how things look to play out:
- Winds are gusty today as temps head toward 50 degrees ahead of the cold front.
- This front slams through from west to east overnight into Friday morning. This has a narrow band of light rain and light snow along and behind it.
- Some clearing takes place behind that and we may see some sun for a time Friday. That will allow for some wintertime destabilization of the atmosphere to take place.
- Snow showers and snow squalls should quickly develop Friday afternoon and evening. These can pack a punch with gusty winds and reduced visibilities.
- Periods of light snow then moves in Friday night into Saturday, putting down light accumulations.
- The next system moves in from the northwest Sunday into Monday and brings more rounds of light snow.
- Accumulations are likely for the entire region with a few inches possible. There’s the opportunity for a little more across the southeastern mountains.
- There’s also an outside chance for a little thundersnow to sneak into the mix at some point. There’s a lot of rising air with these upper level systems.
The Future radar from the Hi Res NAM gives us a good look at how quickly those squalls go up Friday afternoon and evening…
The raw model output from the NAM is also picking up on the thunder risk with the Saturday afternoon stuff…
Here’s a check of the snowfall numbers from the various models.
Here’s the GFS through Monday…
The Kentucky view…
Here’s the Canadian…
The EURO has been the slowest to see this whole setup and each run increases the snow numbers…
Overall, this is a prolonged period of winter weather and should be able to make most snow-lovers smile.
I will have a First Call For Snowfall map later today, so check back. Make it a good one and take care.
Over the Years I’ve experienced several thundersnow events, with the first WAY back around 1960, when a Nor’easter tore through New Jersey. I remember that we had some very light snow into the early evening, with little or any sticking. Then around 10:00 pm, there were two lightning flashes with crashes of thunder, and a half hour later the ground was completely covered. My dad said later that we picked up 15″ overnight, with drifts of 2 to 3 feet! Another thundersnow event was in the foothills of the Pocono mountains in 1977, where the lightning wasn’t as vivid, but once again the snow rate picked up dramatically. We ended up with 29″, with a drift that literally covered my garage door.
1977 was a memorable Winter!!
1977 we had some big snows that stayed on along time
Here is the YouTube video of the reaction from Jim Cantore of The Weather Channel when he was reporting live from Chicago during the Groundhog Day Blizzard (which produced prolific thundersnow throughout the Chicago area) in February of 2011.
http://youtube.com/watch?v=qJt4nV6hM1Y
Thanks Mike that was exciting. I’ve only experience Thunder Snow one time, but wasn’t that dramatic. However the lighting hit our house and burned up a portable phone and two television sets. LOL
I remember the big Snows in March 1960 in South-Central Indiana where two back to back Heavy Wet Snows deposited up to three feet of Snow. Lots of fun and we were out of school for almost two weeks.
January, February and March 1977 we had a lot of Snow, but nothing like we had in March 1960. I was the Frigid Temperatures that really marked 1977-78 in Indiana.
How weather has changed over the years. Now a big Snow is Snow Showers with one to three inches in isolated areas and many areas will miss out. Pretty Sad for those who have not seen a Major Snow Event.
Just two weeks ago the forecast for our area was for a Major Change in the weather pattern to bring Snowstorms to the Ohio Valley and Frigid Temperature to follow through February. Well it is happening in Europe and Russia. This has happen before in past recent years and I made notes that when Europe is cold and Snowy the Eastern US is almost Winter weather free.
The local weatherman which I get my weather from Erie PA said the really cold air will stay up in Canada and Northern Europe the cold air will moderate for the lower 48 and be warmer than expected.
Most of the Arctic Air is North of the Arctic Circle and continues to Drain into Asia and Europe.
In some areas the Arctic is Cold as we are here in the Ohio Valley and in some places Warmer.
At this time no real changes are forecast to occur.
Bring on the thunder snow!!! I just can’t believe how intense some of models are depicting these squalls out to be especially the HRRR.
Central Indiana in the coming days are expecting 7 to 8 inches of accumulating Snow.
Here in my area of Central Kentucky nothing.
At this point I would take a good Rain as the soil moisture is beginning to get low.
Nice to see the Sunshine today !
You’ll likely get something Friday night it’s just might not be much.
Looks like it’s a pot of chili kind of weekend!