Good Wednesday everyone and thanks for checking in with us. We have a strong cold front blowing across the state today and this front will usher in a much colder air mass for the next few days. There is even the chance for some areas to see a flake or two later Thursday.
All of this is part of the slow transition toward a wintry pattern that may start showing up as early as the end of next week.
Before we talk about what’s ahead of us, let’s track what we have going on out there today…
Rainfall
Current Temps
Showers will continue to work eastward through the state and some areas may even hear a rumble of thunder. Winds will increase as colder air blows in from the west and northwest. This will set us up for a chilly next few days with highs running in the 40s for Thursday and Friday.
There will be a weak upper air system crossing the Ohio Valley late Thursday. This doesn’t have a lot of juice with it, but should be able to touch off a rain or snow shower. These should be fairly scattered with the north and east having the best shot at a drop or flake.
Temps by Saturday will recover toward normal with highs in the 50s. Some clouds will increase on Sunday and there could be a scattered shower trying to pop. This is ahead of another storm system that will bring a greater chance of rain our way by early next week.
The overall weather pattern will turn very stormy next week with a series of systems working across the country. At some point, these storms will be able to tap the buildup of cold across Canada and whip it into much of the country.
Speaking of cold… check out the European Model showing 850mb temps early next week of -34c up in Canada…
That’s brutal cold air and something you don’t see a lot of in November. All that cold is bound to invade the states later this month into December.
The Canadian Model is trying to get the party started by the end of next week…
That’s probably rushing things just a bit, but it’s also a sign of things to come. The pattern for the end of November into December is a threatening one for much of the country as old man winter appears to want to come to life awfully early this year.
I will have another update later today, so be sure to check back. Enjoy your Wednesday and take care.
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Thanks Chris. I dread the cold, but it sure sounds like it’s coming soon.
One major sign of worry if you want this cold start is the – PNA as long as that is negative any chill will be brief and the southeast ridge will quickly return even if Canada freezes.
So does the PNA trump NAO/AO?
Also, what are the indicators to watch for that would suggest that the PNA is shifting to a more positive state for the east?
Looks like November is following a very typical La Nina pattern. I expect lots of seasonable temps and storms cutting north of us into the Great Lakes to continue this month. No Winter weather is on the horizon yet. Just my $0.02. But even though it’s going to stay nice this month, it can turn around quick. We saw that happen last December.
I would love to see lots of snow around Christmas & maybe into January, thats all KY can hope for most of the time. This early season winter stuff never pans out for KY.
This is based on weather patterns & living here for the past 48 years?
This is the headline on weather.gov…Wow:
…Life-Threatening Epic Storm Continues to Impact Western Alaska Coast This Morning…
A powerful and extremely dangerous storm of near-record magnitude is now impacting western Alaska. Impacts will spread northwest and continue through Thursday in some communities.
I tend to agree with your assessment. The pattern we’re in right now is a classic La Nina pattern. In order to get cold (sustained cold as well) in the east, we need to have certain meteorolgical features in place. Right now, those features are not there and are not expected to be there until about 10-14 days from now. Both the GFS and Euro have a tendency to move things too quickly in the long term. Note how back around Halloween that most Mets, including myself, were thinking that a return to cold would happen around mid November. As late as last week, that idea had been pushed back by a week, and now looking at the lastest data, it could be late month…or perhaps even early December for all the pieces to be in place to get the cold into the Ohio Valley. Until then, the volitle upper pattern will continue across the US featuring warm ups and cool downs as surface lows cut from the Plains into the Great Lakes. It is often difficult to get pattern changes once a mild pattern has been established…especially when you have such a strong Pacific Jet in place.
it can when the other teleconnections are closer to normal.
Euro monthly product will be out tomorrow afternoon. That should help in figuring out how quick the turn around will be if at all. MJ/wxman describe the – PNA I mentioned above with a trough in the west and ridge over the southeast. Since I’m helping with the long range tomorrow I may dive into this a bit with the AFD for the philly office.
What did u do, transfer to Penn State?
But yeah, the 250mb charts make it clear as a bell that Winter won’t show up here anytime soon.
I’m with most on here who root for arctic outbreaks and snow. I think the best thing to do is just wait out the pattern and not panic b/c something has gotta give at some point. Last November most locales were 1-2 degrees above normal, and this November may 1-2 degrees above normal as well. But I agree with the thread here…there isn’t any hope in the current model guidance, but I do hope we see something change in December. It seemed like most winter forecasts I researched had December being a colder than normal month for this part of the country.
I guess if all else fails, I’ll just have to my make a campus visit up at Bethel in St Paul in January…:D
SNOW…HEAVY AT TIMES…WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN TODAY AS AN INTENSE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKS OVER CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN. BETWEEN 2 TO 5 INCHES OF A
SLUSHY SNOW HAS FALLEN SO FAR OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES ARE
POSTED FOR THE AREA.
haha no. still at WKU but got the SCEP at this office. taking credits which don’t require me to be in KY.
Sorry guys but i remember last winter you guys keeped saying winter not coming and boom chris hit it so i am going to wait until chris give us the bad news. guess i just want the snow really bad nothing bad toward you guys just have a lot of faith in chris…..
well i predicted in saept thankgiving to 10 day out we see our sist snbow on fround off 2 inches or more, CB sounding like its on cvourse. tcx u CB u da weather man, wish TG SHUCK win the lottery and reire, i love himbut u was at WKYT first and that shafted u, so i wouldnt ewant u to come back after that. u was a younf kid weather watcher with BRIAN COLLINS ans was loyal to them working the morning shidt for years. I GOT UR BACK.
well instead of being negative or trying to constantly trying to figure out what to say to completely be OPPOSITE of what chris is forecasting…gee you all are constantly choppin the mans forecasts all to peices…do it on your own sites no on here it gets old after a while…well here ya go CHRIS BAILEY…
a WELL SEASONED PROFESSIONAL SEEMS TO THINK ON YOUR LINES!!!!
PER JOE BASTARDI CHIEF Meteorologist for weatherbell.com says:
Current Alaska storm much like Nov. 1974.. 3 weeks later monster eastern storm.., ala 1950! MEI analog years!!!..
so Mr. Bailey I trust your forecasts, and have for yrs. Its sad how wanna-be’s are always trying to smear a good mans name.!!!!!
Would rather see it snow in Dec. when the cold air does arrive…Anything in Nov. will not lay anyways..Here it is only Nov. 9th and sound like some are already jumping off the cliff…Patience is the key…Let’s get a good snowpack up in canada first and them boom…We reap the rewards..
yep!!
Support for a Nov 18-19 cooldown is def a lot stronger today than previously. Very good EPO develops in tandem with -NAO….EPO relaxes a bit and the cold modifies after Nov 20, but then maybe cold again by T-day hopefully.
What does this mean for ky…Guess we will wait and see..
Here we go again…
OK Marsha, I’ll tell you what. If it turns Wintry, bitter cold, snowy, and icy at any point this month, I’ll send you a Christmas cake. How about that?
Nobody said Winter isn’t coming. We said it isn’t coming soon.
It has started! Love the comments, talking of winter weather has already revved up the chatter on here. I check the blog for Chris’s forecast but thoroughly enjoy the comment section battles.
wxman i didn’t say it was going to snow or turn icing i said i trust chris and i don’t like cake but a snicker bar would work…..