Good Thursday afternoon everyone. I wanted to drop by for some quick thoughts on the upcoming change back to a harsh wintry pattern.
Our Gulf of Mexico storm is getting going right now with snow and ice all the way into the deep south. Houston is under a Winter Storm Watch. What’s next? Bermuda maybe ? 
This storm will come rolling northeastward heading toward the Carolinas and will spread a swath of snow and mix into the state late Friday into early Saturday.
There will be a swath of 1″-3″ of wet snow setting up across parts of central and eastern Kentucky and I will map it out for you later today.
An arctic front will slam through here Monday and will have a blast of snow along and behind it. Temps will come way down late Monday into Tuesday. This period has a chance to become a “frozen tundra” type environment with snow and arctic cold.
That may set the stage for the next big eastern U.S. winter storm for the middle and end of next week. There is a good signal showing up on the forecast models right now…
GFS
GFS Ensembles Wednesday Evening
I will update the weekend system and look more in depth into next week’s harsh period later today so check back. Have a great afternoon and take care.
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Sure hope this one pans out next week..Getting late in the game.Look at the drop in pressure when it gets close to the east coast.As CB would say thats one Bad Boy.Please let this one stay the course and shift to the northwest a little.
I like our snow chances over the next week! lol, now lets see how many of theses “storms” give us one inch. hah
Ha, Chris! It would be our luck that Bermuda would get a WSW considering how crazy this winter has been. 😉
Yawn, is it spring yet. No, okay, not much longer now. I understand another cold snap is headed our way, but winter is running out of time. Only a few more weeks. Looks like spring will start sooner than later.
CB, come on man,,I thought the other day your were saying that this weekend and then early next week about snow storms…now its looks like not much out of these two, and now you “Like the signals” for mid to late week storm. Sorry, but I feel like its always out of KY’s REACH for a good snow storm! So, I guess I will get ready for the 1, 2, 3 inch snow that we can get….But man on man, I would love to have a foot snow…o be honest, here in CKY I would love to get a 6-8 inch snow and stay for a week!!!!
I guess its not the size of the snow that counts
mother nature: i’ve been a good boy this winter please let the 12z euro come true an inch of qpf with temps in the 20’s for wed-thu of next week.
MikeM,
Thanks you for that post on the last post. I means a lot. 🙂
I’m with you!
Only— praying to the One who actually hears me 😉
SPRING EQUINOX March 20, 7:21 P.M. EDT.
Lets see today is Feb 3rd..So I would say we have 40 days of winter to go…Now go back to bed sleepy head and dream about snow…
well sooner or later that storm next week will either hit or spring will!!!!
NO…Let this low move about 60 miles to the north and hammer all of Kentucky with 6-12…..THINK SNOW THINK SNOW THINK SNOW….Each one bigger than the one before…
How about some icing for that cake??..joe bastardi says: is the real blizzard of the century coming next week!!!B)
BigJoeBastardi: Seems like there have been a rush to apocalyptic naming. Pattern next week brings up shades of 1993 for Wed night-Fri period
Several other mets talking about the potential (there’s that word again) for next week! 😉
BigJoeBastardi: Seems like there have been a rush to apocalyptic naming. Pattern next week brings up shades of 1993 for Wed night-Fri period
Actually Meteorological Spring starts March the 1st. 3 weeks and 4 days. (25 days)
Rear-end high to a giraffe. That’s how deep we want the snow/ice to be. With -10 temps. so the road salt is rendered harmless, and 35 MPH sustained winds so that it blows around and nothing stays clear of snow. Yes… please let it come to pass.
Maybe potential means that instead of 3 inches we get 4 😉
Remember that the Euro showed a very similar solution like this a little over a week ago. Remember where that storm hit earlier this week…lots of things need to go right before this works out.
It was good to talk to you chris, thanks for taking time to answer my questions lol
I know we’re still awaiting CB’s First Call for Snowfall forecast. He’s laid out a general 1-3″.
Similarly, here’s my first call breakdown using my ‘special blend’ analysis (and yes, it does include a dart board).
Louisville 1-2″
Lexington 1-2″
Cincy 1-3″
Seymour IN 1-3″
Evansville IN 1-2″
Pikeville 1-3″
Ashland 1-3″
Middlesboro 1″<
Same here!!!! 🙂
to be honest i about sick of it, i love snow with everyone on here, but i just want to close the book on this one and move forward to spring!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
last time we wished that most of us had rain
Chris, what about southern Ky tonight?
Thanks!
I have a nice little update out on my blog about Friday night Sat, and for next week’s potential.
This is what Volunteer TV out of Knoxville is giving for next weeks storm for Middlesboro and London areas.
RAIN SHOWERS (.10”) that starts 12 Noon Friday and lasts until 1 AM Saturday
SNOW SHOWERS & FLURRIES (1.0 – 1.5 inches) that starts 2 AM Saturday and lasts until 11 AM Saturday, Feb. 5th
SNOW SHOWERS & FLURRIES (1.0 – 1.5 inches) that starts 5 AM Monday and lasts until 11 AM Tuesday
HEAVY SNOW & SNOW SHOWERS (7.5 – 11.0 inches) that starts 5 PM Wednesday and lasts until 3 PM Thursday, Feb. 10th
I agree with you. I might have a small tinge of optimism if the dominant tracks this year weren’t supressed storms that turned up the coast or storms which cut towards the lakes like the early December storm and thi past one.
THE SOUTHERN STREAM THEN LOOKS TO GET ACTIVE ONCE AGAIN TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK…AS LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES ACROSS TEXAS AND
THEN SWINGS EAST AND THEN NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THE
MODELS HAD BEEN MORE SUPPRESSED SOUTH WITH THIS LOW…BUT THE 12Z
RUNS HAVE BROUGHT THE TRACK FURTHER INLAND. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE IN PLACE…SO THIS COULD BE A GOOD SNOW PRODUCER FOR OUR AREA.
THERE IS LOTS OF TIME TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM…SO FOR NOW WILL ONLY
INTRODUCE LOW CHANCE POPS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
It has the attention of JKL 🙂
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Clarinet Mans Forecast:
This weekend for Friday – Saturday expect a quick hitting slushy snow that melts on the surface quite quickly….
Beginning of next week we should see no accumulation, except a coating to one inch in some area.
I still see no big snow makers yet.
If im reading them right looks like the GFC ensembles has cold air all the way into flordia.If thats the case cold air wins again..But we have a way to go,could get exciting around here monday…
By monday i mean give the models time to butt heads,and hopefully by midweek we be in the bullseye..
Um guys…
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_p36_168m.gif
all snow.
the potential may be there, and it may be a huge storm, but i DO NOT see ky benefiting from it.. we’re gonna get rain or a dusting if we’re lucky :(..bring on spring..:B
18z GFS is very very very interesting for next weeks snow maker…We could not get this lucky
Is Bastardi and prediction an oxymoron?
Your right. I’m sitting here listening to TG on WKYT down play everything. Keeps saying good news is it won’t be a big event. (This weekend)
Winter Storm “Buttercup”
“Why do you build me up, Buttercup, baby, just to let me downnnn!”
This weekend won’t be a big deal..But Holy cow next wed and thrusday could be the big Daddy of them all..But of course we are 6 days away of knowing..sigh
The 18z gfs clobbers the state Tues-Thur. Hope it still shows up on Monday, then it will be game on. But, I know it will change too many times before then.
Good luck to you. Glad you got to talk to Chris. I figure if he ever talks to me it would be to ban me from the blog.
I’m still working on that song, “7 days from the big one”
6 days, 7 days doesn’t matter. We never know till the day of.
It is the 18z and it is a week away, but WOW! 12-18 inches of snow through Kentucky
http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2011&model_mm=02&model_dd=03&model_init_hh=18&fhour=162¶meter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false
Sadly, it’s more like the hour of.
http://ekywx.com/kychat.htm come chat with us!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
this time there is more cold air in place and it has more model support. we’ll see if we don’t get this one onto next winter it will be.
I also like the looks of the NAO taking a nice negative dip this argues for a east coast storm not a lakes cutter.
This looks familiar. I’ll bet it misses us and goes north…again.
Yes, he’s a moron who breathes oxygen, maybe.
Couldn’t resist.
Just looking at the event for tomorrow if the 0z nam & gfs do not change there forecast for snow accumulation. It will be a radar watcher.
NAM gives us heavier moisture, but overall a general 1-3 should be expected as of NOW.But you know that can change 😉
The GFS ensembles an DGEX has storm moving more east and off the coast..But still shows a good snowfall for Ky.Only time will tell.Got to keep our fingers crossed.This will probably be our last shot at a good snowfall.
I think we will have more opportunities for snowfall. The only concern is can we generate enough offense (snow).
Excuse me I was being a little selfish I was tracking the sn. fall amounts around the lou. & the surrounding areas.
Hey all…Long time reader of the blog, actually ever since Chris had it for WKYT. I don’t comment hardly at all, but just wanted to thank everyone for their input and knowledge about the weather. Sure would be nice if we finally got a BIG snow. I am from near Mansfield, Ohio, and growing up there, we saw about 6-7+ feet of snow per year. And even now, while they do get a lot more then we do here, they still do not receive near what they used to. This year has been an exception there and here, and all things considered, we still have gotten a lot of snow, even though it has been so spread out. If we do get a good smackdown of snow at once, this season Im sure will rival some of the all time best snow seasons ever for this area…
What I am trying to say I guess is I really think we are going back into a pattern of more fierce winters. It just seems to me the snows are getting more common, and more amounts of snow and ice are showing up all over (even though it seens to miss our state). Snow in south TX? I cant remember that happening in recent years! Maybe this is just a freak winter, but I really think this winter is just a small preview of winters to come….
So, if we don’t get our BIG snow this year (which will really be terrible, all things considered), I hold out hope that we are going to get something big in the next year or two. I do think we have quite a bit of winter left yet. Who knows, the dreaded “KY Snowdome” may very well end up collapsing like that building in Boston did yesterday! If not, I suggest KY shanges their slogan from “the Bluegrass State”, to “the Snowless State”.
Didn’t they know pretty much five days in advance about the blizzard that struck OK to the northeast?
Actually, with temps from 5 at night to 20 above during the day, snow ratios may top 20:1 meaning this could go 30 inches or more
Just like the analogy you refer to- this is a lie too 😉
If I had a dollar every time a system was slamming us five days out, I would have enough to buy a twelve pack of Sam Adams lager 😉
As much as I would like to go with that answer it will not happen.
I have grown tired of wishing for a big snow.
Spring bells are on. sorry!
Yep, but the difference being no KY snow median 😉
Just look how systems have gone north and some even to our south as approaching from the west & south west. Snow approaches the state and redirects most of the frozen stuff.
Heck, we even got screwed up on the clipper last week (our normal shot at decent snow).
If we get the BIG ONE we will all buy you a 12 pack of Sam Adams! Try the Noble Pils, it’s pretty tasty.
Just talking THIS winter. If for the past multi-years, I could by a truckload 🙂
Might do, but will not use the litmus of a big snow to get it- would probably get pretty thirsty then 😉
All of you people begging for these big snows are the very ones who complain when the roads are not clear immediately.This state is not equipped to handle snow this large.In the foot range.It would be a distress on everyone not to mention the kids who will be in school all summer.Bring on spring I am done with winter.
Yes, it is true. It might be an actual force of nature. Like dark energy pushes the Universe into expansion and counteracts gravity, Ky ‘dryenergy’ pushes snow away or evaporates it before it hits the ground. We can’t have a big snow. It violates natural law.
Whenever IT happens, this year, next year, I don’t care. If all it takes is to buy someone some beer for the BIG ONE, I’m game! Just share one with me. Cheers
You bring up some good points. Those are big “If’s.” For the past 8 weeks we’ve been seeing this coming cold that has not really materialized. Also take care in using those NAO/AO numbers. Remember, those are being predicted by the model. Thus, if the model is off to lunch, then so are those indices.
Agreed, I’m tired of the cold as well.. Spring can’t start soon enough.
AMEN! Bring on spring…and summer…and flip flops…and shorts…..ahhhhh 🙂
You have got some great posts in your blog. Keep up with the good work.Thanks!!!
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