Good Monday to one and all. The second week of the month is looking to be in much better shape than the first one, especially in the temperature department. This will launch a case of Spring Fever, but the pattern after this likely features a fight between spring and winter. I will take a look at this and a peek farther down the weather road toward summer.

Temps today top 60 in most areas and may flirt with 70 in the west. Most of the state is deep into the 60s and could hit 70 in some spots from Tuesday through Thursday. It’s at this point we will introduce the chance for some showers and storms into the equation. Just how much of a threat is still up in the air a bit as we try to time a cold front in here. That may not arrive until the weekend and should be followed by a bowling ball type system.

We are in a seasonal transition from winter to spring and these transition periods often mean greater than normal model errors in the medium range. The EURO continues to point toward more of a mid-month blast of winter than many other models. Look at this big dip in the jet stream…

The EURO Ensembles go our deeper in time and show this big cold shot being a quick one…

The Control run of the EURO Ensembles says ‘not so fast’…

The new seasonal run of the EURO is out and shows a rather tepid temperature pattern for the summer. The model has near normal temps for the June-August time period…

It also shows a rather stormy summer with above normal rainfall…

Enjoy this magnificent Monday and take care.