Always Looking Ahead

Good evening gang. The blog is always looking ahead… even with a massive winter storm grazing the state right now. Our next storm system will develop across the gulf Friday into Saturday and roll northeast up the east coast or inland.

There are two trains of thought right now.

1. A single low pressure comes out of the gulf and works through the Carolinas into New England.

2. One low works into the Tennessee Valley as another low develops across the Carolinas and works up the coast.

The DGEX track would bring a decent snow in here…

I suspect that is a bit too fast as this looks more like a Saturday storm potential as the European Model shows…

The models are evenly split right now between the two scenarios I mentioned above. Plenty of time for them slug it out in the coming days.

There should be another storm during the first half of next week. Third times a charm or strike three?

I will have a full update tonight on the current behemoth of a storm and an update on the other two lurking over the next week or so.

Take care.

27 Comments

BubbaG on February 1, 2011 at 2:12 am

Thanks CB!

Seems these events are always like ships that pass close enough, but never set anchor and let us aboard. For this reason, I will respectfully decline future speculation.

If we go by results after many years and events- seems we need one to slap us on the side of our heads before buying in.

CB rocks, but(especially)central Kentucky winter weather sux.

The Imperial Battle cruiser is leaving Kentucky’s orbit. Too easy 😉

Mark on February 1, 2011 at 2:13 am

Word #1?

Space Wrangler on February 1, 2011 at 2:16 am

I’m 3 counties away from a winter storm warning. Huh!

Rachel on February 1, 2011 at 2:37 am

well… whichever track WON’T give us any decent snow… that’s the one the storm will take. You can bet on it :/

As for this storm brewing up right now… someone help me out here — because I have NO idea how to read these things.

So I clicked on the OO UTC NAM model — from the link to the right. I clicked on three hour precip charts and then on 27 hours…

This is what it shows;

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/namp03/00/images/nam_p03_027m.gif

What does that mean? Rain totals? Because that is a LOT of liquid precipitation.

don on February 1, 2011 at 2:38 am

ive done seen what ice can do and it can be really bad i hope that we dont get alot of ice i would rather have all that snow!

Ryan on February 1, 2011 at 2:50 am

A very cold light rain is falling in Shelbyville. The temperature is 33.

Shawon on February 1, 2011 at 2:54 am

I wonder why the Indianapolis NWS isn’t using the Ice Storm Warning product for parts of their CWA? I would imagine if they were ever going to use it, this is it.

E-TownKY on February 1, 2011 at 2:57 am

LOL, ok… NWS forecast for my area “Low temp tonight 38″…. and their actual temp right now for my area (as well as my therm outside) says 32 😉

“…..temperatures across central kentucky have begun to rise a bit over the last several hours as a warm front starts to push in…..”

— ok it was 35 a coupla hours ago. 🙂
where is the warm front?

Who are they forecasting for..? Is it Louisville? Confused.

Shawon on February 1, 2011 at 3:04 am

Jim Cantore on TWC sort of brought up a good point that this upcoming winter storm is the “Super Bowl” for Chicago. I think Kentucky had a Super Bowl in 1994 – and we lost. Some of us got another shot in 1998 and I think we won in a blowout. It helped that temps didn’t tank to all-time record lows afterward of course.

Of course it is the desire of the vast majority who comment on this blog to see Kentucky make the Super Bowl again. 😉

jeff on February 1, 2011 at 3:08 am

Get ready for a massive 1-2″ snowfall this coming weekend for No. central Ky. Lets face facts that this storm is headed south and all the other storms will follow the same pattern.
Spring cannot get here soon enough.

Lincoln on February 1, 2011 at 3:18 am

Once again check out our live feed from oklahoma courtesy riddlesweather.com … Watch the blizzard blow in!!! Snow will start soon there, so check it you wont want to miss it..

http://www.ustream.tv/channel/test-312

Jeff on February 1, 2011 at 3:20 am

Freezing rain in Owenton. Has been since 8:00ish. Anyone know if the temps will get above freezing by morning. Sitting at 30 degrees right now. Cars are completely glazed with ice.

c-BIV on February 1, 2011 at 3:59 am

Is it just me, or are you all just as repulsed as I am about the prospects of getting yet ANOTHER ankle biter this wk end. Because, let’s face it, even if it does snow, there’s no chance of more than a few inches. I think 90% of the loyal bloggers on here, are tired of getting worked up for false hope of a “significant” snowfall headed our way. That term should NEVER again be allowed in our forecast after what Illinois is about to witness tomorrow! So, there’s no point in overhyping an active February. All it means is another couple of miserable 2-4″ woopie doo light snows. I know everyone feels what im saying. I just thought I would speak for the majority.

Louis on February 1, 2011 at 4:01 am

I’m actually glad we are missing out on this one. A lot of snow is great, but ice, heavy wind, and sub-zero wind chills accompanying massive snow is not fun.

Lincoln on February 1, 2011 at 4:05 am

CB YOU NEED TO POST THIS ON YOUR PAGE!! HEAVY SLEET/SNOW. OKLAHOMA, thanks to riddlesweather.com 😉
http://www.ustream.tv/channel/test-312

BIll L on February 1, 2011 at 4:16 am

I’m with ya brother. Amen.

Farmer Sharkey on February 1, 2011 at 4:17 am

Oh man,you took the words right out of my mouth…er hands (?)… I’m so weary of getting my hopes up 6 days out only to get 1 inch when the event actually happens. False hope….yes. Woopie doo…hilarious!!

optimistic on February 1, 2011 at 4:27 am

Morehead hovering at 33 degrees, had some “moderate” rain earlier ..right now nothing..I am ONE county away from the weather advisories haha..but if it’s gonna be ice that’s fine..and I have to say AMEN to the earlier posts…no more 2-4 nuisance snows…I have friends in Chicago that are true snow lovers also and they keep texting me rubbing it in..UGGGHHH

optimistic on February 1, 2011 at 4:32 am

Pretty cool video stream …u can see it’s starting to come down hard and hear the wind…SIGH 🙁 haha..Thanks Lincoln for the vid feed ..

optimistic on February 1, 2011 at 4:48 am

am I the only one on here now? LOL…Just reading the reports from other areas..since “they” are STILL talking about the uncertainty of the track of this system is still possible for to track even further South affecting more of Kentucky? Will we not know unti it’s happening?

MikeM on February 1, 2011 at 5:00 am

The problem with the blog, and no disrespect meant to Chris, is that it covers a wide geography. Eastern Ky and West Va. are going to get snow. I feel like a red headed stepchild residing in beautiful central Ky. We hear of the potential, lows riding up the east coast, gonna come west, but the end result is always the same. 33 to begin, 32 and an inch or two accumulation to end. I need a snow 5-8 inches so I can snow board down our back yard with my kids without breaking my shoulder and who knows what other body parts on hard frozen tundra. To Quote again Brother Bubba, CB rocks but Central KY winters sux. I’m on board the cruiser.

BIll L on February 1, 2011 at 5:13 am

Its not coming my friend. Nothing to see with this one. Looks like Winter forgot us again.

mitch on February 1, 2011 at 5:40 am

friday-saturday system trending west on gfs as expected. 00z cmc brings smiles for snow!

patty on February 1, 2011 at 6:27 am

Would it be like the all the rest of snow we’ve gotten more or less??

feederband on February 1, 2011 at 10:21 am

There’s nothing to see here, move along. Probably nothing to see this weekend or next week. The pattern is set and will be hard to break. We will get snow but nothing of significance IMO.

MarkLex on February 1, 2011 at 11:39 am

I’m not getting the talk about snow next week? It looks like daytime high temps will be in the low 40s

Snowcat on February 1, 2011 at 5:57 pm

Anyone wish to give some jerks down the road about bad mouthing Bailey feel free to go to the following Topix site and nail them. I’ve given my two cents so any others feel free to join.
http://www.topix.com/forum/city/louisa-ky/TJ8C9F876RK2S0AI7/p2#lastPost

BubbaG on February 1, 2011 at 2:12 am
Thanks CB!
Seems these events are always like ships that pass close enough, but never set anchor and let us aboard. For this reason, I will respectfully decline future speculation.
If we go by results after many years and events- seems we need one to slap us on the side of our heads before buying in.
CB rocks, but(especially)central Kentucky winter weather sux.
The Imperial Battle cruiser is leaving Kentucky’s orbit. Too easy 😉
Mark on February 1, 2011 at 2:13 am
Word #1?
Space Wrangler on February 1, 2011 at 2:16 am
I’m 3 counties away from a winter storm warning. Huh!
Rachel on February 1, 2011 at 2:37 am
well… whichever track WON’T give us any decent snow… that’s the one the storm will take. You can bet on it :/
As for this storm brewing up right now… someone help me out here — because I have NO idea how to read these things.
So I clicked on the OO UTC NAM model — from the link to the right. I clicked on three hour precip charts and then on 27 hours…
This is what it shows;
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/namp03/00/images/nam_p03_027m.gif
What does that mean? Rain totals? Because that is a LOT of liquid precipitation.
don on February 1, 2011 at 2:38 am
ive done seen what ice can do and it can be really bad i hope that we dont get alot of ice i would rather have all that snow!
Ryan on February 1, 2011 at 2:50 am
A very cold light rain is falling in Shelbyville. The temperature is 33.
Shawon on February 1, 2011 at 2:54 am
I wonder why the Indianapolis NWS isn’t using the Ice Storm Warning product for parts of their CWA? I would imagine if they were ever going to use it, this is it.
E-TownKY on February 1, 2011 at 2:57 am
LOL, ok… NWS forecast for my area “Low temp tonight 38″…. and their actual temp right now for my area (as well as my therm outside) says 32 😉
“…..temperatures across central kentucky have begun to rise a bit over the last several hours as a warm front starts to push in…..”
— ok it was 35 a coupla hours ago. 🙂
where is the warm front?
Who are they forecasting for..? Is it Louisville? Confused.
Shawon on February 1, 2011 at 3:04 am
Jim Cantore on TWC sort of brought up a good point that this upcoming winter storm is the “Super Bowl” for Chicago. I think Kentucky had a Super Bowl in 1994 – and we lost. Some of us got another shot in 1998 and I think we won in a blowout. It helped that temps didn’t tank to all-time record lows afterward of course.
Of course it is the desire of the vast majority who comment on this blog to see Kentucky make the Super Bowl again. 😉
jeff on February 1, 2011 at 3:08 am
Get ready for a massive 1-2″ snowfall this coming weekend for No. central Ky. Lets face facts that this storm is headed south and all the other storms will follow the same pattern.
Spring cannot get here soon enough.
Lincoln on February 1, 2011 at 3:18 am
Once again check out our live feed from oklahoma courtesy riddlesweather.com … Watch the blizzard blow in!!! Snow will start soon there, so check it you wont want to miss it..
http://www.ustream.tv/channel/test-312
Jeff on February 1, 2011 at 3:20 am
Freezing rain in Owenton. Has been since 8:00ish. Anyone know if the temps will get above freezing by morning. Sitting at 30 degrees right now. Cars are completely glazed with ice.
c-BIV on February 1, 2011 at 3:59 am
Is it just me, or are you all just as repulsed as I am about the prospects of getting yet ANOTHER ankle biter this wk end. Because, let’s face it, even if it does snow, there’s no chance of more than a few inches. I think 90% of the loyal bloggers on here, are tired of getting worked up for false hope of a “significant” snowfall headed our way. That term should NEVER again be allowed in our forecast after what Illinois is about to witness tomorrow! So, there’s no point in overhyping an active February. All it means is another couple of miserable 2-4″ woopie doo light snows. I know everyone feels what im saying. I just thought I would speak for the majority.
Louis on February 1, 2011 at 4:01 am
I’m actually glad we are missing out on this one. A lot of snow is great, but ice, heavy wind, and sub-zero wind chills accompanying massive snow is not fun.
Lincoln on February 1, 2011 at 4:05 am
CB YOU NEED TO POST THIS ON YOUR PAGE!! HEAVY SLEET/SNOW. OKLAHOMA, thanks to riddlesweather.com 😉
http://www.ustream.tv/channel/test-312
BIll L on February 1, 2011 at 4:16 am
I’m with ya brother. Amen.
Farmer Sharkey on February 1, 2011 at 4:17 am
Oh man,you took the words right out of my mouth…er hands (?)… I’m so weary of getting my hopes up 6 days out only to get 1 inch when the event actually happens. False hope….yes. Woopie doo…hilarious!!
optimistic on February 1, 2011 at 4:27 am
Morehead hovering at 33 degrees, had some “moderate” rain earlier ..right now nothing..I am ONE county away from the weather advisories haha..but if it’s gonna be ice that’s fine..and I have to say AMEN to the earlier posts…no more 2-4 nuisance snows…I have friends in Chicago that are true snow lovers also and they keep texting me rubbing it in..UGGGHHH
optimistic on February 1, 2011 at 4:32 am
Pretty cool video stream …u can see it’s starting to come down hard and hear the wind…SIGH 🙁 haha..Thanks Lincoln for the vid feed ..
optimistic on February 1, 2011 at 4:48 am
am I the only one on here now? LOL…Just reading the reports from other areas..since “they” are STILL talking about the uncertainty of the track of this system is still possible for to track even further South affecting more of Kentucky? Will we not know unti it’s happening?
MikeM on February 1, 2011 at 5:00 am
The problem with the blog, and no disrespect meant to Chris, is that it covers a wide geography. Eastern Ky and West Va. are going to get snow. I feel like a red headed stepchild residing in beautiful central Ky. We hear of the potential, lows riding up the east coast, gonna come west, but the end result is always the same. 33 to begin, 32 and an inch or two accumulation to end. I need a snow 5-8 inches so I can snow board down our back yard with my kids without breaking my shoulder and who knows what other body parts on hard frozen tundra. To Quote again Brother Bubba, CB rocks but Central KY winters sux. I’m on board the cruiser.
BIll L on February 1, 2011 at 5:13 am
Its not coming my friend. Nothing to see with this one. Looks like Winter forgot us again.
mitch on February 1, 2011 at 5:40 am
friday-saturday system trending west on gfs as expected. 00z cmc brings smiles for snow!
patty on February 1, 2011 at 6:27 am
Would it be like the all the rest of snow we’ve gotten more or less??
feederband on February 1, 2011 at 10:21 am
There’s nothing to see here, move along. Probably nothing to see this weekend or next week. The pattern is set and will be hard to break. We will get snow but nothing of significance IMO.
MarkLex on February 1, 2011 at 11:39 am
I’m not getting the talk about snow next week? It looks like daytime high temps will be in the low 40s
Snowcat on February 1, 2011 at 5:57 pm
Anyone wish to give some jerks down the road about bad mouthing Bailey feel free to go to the following Topix site and nail them. I’ve given my two cents so any others feel free to join.
http://www.topix.com/forum/city/louisa-ky/TJ8C9F876RK2S0AI7/p2#lastPost

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