10PM Update
Good evening folks. The light snow has arrived across parts of central and northern Kentucky and will continue to push southeastward overnight. This can lay down a quick inch or two in some areas in the north and east with a general 1″ or less for many areas all the way back into central Ky.
A Winter Weather Advisory is out for northeastern Ky into early Friday. Some slick roads will be likely later tonight and early Friday in the north and east.
The storm early next week is showing up very well on the models and is likely to take on a colder look in the coming days. That is an awful lot of arctic air pushing southward into the country and that should mean snow would be the dominant precip type for most.
A full update will come your way in a few hours… probably just a bit earlier than normal since your friendly weather dude has to be up super early in the morning to talk weather with some energy people from across the state. Versailles here I come! 
On a side note… what did I miss on our buddy Rolo? I see a lot of comments about thoughts and prayers to him… not sure what’s up but we will send them out as well.
Take care.
Previous Update
Good Thursday afternoon gang. A weak clipper will work into the state from the northwest later tonight and put down a light snowfall. The best chance to pick up an inch or two will be in the north and east and this should fall just in time for the Friday morning commute.
Here is a look at where the clipper may drop some snow…
The timing on this light snow should have a negative impact for Friday morning travelers and likely means more students will be able to sleep in again.
You can follow the clipper snows here…
In terms of the storm potential for next week… the GFS Ensembles and the GFS say the Groundhog better like snow and ice…
Tuesday Night
Wednesday Morning
Again… there is a BIG difference in this storm and the last as there will be a ton of arctic air to the north and northwest of this bad boy. Areas on the north and west side of the low won’t have to rely on the storm creating it’s own cold air.
More updates on this storm later this evening so check back. Have a great rest of your Thursday and take care.
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Thanks Chris. Looks like we are getting back on the rollercoaster for another ride for next week, huh? Ah well, this is the only kind of rollercoaster that I can stand to ride! 😉
North and West side. Would that be Central KY?
Taken verbatim, the GFS solution would yield snow for areas north of the Bluegrass and Western KY Parkways. South of those areas sleet/freezing rain. I would NOT get worked up about this system just yet. The potential is there for sure, but these models will flip-flop through the weekend.
So would that mean a cold rain or maybe some ice for the lake cumberland area??
Obviously not us- that would mean snow 😉
Dont hold your breath…..
Will East Ky see any frozen precip next week or cold rain?
I am thinking ice ATM. Seems mainly snow for some and ice for others. Will not even pretend to know who gets what ATM, but perhaps more southern areas may be wanting to prepare if CB mentions ice.
Outlooks for ice have been VERY accurate.
Again, think snow or cold rain 🙂
So could Lexington see about an inch of snow out of this clipper?
You must have been updated during my last post…I mentioned that the clipper looks like it will miss the Lou. area and pull more to the north/east…SNOW and ICE for next week. I will wait until Monday before I get to excited.
Thanks for the updates…
and….were off!!! here we go again!!!!.LOL…
LOL, I agree!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
If mets are outlooking ice tomorrow, bet on it, since even local mets forecast for ice events have been very accurate, four days or less out.
CB starts mentioning it and hinting of alerts……. 😉 🙁
For some reason the maps aren’t showing up on my computer right now. Is the Lexington area expected to get anything out of this clipper tonight as of snow, or will it stay all North of 64?
gotta feeling, with artic air in the picture next week, SOMEONE,SOMEWHERE in the south could get a bad ice storm…def. something to watch for..i just hope its not us
Roloooooo! My prayers are with you! Wish the weather would give us a big-un to boost your spirits 🙂
Just read previous post and for sure I think all of our prayers are with Rolo.
I’m curious as well. I can’t see the maps on my computer and was wondering if Lex would see anything out of this clipper or if it would stay above 64? If that inch is coming to Lex, should be an interesting morning for Fayette Co. Schools after yesterday’s debacle!
“Areas on the north and west side of the low won’t have to rely on the storm creating it’s own cold air”..I agree, the way things “usually work”,,,Lex/Richmond will see ice or cold rain…north/west of lexington probably see snow//
After looking at the models above, it appears as if most of the state would be in for a cold rain. Am I reading this wrong or is this assumption correct?
Looking at the maps above, it appears most of the state would be in for a cold rain. Am I reading this wrong, or is this assumption correct?
I agree with those who are thinking ICE. IF it played out like the 12Z data shows, that would basically be a massive ice storm for Kentucky, worse than the December ice storm we had recently. This is BAD news and we can only hope that the GFS is handling this wrong right now.
After looking at the models above, it appears to me as if most of the state (especially SE KY) would be in for a cold rain. Am I reading this wrong or is this assumption correct?
Does it not appear as if most of the state, especially SE KY, is in for cold rain?
IMO Ice is more easier to forecast than snow and what region it is going to affect.Warm air aloft,cold air mass below it,ground temp at 32.If these 3 things are in place by monday Lookout.Of course its along way until Monday and its like goldie locks and the 3 bears “Everything has to be just Right”..But like you said southern areas and for that matter all of us need to keep an eye out on this one.
So the clipper will miss us altogether, huh? Thats ok… I’m tired of kids missing school for 1-4 inches of snow, LOL!
So…..NEXT!!
But, PLEASE NO ICE!! 🙁
didn’t someone call that the “rolo-coaster?”
I started noticing a couple of years ago that winter storms tend to like Tuesdays and Wednesdays more than any other day of the week around here. Hmmmm. Just a silly observation. haha
I wasn’t able to log on the last couple of evenings and just read up on Chris’ blog ..REALLY CHRIS? You are beating yourself up over this last storm?? While not everything turned out EXACTLY how you thought..you were MILES ahead of the rest..and we all appreciated ALL the hard work/effort you put into it..there were as I said before, just too many dynamics going with this storm for it all to happen “just right” for everyone!You are still the best! Now with that being said, on to the NEXT one haha..and hopefully it’s all snow for Morehead! 🙂
Rolo, I am so sorry you are like family although I have never met you we will pray so hard for you. We need you where else are we going to get great comments from our buddy Rolo….
12z ECMWF thermal profiles are much colder than GFS and show a all snow event for the state.
That means the low will miss us to the south then, dealing a glancing blow at best.
Best of luck, Rolo, we will be praying for you! 🙂
Darth Bubba approves of this eager apprentice 😉
I like what I see out of next weeks storm., however.. Someone will get N ice storm. And a Nasty ice storm at that.
I’m betting $500 on my boy Rolo…!
God Speed my friend….
GO STEELERS..!!!
Rolo,
You take care boy! Get better!
SW
rolo i’m a fellow clay countian, and have had and am still having the cancer battle within my family. i certainly know what your feeling at this point. i’m so sorry to hear you are facing this and hope your treatment does it’s job and that you are cancer free and healthier than ever when all is done. god bless you and keep you strong during this time. 🙂
Hmmmm. I really noticed that he used the words “Bad Boy” to describe this upcoming storm.
Nothing but love for ya Rolo…
I wish this next low would track about 60 miles further south than the last one did, and had the same precip shield as the last one. We MIGHT be able to break a 5″ mark somewhere in the Bluegrass then.
We could REALLY use high pressure over lake Michigan. One of the critical pieces of a giant snow here is for that high pressure to be over Michigan/Lake Michigan. But I’m not seeing an H anywhere in that vicinity on the GFS maps.
Rolo – So sorry to hear this news. PLEASE keep your spirits up while we all pray for you!! Best of luck with your treatments. I’ll be thinkin of ya.
ROLO good luck always enjoy reading your comments. I’m here several times a day. Keep up the good work Chris, my whole family calling me to see what you have yo say about the weather.
Thanks for the updates Chris! Can’t wait to see how this one plays out. Maybe Middlesboro / SE KY can get in on the action this go’ round! 🙂
Rolo, just started reading here recently and like I said earlier, always enjoy your posts and your humor. Don’t let it get ya’ down man, keep smiling, the Weather Gods will take care of you!
Here is the most reason forecast discussion from the NWS in Jackson. I just copied and pasted the most relevant details:
EXPECT A STORM SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY IN THE WEEK AND MOVE INTO THE EASTERN U.S. BUT
HAVE NO CONFIDENCE ON DETAILS AT THIS TIME. SO…SPEAKING IN GENERAL
TERMS…WILL OFFER A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE DECREASING THE POPS TO END THE PERIOD. THE POTENTIAL IS THERE
FOR A MAJOR WINTER STORM NEXT WEEK…BUT THE POTENTIAL HAS BEEN
THERE IN THE DAY 4 THRU 7 PERIOD ALL WINTER LONG IT SEEMS. WILL JUST
LET THE MODELS SETTLE DOWN AND KEEP THE WORDING BENIGN IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT THIS TIME.
rolo,
sorry to hear what your going through. say alot of prayer and all of us praying for you will bring you through with a clean bill of health.I BELIEVE IN MIRACLES!!!!!!!!!!
So sorry Rolo, keeping you in my prayers also! Keep the Faith.
I say we all pull all prayers for any big snows and direct them to Rolo. He makes the blog a better place and was one of the first to welcome me when I started posting. Pulling for ya Rolo.
Looking at radar, looks like central ky may get in on a little snow. I know that defies logic but even a blind squirrell finds a nut every once in a while.
Any updates on what Lexington, Fayette County could be seeing out of this clipper? An inch sure would be nice. It’s definitely cold out.
Rolo, don’t you do this to me, you gotta get better, I can’t keep this bunch tame by myself. {{{{hugs}}}}
I love snow as much as the next person. In lou. all we receive is nickel & dime snowfalls. If we do not receive a substantial snowfall next week, I say lets put up the shovels & sleds & move on to spring. I would even take a week of warm weather & then back to cold and snow.
This has been a nickel and dime winter. How many systems has it taken for Lexington to reach the 24 inch mark?
This is the snowiest winter since 1995-1996, but in 1995-1996 we had one 10 inch system in January and another 8 inch in March, followed by a good snow in April.
Have we ever had a “Top 10” season without a significant snowfall?
I’m just going to ask the question everyone else wants to ask…
Will I be out of school tomorrow?
Even though I don’t post often on here, I read the blog daily, and try to catch every update, I just learned today of your condition Rolo, even Though I don’t know you personally you seem like a close friend to me, You were one of the first to answer any questions I had about the weather models, and you along with some others made me feel welcome here, I will be praying for you ole buddy, and I wish you a very speedy recovery, miracles do happen, you just gotta believe. Be strong bud and don’t give up the fight, cause what would this blog be without ya, you will be back to your old self before ya know it.
Best wishes,
John H
Right now only threat i see for maybe some ice is north of Lex.(owen,grant,Harrison).In that general area..Rain or mix for the rest of us.But what do i know.I just look at the models an guess like 98% of the people on here.Still to early to really comment about anything.IMO
yeah ik i want to know to i live in madison county
Rolo
get well soon buddy, I will be prayin for ya
Rolo, I have not had the pleasure to talk to you but your rumor and kindness are widely known. Here’s to your health, buddy.
i really hope i dont have school tomorrow chris do you think madison will get some pretty good snow maybe an inch.
My guess this will be the lowest snow to event ration on record:
Example-
24″ : 12 event = 2
Agreed.
If we had managed some big events in the rotation we would be talking 1978 type totals (around 40 inches) already.
good to see your not referring to yourself in the 3rd person this time 😉
definitely a season of miss opportunities in this part of the state. Reminds me of uk football.
After a long day, i was finally able to update my website. I think clipper should disrupt the morning commute for many. But never know the way this week has been 😉
Rolo, hang in their chief. Cancer SUCKS.
Rolo, Keeping you in my prayers….
You are on our prayer list at church Rolo. As someone who is 7 yrs free, I can relate, hang in there… praying God hold you tight in His arms & see you through this…
I’ll probably still tease you unmercifully about your weather ‘predictions’ though… lol 😉
@rollo: I’ll be thinking about you buddy! I’ve been reading your posts for better. Than the last three years or so. If you don’t mind me asking where are you taking treatment at?
I’m at fault there, but Rolo rolls that way 😉
Should have typed “ratio”, but we are kind of in a ration for snow, since all small servings 😉
Our little clipper friend seems to be picking up steam!
Nothing is hitting the ground yet in Shelbyville.
Yep. The two most frustrating and disappointing things in Kentucky- UK football and snow.
Well Bubba what do you think our little clipper will do in the morning for Pike county?
Rolo I know you will do great I worked 5 years in a cancer center I have seen many miracles.Praying for you.
Nice little verga storm here in Frankfort!
Temp 31
Chris,
You think the moisture will mainly be verga tonight?
Bubba is my alter ego 🙂
CB has it pegged well, IMO 🙂
Rolo would not want it any other way 😉 🙂
I totally agree!!! No more snow prayers. Rolo I wouldn’t know you in a room full of people but I feel like I know you as a friend from this blog. I will be praying for you daily. Please keep us posted. God still performs miracles!
Rolo: I have enjoyed reading your posts for a very long time. Your humor and candid view of everything from weather, horses, and family are always a treat. I will be praying for you. You hang in there dude…Cancer is mean…but you ol’ buddy are meaner…
radar looks good…but nothing falling here in Northern Scott Co.
Best of everything to you, Rolo. My family will be keeping you and yours lifted up in prayer.
ROLO: Just now catching up with the news. Hang in there buddy. Cancer sucks. I’ve got an aunt and uncle who are survivors, when they shouldnt be. So, yeah I know miracles happen. Keep your humor, spirit and fight. We are all thinking of and praying for you. God bless you buddy!
The blog hasn’t been updated in forever, I feel like our great weather man may be disheartened in alot of people of the blog for being so mouthy towards him on his miss on the last snow storm. Rolo, many prayers going up for you, I wish you a full recovery.
Rolo, i read this blog everyday, but i almost never post here…. Justed wanted you to know ill be praying for you & your family. And i hope everything goes your way man, Please keep us posted….
And on that thought….. Has anyone seen Chris Bailey, i havent had my updated weather blog fix for the night lol….. i guess i am gonna have to turn on fox 56 10pm news oh i hate to lol……
Light snow is falling in Shelbyville.
NWS Louisville, KY
Zone Forecast: Madison County
Overnight…Light snow likely. Snow accumulation around 1 inch. Near steady temperature around 30. Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of snow 70 percent.
So, when you going to update…???? Also, do you have a time prediction on when the snow will arrive…Late Thursday night?? or early Friday morning???
Rolo, keeping you in our thoughts and prayers….hang in there!!!
Hang in there ROLO…Our prayers and thoughts are with you…
The snow in Illinois looks to be gaining strength should be a decent band.
Hey there Chris. Read Rolo’s post on your earlier Thursday post. You’ll get it straight from him.
Hang in there Rolo! 🙂 <3
LOL.Are ya wanting to miss school there kiddie.Don’t worry about missing school,think about going.Get up every morning an say i want to go to school today.I need knowledge today,I want to learn so i can be the best i can be.Ya never know,you may grow up to be famous like CB.
well this installment of “as the weather churns” has brought me to tears. when was the last time you were involved in a group of absolute strangers, who talk almost daily and will more than likely never meet, drop to their knees and lift up a friend in prayer. you guys are absolulely amazing. i am so happy to have found you all.
Prayers to you Rolo. you bring wit and humor to the blog and we luffs ya!
oh yeah, bring on the snow!
Prayers to you Rolo! I don’t know anyone who hasn’t been touched by cancer in some way, but personally going through it is another thing entirely. I am definitely newer to this blog, but have already enjoyed your fun(ny) posts and sense of humor. I’ve seen miracles happen — my own grandmother had a meager 5% chance of surviving her own bout with cancer back when I was in 6th grade… I’m 28 now and she’s still here raisin’ hell :O)
Keep your spirits up and know you’ve got a lot of people praying for you!
Pouring the snow in Dry Ridge. Roads are beginning to cover!
Rolo,
I know what you’re goin’ through. My father passed on the 16th from Cancer. He was 4 days shy of his 74th b’day. He worked & was outside doin’ something everyday. The day b4 he started his chemo, he was bush hoggin’ on the farm. His family didn’t want him to take it, he thought if he did, he’d live longer for us all. God wanted a great backhoe & dozer operator & my Daddy was one of the best.
My thoughts & prayers are with you & your family.
Would you please post the active radar link… I always visit this page to see what is showing up on the radar and it isn’t here anymore. 🙁
Chris, where will you be speaking in Versailles? I know patty would love to hear you speak as would I. Let us no and we will be there.
starting to rain/snow in Bath…light covering on vehicles.
Hey Mell
Prayers for Rolo…you can conquer this Rolo…hang in there…the blog needs you. 🙂
Rolo,
Here’s wishing for a great visit at the doctor. Hope everything goes well. We’ll be praying for our clay county friend.
Only been with the blog a couple months, instantly I look forward to your comments Rolo. You’re to d#@$ stubborn not to kick this things a$$!!
I don’t know your faith Rolo..it seems to me like we all have the same God. I don’t know if you are religious etc, so no offense meant when I say that I lit a candle for you in our church this evening and said a prayer for healing, strength, courage and peace of mind. I believe in prayer. Bless you.
I don’t always get to be able to be online due to my internet connection, so I think I missed out on what has happened to Rolo? Obviosly it’s health related..and the people on here are right, he was one of them who welcomed waaay back when I first found this site….since the site would not be the same w/out him, whatever is going on with him will simply work itself out! He has to be here 🙂 I echo the sentiments of everyone else in here…my prayers are with you/.your family and we all love you man 🙂
I actually think the most likely solution is the one on the 00z gfs a classic cold rain track with a low cutting into KY then transfering to the east coast. maybe ice on the front end and ending as flurries.
thinking of you rolo. good luck!
Hey Rolo! Even though we fight on insignificant crap like the weather, I and my gang are praying hard for you! May God bless you and keep you strong!! 🙂
Sending up prayers for you Rolo!!
Some kind of precip is falling in Ravenna, as of a few minutes ago. Feels like rain mixed with sleet.
to our friend rolo,
thres power in prayer if you’ll believe
he’s standing right there for you to recieve
for the problems you face
he’s all that you need
theres power n prayer
he’s the God that cant fail when friends let you down
so cast all your cares on him cause i’ve found
he can take the heart ache and turn it around
theres power in prayer
rolo, by gods stripes, we are healed, pray for gods will, i dont know your religion, but you will be prayed for, i hope you are born again and saved, god is the only one to turn to in situations like this, you will be in my thoughts
I always read, but have never posted. Just wanted to let rolo know my prayers are with him as well. And Chris, you are awesome! Keep up the excellent work with the blog. I always look forward to the updates and everyone’s thoughts.
Rolo,
My thoughts and prayers are with you and your family.
Check out the temps to the west. Looks like everyone is going to warm up tonight.
Look at the temps out to the west. Warmer temps. tonight.
I’ve been a reader of the blog for a couple of years now and along with Chris’s post I always look to see what Bubba and Rolo has to say! Rolo, hang in there! My prayers are with you!!
ROLO, I HOPE EVERYTHING GOES WELL AND I HOPE YOU PULL THROUGH WITH NO PROBLEMS. YOU ARE A FRIEND TO THE ENTIRE BLOG AND I THINK IT IS PRETTY OBVIOUS YOU HAVE BOOKOODLES OF PEOPLE WHO CARE ABOUT YOU. TAKE CARE MY FRIEND.
Praying for Rolo as I watch the snowfall in Ashland, wondering what the schools will decide in the morning…
Rolo my prayers are with you and I know you will overcome this and everybody on this blog is pulling for you and all our prayers will be answered and you will be as good as new and back to helping CB predict the weather and handicapping thoroughbred horse racing to !!!
sorry to here about your situation rolo down there in gunchester,i have no firsthand or any idea what your going through but try to find hope in someone or something.
on another not about 1.2” of wet snow fell here tonight quickly across covington area
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