Good Thursday everyone. We are rolling toward the final weekend of January and old man winter is showing no signs of letting up as we head into February. This has been a wild and wooly winter for much of the country and that certainly holds true for the bluegrass state.
There will be little rest as the pattern is going to throw some snow at us again later tonight and Friday and has that “look” again for the first half of next week. More on that in a bit.
Our short term weather will find some leftover batches of very light snow and flurries across parts of the area today… especially early. Highs will range from the low 30s east to high 30s to near 40 west.
A fast moving clipper will be diving southeastward into the Ohio Valley tonight into Friday and will bring a swath of light accumulating snows with it. The best chance for up to an inch or so of snow will be across northern and eastern Kentucky just in time for the Friday morning commute. Under an inch of accumulation will be possible all the way into central parts of the state.
The GFS seems to have a nice handle on the clipper snows…
Another clipper or two will follow this one up into the coming weekend. The next one arrives on the scene Saturday and should take a track a bit farther north than the one tonight.
GFS Ensembles Saturday Morning
That may have enough juice for a burst of some light snow and flurries in the north and some sprinkles in the south and southwest. There may be a third system diving into the region late Sunday, though I’m not sold on that one yet.
That brings us to next week and what is likely to be another winter storm for the eastern half of the country and more forecasting headaches around here. If one looks at the models… you see they have a similar look to the storm we just had…
GFS Ensembles Tuesday Evening
Canadian Model
While the “model look” may be the same… the overall pattern is vastly different as an arctic outbreak is diving southward into whatever storm should form. Where that low goes, how strong it gets and what kind of precipitation it will bring us remains to be seen. I am simply pointing out that another storm will try to form next week and impact the weather around here. This is actually a time frame we highlighted for a storm several days ago. As always… we shall see.
I will have more updates later today so check back. Until then… take care.
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Thanks Chris!
My Fav Weather Channel Music
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A-LS1brYSOI
Boy, I sure wish that Canadian model would pan out!
with this last storm it really is amazing how the models were about 150 miles to far east with the heaviest snows, and that even goes for inside 24 hours, its kind of interesting i mean western ky wasnt suppose to even be in the game at all. now how about some snow love for nky cb?!
I’m not buying the Canadian model this time. A couple of storms back, the Canadian showed huge amount of precipitation for our area. Played out staying south & up the east coast. DGEX suggest moisture staying far south. My take, is DGEX suggesting the low riding along the trough settling in over our area around Feb 3rd. Canadian has shown to be champ a few times but I’m not counting this one…
WXman, you suggested that you were nailing these storms and you were going to go out 7 days on the next one. Here is your shot! What’s your take on the early Feb storm? Rolo, love to hear your predictions on this too, a few hours after it has pasted of coarse.
Hey, very nice blog and I would like to visit again!! I will bookmark your blog and take the feeds also…
If it was me, I would play it safe. I would forecast that the system would start out as rain and then a change over to snow. The majority of the system would be rain. Higher snow accumulations to the north. Historically that would be the sure bet. But of course, this winter has been different.
RS SMART RUMP LOUIDSVILLE i never podst my thoughts after it pasted.
i posted YT yesterday next system and rest of feburay be rain/ with little mix with the usual 1 or 2 inch snow on backside.
there be no MAJIOR WINTER STORMS rest of winter except maybe scott county north.
This is true SMART RUMP he did predict yesterday that the next system and rest of February would be rain/mix with 1 to 2 of snow on the backside…. lol
The next storm will do one of two things….Track up the app mtns bringing western ky moderate snow with south central/south eastern ky cold rain followed by a light dusting to 1 inch. The other scenerio takes the track of the low to our south and off the coast dealing southeast ky a glancing shot of light snow….13 years of history to back up my thinking on this. It is just the way it is. Until a trend busting storm rears its head, this will be my take on all southern systems.
About the snow totals- yep, but STILL no big snow for central KY. The two times since 98 we actually got hit were both brutal ice storms. Big zero besides that.
Perhaps a similar system coming our way Monday. Where do we want to place bets on what the main precip will be 😉
Even CB has stated these are the systems he is least accurate with, since the results have not been panning out.
MikeM,
Who was thumping their chest? Nobody got this right, since the result was inverted (west & east). Bubba mentioned the rain factor since the get-go, but that does not equate to an accurate forecast. All I did was refer to past events and how they have played out with the more southern-fed systems.
THIS is why central KY has not gotten and “old school” big snow since 98. These type of systems suddenly stopped panning out- unless ice.
wake me up monday morning when we start nowcasting..!!!
Based on the last even, speculating on a similar type system seems superfluous at the moment. Heck, 24 hours out would be 😉
These systems are where the infamous 33/32 degree “law” was created (in my mind at least).
ECMWF has gone from a lakes cutter to a track along the east coast with snow for TN. Also think set-up is there for freezing rain in spots as well.
Thanks, Chris. So, a little light stuff overnight, and then sprinkles on Saturday? And another storm brewing for somebody. Gotta love KY weather. And the old adage is, once again, reinforced…if you don’t like the weather in KY, stick around….it WILL change! 😉 Have a GREAT day, everyone!
Lofty AND bold 😉
Even central KY could get a mega clipper like last year that was our biggest snow since 98 (about 7″). The killer that breaks folks hearts and confounds CB are the more southern-fed systems that used to be our big-snow makers. Since 98, they have been mainly cold rain or ice- every single time.
The last system was so wacky it turned into Now “what?!” forecasting 😉
Wxman said the models did really well on this past storm……
Did the models show 4 to 6 inches of snow for western KY?
Why is it that the same system that drops a meager few inches here ends up dumping 10″ when it reaches the east coast?
I believe the JMA and UKMET were consistant on the precip across the entire state. Just did not fall as the type of precip most wanted to see.
Your right Bubba, nobody got it right although there was one regular poster, not you, who claimed to have nailed it. Probably shouldn’t have commented on it but it struck a nerve. Chris is right a ton more than he is wrong and I just felt this guy crossed the line with his enthusiasm. He’s not even close to the same league as Chris. Not gonna beat the dead horse anymore.
Once these systems meet the coast they are able to pick up moisture off the Atlantic Ocean…Kinda of like lake effect snows up north off the Great Lakes…
Everybody talks about “OlD SCHOOL SNOWS”.I grew up in the 60’s and 70’s and lived here all my life.Sure we got some big snow’s in the past,but as i recall they didn’t happen every year.But the way some people are talking it’s like everytime it snow’s it suppost to be a foot or more.Well news break,it’s not gonna snow a foot every time a system rolls through.I’ve not looked at the data but would bet the average snow fall for the last 30 years is probably no more than 15 inches during the winter month’s. .with eastern being a little more.If you look at the big snow storms of the past there few and far between.So the term “OLD SCHOOL SNOWS” are a myth to me.If you get more than 6 inches consider yourself lucky.Sry folks but that’s just the way the “Climate” ball bounces in Ky..P.S also when growing up in that era i puffed but didn’t inhale
going in for treatment monday they starting early and being agressive this time as it spread to other areas. sopmetimes when u get rid of it cancer i stays away but most time it comes back. to the liver. so my day are numbered.
but hey miracles happen.
I think this little clipper tonight could drop a good solid 1 inch to 1.5 inches in a hurry right at the morning commute, that is above the 64 corridor. But I do see Lexington getting 3/4 inch or so by the morning rush hour.
Don’t know you, enjoy your posts and sense of humor. DOnt comment much.
This made me sad. Best wishes through the ordeal – again. Of course, facing your mortality with such certainty is no fun I am sure (dont know so cant speculate). Even so, we are all in the same boat with numbered days. See ya on the other side – whenever that may be and hopefully a long time from now for both of us – relatively speaking. And yes, they do.
Man,sry to hear about your condition rolo…My wife works with cancer patients.If you Don’t mind me asking where are you having your treatments at…Good luck and God Bless…
Thats a big negative!
Always enjoy reading your posts Rolo…..Wish you the best and hope all goes well with treatment. Hang in there!
You’re certainly in our prayers rolo.
Let’s hope this next system don’t “Hoo-Doo” us here in SE KY like the last one did. I want to see that 12″ Plus storm before Old man Winter rides his train outta here this year!
Praying for a miracle for you Rolo….I enjoy reading your posts and you certainly liven things up around here….think positive healing thoughts friend 🙂
I love the first words in this story from the AP:
“A storm that had been predicted for days caught much of the East Coast off guard with its ferocity, tearing through with lightning, thunder and tons of wet snow, stranding thousands of road, rail and air travelers, and leaving more than 400,000 customers around the nation’s capital without power Thursday.”
“predicted for days”-“caught off guard” hilarious.
Hey guys I am seeing some light snow here in Paintsville and wondering about the clipper that is supposed to work in here tonight…..how much snow and when does it start? I’m already sucked in to the Monday scenario but I think we’re all kinda “once bitten twice shy”!! Hope for snow but not getting my hopes up. Anyway, I need info about tonight 🙂
Hey guys I need some opinions about tonight’s clipper. How much, where at, and what time???
Praying for you Rolo!
12z gfs shows an ice storm for the state tuesday. this is a possibilty but still only 1 run.
Would have to agree.Best setup i seen this winter for some possible ice..
Crippling ice strorm for central east my snowstorm for brandons backyard and northern Kentucky hahahah
Mitch! Please don’t bring up the I word!!!!!
Oh Bob Saget!
I agree Mark. It has been that way for years though. Frankly, it is one of the reasons I do not post as much as I used to anymore. That, and I just don’t have the time.
I wish people who think they have better/more skills would produce their own blog and forecast.
Prayers sent….good luck buddy.
Hence my ” 😉 ” up above. Too much history since 98 for these type of systems to refute. Mainly cold rain or ice- pick your poison. I wish we could pick 🙁
Folks you KNOW the drill. Our two big ice storms were these type of systems and were nailed days ahead of the even. Snow forecasts days ahead hve been about 100% wrong and ice 100% correct.
IF the solution is saying ice tomorrow- watch out. Cold rain is not so bad afterall 🙂
Think snow or think rain 🙂
I will be praying for you!
You’re in my thoughts and prayers, Rolo. Stay strong!
I meant Mike. lol sorry
So sorry to hear your news Rolo. I don’t post much here, but I always enjoy reading what you have to say. :o)I have witnessed 2 miracles in my life. They are real.
Great forecasting Chris! If you were always perfect, I’d have you picking my lottery numbers!
Your following is continuing to grow like crazy…When are we going to see a Chris Bailey app for the iphone?? That would be pretty cool!
My interest is in the clipper for late tonight and tomorrow and how it will effect us in EKY….it seems to have a pretty impressive moisture supply so what are we thinking about accumulations?
Rolo, I serve a God who specializes in miracles. He is a God that heals when all seems lost. I am praying for you daily. Keep us posted so we can rejoice in your miracle!!!
Praying that everything goes well. You are right, Miracles do happen.
This makes my 4th attempt at posting about tonights clipper….moderation sucks! How much accumulation, when and where? It seems to have decent moisture.
Susan, that’s what I would call an “oxymoron”.
Glad we didn’t have it that bad.
Thats a great idea.
Looks like tonights clipper will stay well to our North. NTHKY looks to get hit…
ROLO..Hang in there…This blog needs you…My thougths and prayers are with you.
I am not speculating on next week’s storm re: ice, but I am wondering why you keep saying that 13 years is such a big “history.” 13 years is irrelevant in terms of geological time. How far back do we have data for storms? 75 years at the most?
Again, I am not saying you are wrong, but I don’t think referring to the last 13 years has any weight. There has been a pattern during this time with “old school” systems. However, it is one that I think can change with any system. Just my uneducated thoughts.
I don’t often comment but check the blog several times a day. I always enjoy your posts Rolo. Will be praying for you.
Rolo,
I have nothing but love for ya. Love everyone here.
Makes sense. Cool, thanks!
Praying right along with everyone else. Keep laughing! That really helps.
So what will this mean for SE Ky? I feel seriously snow jipped from the last system!
Thanks for providing such useful information. I really appreciate your professional approach. I would like to thank you for the efforts you made in writing this post. I am hoping the same best work from you in the future as well.
I really appreciate your professional approach. These are pieces of very useful information that will be of great use for me in future.
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