Good Friday, folks. Our Labor Day weekend is kicking off some some absolutely gorgeous weather across Kentucky, but will it stay that way? Unfortunately, the answer is no as we track a few showers and storms across the state starting Saturday.
Our Friday is another good one as we start things out with readings in the low and mid 50s with the potential for some upper 40s to show up. A few clouds filter in this afternoon with most areas in the 70s, setting the stage for a pleasant evening for high school football fans.
A cold front works toward us on Saturday with thickening clouds and some showers and storms rolling through. The timing on this action is still a bit up in the air, but it does look like most will see the threat for some rain before the day is finished. This action will increase Saturday night and carry us into Sunday and some of it could be heavy. Here’s how the EURO sees things…
The model is spitting out some 1″+ amounts…
Temps stay cool on Sunday before bouncing up into the upper 70s and low 80s for a fantastic Labor Day.
Another cold front drops in here Tuesday night and early Wednesday and is being pushed by a deep trough…
That likely brings even cooler temps than where we have been over the past few days. Lows may drop into the upper 40s and low 50s…
From there, the tropics are likely to have a say in how the overall pattern plays out across North America. Currently, we have Hurricane Larry and two other items of interest…
I continue to look farther down the weather road toward late fall and early winter and the signal for a fast starting winter continues to show up. I’ve been highlighting this for some time now and the seasonal models have been routinely showing a deep trough across the eastern half of the country. The latest CFS is no different…
A ridge into Alaska with blocking over Greenland would make for one heck of an early season winter pattern. ❄🥶 I’ll be talking more about this in the days and weeks ahead.
Have a great Friday and take care.
It definitely looks like fall has arrived.
I’m cautiously optimistic about our chances for Winter weather in our area. The Moderate La Nina we experienced last year is forecast to continue during Winter ’21/’22. The NAO has been negative for nearly a month, and is forecast to continue that trend, The forecast trend for the AO (Arctic Oscillation) is currently uncertain. However, warmer than normal sea surface temperatures in the Gulf of Alaska will continue to support a strong ridge over Alaska and a trough over Central Canada and the Great Plains, which will encourage a negative AO to stay negative. There are a LOT of ifs in my speculations, which is to be expected so far out, but my gut tells me that Winter 2021/2022 could b this string of lackluster Winters, especially in South Central Kentucky.
I would think that the Pacific Decadal Oscillation would be considered into making any long range seasonal forecast. The PDO is currently in the negative phase which would read as no change to the upcoming Fall and Winter 2021-22. In other words there is a very good chance our Fall and Winter will be a repeat of the Fall and Winter 2020-21 ?
In August 1976 the PDO went from negative to positive and brought on the cold and Snowy Winters in Eastern North America. The warming of the World’s Oceans has caused interruptions to the PDO , which in my opinion has caused our “lackluster Fall and Winters” in the past 10 years or more.
Ocean warming and its effect on the jet stream is the key driver in both scenarios. That warm pool off the coast of Alaska and its accompanying ridge increases the likelihood that the jet will assume more of a sine wave shape, allowing it to tap into a polar air mass, and decreases the establishment of a west to east zonal flow. If, this Winter, a stratospheric heating event temporarily disrupts the Polar Vortex, and we get a repeat of the ridge forming over Greenland as it has for the past several years, the trough over Canada would be positioned to deliver polar air into our backyard.
But these scenarios are speculation on my part, depending on lots of moving pieces to be in place, months down the road. In the end the atmosphere will do what it wants to do!