Good Friday to one and all. Scattered showers and storms are targeting the region today and into the weekend, but things look to get very active early next week. That’s when the threat for some hefty rain totals show up ahead of a fall blast of air.

Temps out there today top out in the 80-85 degree range for many. Scattered showers and storms develop this afternoon and rumble into the evening with the best chance across the southern half of the state. Local downpours are possible during this time and I have your radars ready to track the drops…

The threat for showers and storms will continue into the weekend and the chances may actually start to climb a bit as a little more tropical moisture moves in from the south. You can see this showing up on the GFS through Sunday…

Even there, the action doesn’t look terribly widespread at the moment.

Showers and storms become more widespread Monday and Tuesday as tropical moisture streams in from the south. Heavy rains are a good bet during this time. By late Tuesday and Wednesday, a true fall cold front works into the region…

Temps behind this front are cool, if not chilly, and this means a Pot Of Chili Watch will be issued ahead of this blast of fall. Check out some of the numbers behind this…

Highs in the 60s will likely show up as well.

If you recall, I’ve been showing the Control run of the EURO Ensembles as opposed to the actual Ensembles. Why? It was showing this deep trough a week ago while the Ensembles were showing a blowtorch. This has been something we’ve been seeing more and more of over the past year… The Ensembles cannot see troughs or below normal air very well.

The latest control run of the EURO Ensembles shows a deeper trough coming in behind the system in the week ahead…

The new GFS is also going toward a deeper second trough by next weekend…

The tropics continue to spin up a few systems of interest. We have the system off the east coast that likely stays just off the coast. The one out in the Atlantic is the one likely to form…

Have a great day and take care.