Good Wednesday to one and all. The final few days of September continue to look pretty nice across our region, but the beginning of October looks to change that up. Rainy weather looks to settle into the area over the weekend and that’s a sign of a very active setup through the first week of the new month. I’m also going to take a deeper look into fall.

We do have a weak front dropping through the state today and it’s bringing slightly cooler air across the east compared to the west. This front may, once again, touch off a scattered shower or two across the eastern half of the state, but most stay dry. Here are your radars to see what kind of drops we are dealing with…

Moisture is streaming northward up the Mississippi River Valley today and will arrive in far western Kentucky on Thursday. That brings a few showers and storms into that part of the state. From there, low pressure develops in the plains and slowly marches eastward over the upcoming weekend and into early next week.

The GFS continues to be the most aggressive with the arrival of the rains Friday and Saturday. We see some showers and storms in the far west for Friday with some of that sneaking into central Kentucky later in the day Saturday. From there, we see more widespread action Sunday and Monday…

The model then keeps the threat for showers and some storms going into most of next week…

That’s a very unsettled look with a potent upper low spinning on this model run…

Again, these upper lows have a mind of their own, so model changes are a good bet in the coming days. Still, we are seeing more and more of these closed low scenarios playing out and that’s what I’ve been prepping you guys for since way back in August. This is likely a big fall and winter for upper lows.

Let’s take a deeper look down the road into October and early November courtesy of the Euro Weeklies and the CFS.

The EURO Weeklies start to dig a trough into the east week 3 of the month…

It then cranks that trough even more as we near Halloween…

This idea has support from the CFS 7 day average for roughly the same time…

The EURO Weeklies continue with the trough into the first week of November…

The CFS continues with the trough in the east and a big ridge our west during the same time…

That would be an interesting way to roll out of October and into November!

Make it a great day and take care.