Good Tuesday, folks. We continue with a temperature pattern skewing above normal for the closing days of September, but it’s looking more and more like October starts with an increasing threat for rain. As a matter of fact, it could turn a little soggy around here this weekend into the first part of next week.
Our Tuesday features another windy and seasonably warm day with clouds increasing in the north and northeast. This is ahead of a weak front mainly impacting areas just to our east. Still, this comes close enough for a shower or two to possibly develop across the north and east this evening.
Most stay dry, but your radars are watching the skies for you…
This weak front works in here and splits the state in terms of temps. Areas of central and eastern Kentucky will see the numbers come down Wednesday into Thursday and you can see this on the Hi Res NAM…
From here, the focus of the forecast is on the timing of the weekend system and ensuing rainfall. The GFS continues to be the fastest of the models, bringing the first rains into western Kentucky Thursday and Friday and then across the rest of the state by Saturday…
The Canadian is also trending a little faster and now brings a few showers in on Saturday and keeps the action going through Sunday night…
Both models then bring additional rounds of rain in here next week with an upper level system spinning nearby. Here’s the GFS…
The Canadian…
This is not a pattern that delivers the threat of an early season frost.
Hurricane Sam continues as a major storm that will stay way away from the east coast…
The two systems behind Sam look like they mean business in the coming days, but they are way out in the Atlantic…
Have a great Tuesday and take care.
Autumn weather (frost) continues to be delayed.
Way too early for frost.
Higher than normal Tropical Activity in the Atlantic will delay our first frost and freeze here in the Ohio Valley. I expect any Winter weather to be delayed also. I’ve looked back in years where there was no late Tropical Activity and found frost in mid to late September with a drought going.
A weak La Nina phase of ENSO is expected to slowly form late this Autumn and continue through the Winter months. If we had a very negative NAO, it could bring we Snow Lovers what we been wishing for. We are long overdue for a Cold Snowy Winter in my opinion.