Good Monday to one and all. We are in the closing days of September with the overall weather pattern fairly calm across our pattern fairly calm in our part of the world. Changes do show by late this week into the first weekend of October, but there’s quite the model spread on what those changes mean.

Let’s kick this weather party off with talking about what’s going on out there today. Highs are generally 75-80 for much of central and eastern Kentucky with low 80s in the west.

A weak front drops toward eastern Kentucky late Tuesday into early Wednesday and may spit out a shower in the east. You can see that on the Hi Res NAM…

It’s at this point we begin to see the models diverge on what happens. The EURO has been consistent in showing an upper low developing along the east coast and backing west toward our region. That would give cool and mainly dry weather.

The GFS has something else in mind, though. It’s doesn’t back the upper low to the west and instead develops a plains systems that slowly rolls in here with showers starting Friday and going through the weekend…

The Canadian Model is just a little slower in bringing the rain in here and then keeps it going into the middle of next week…

The GFS brings a deep upper level system in here from the northwest with more showers and chilly weather into the middle and end of next week…

Let’s go to the tropics where things continue to cook. Right off the bat, we have major Hurricane Sam that continues to miss a lot of real estate in the Caribbean…

cone graphic

With the trough along the east coast, Sam is likely to stay well offshore. But, this isn’t the only item of interest as the National Hurricane Center is tracking two big disturbances behind Sam…

Those will likely develop into named systems in the coming days and may eventually work close enough to the states for some concern. Overall, the pattern for October is conducive for another hurricane or two to make landfall in the US.

Make it a magnificent Monday and take care.