Good Sunday, folks. We are putting the wraps on the final weekend of September and looking toward the week ahead in weather. Things look to start very calm and mild, but we will have to watch the eastern skies as the week wears on. That’s where a big upper low forms and tries to work against the grain, impacting our weather.

In the short-term, the weather is pretty darn awesome. Our Sunday starts with temps in the 40s for many, but a pocket of upper 30s may show up again in the colder valleys. Sunny skies will lead to temps in the upper 60s to low 70s for central and eastern Kentucky and low and middle 70s in the west.

The new week starts with highs in the mid and upper 70s with an 80 in the west. Sunny skies will be with us Monday, but a few clouds sneak in from the northeast later Tuesday and those could bring a shower or two to the east.

What happens after this is still up in the air as we wait to see what happens with the system along the east coast. Does it come west this weekend? Does it allow a system in the plains to come east by the weekend? I have questions.

The Control run of the EURO Ensembles continues to bring a more impressive upper low farther west into early October…

We will see how that goes as these types of systems have a mind of their own.

A few days ago, I dropped a little winter weather talk on you guys and said one of my main analogs going forward is 2008. This year has had a lot in common with that year, both on a global index and for the local weather. That year featured our first flakes before Halloween. Some of the more recent seasonal models are hinting at that same potential this year. The GFS Extended snow map through October 29th…

It should be noted that October 2008 was pretty mild before the late season flake action.

Among some of the other years on my list is 2020. This actual weather of this year has been very similar to last year and the global indices line up as well.  2000 is also pretty high on my list. Some of the others are 1989, 1985, 1984, 1974, 1971 and 1950.

I will whittle some of those down once into late October and there are a couple other years that may join the list, depending on how things look over the next month.

Make it a great day and take care.