Good Friday to one and all. We are wrapping up a wet first full week of October with more in the way of scattered showers and thunderstorms, but this action gets out of the way for the weekend. As we look farther down the weather road, bigger changes are showing up for the second half of the month. Those changes should lead to a much chillier setup.
Let’s focus on what’s out there today. Our slow-moving low continues to lift to the north and weaken, but it’s keeping some low-level moisture in place across the region. This may lead to some scattered showers and storms going up across central and eastern Kentucky. Here are your radars…
Outside the scattered stuff will be a mix of sun and clouds and temps in the 75-80 degree range.
There’s still an outside chance for a shower or storm to go up on Saturday, but most of the area looks dry. This dry weather continues into Sunday with upper 70s and low 80s for high temps in the east and middle 80s west.
A weak system makes a run at us by Monday and Tuesday, but this is showing up weaker and weaker as we get closer.
A significant pattern change looks to begin late next week into the following weekend. That’s when a trough rolls in here with more typical fall air…
All models agree on this taking place with the major low in out of the Rockies being the catalyst to bring the change eastward…
EURO
GFS
That’s a seasonable blast of mid October air and it’s likely to be followed up by another blast later in the week of the 18th. This has been a consistent signal on the weekly and seasonal models for some time. For fun (and to get the weather trolls riled up), one of the Thursday runs of the GFS showed a little sumpin sumpin…
That’s the first fantasy run of the GFS to show flakes around here, so it deserves a mention. ❄⛄
Have a great day and take care.
I am SO ready for Fall. It appears that the tropics have finally quieted down, so let the Autumn games begin!
As for Winter, I’ve been looking at some of the analog years that Chris mentioned a few weeks ago, which seem to indicate that December and January will be memorable. Time will tell…
I’m also ready for Autumn weather to begin. Yesterday was like July with the dew point at 67 degrees here in Maple, Kentucky.
Still plenty of time for the Tropical Atlantic to become active as the surface sea temperatures are well above normal.
The lowest temperature in the 10 day outlook for my area is 54 degrees.
Exciting to see the first Winter Storm developing in the Rockies. At least it is something real to tract next week.
3.69″ of rain here in Winchester last night, mostly falling between 6pm and 10pm, with a peak rate of 9.76″/hour. Other parts of town had unofficial reports of 7″, and flooding was reported in several spots around town. Thankfully I live on a hill. Foggy now, this AM.
I’m looking forward to Fall! I just hope we have a Fall for awhile and not rush into the cold weather.
You read my mind.