Good Monday to one and all. We have a cold front plowing across the Mississippi Valley today and it’s bringing severe weather to that region. Some of this action will move into western Kentucky before the day is over. A much stronger system will impact the region by the end of the week and that will unlock a chilly brand of air behind it.
Severe storms have been battering parts of the plains and Mississippi Valley since Sunday. This threat focuses farther eastward today and this gets into the western half of Kentucky this afternoon and evening. Here’s the Severe Weather Outlook from the Storm Prediction Center…
That line weakens majorly overnight into early Tuesday with a leftover shower possible. Temps will come down several degrees.
There’s some indication for a shower or storm going up across the western half of the state on Wednesday and that shows up on the GFS…
The next system is much stronger and brings more widespread showers and storms in here by late Thursday and that may take us all the way into Saturday. Here’s the GFS…
The Canadian is a little slower with a stronger low developing along the boundary…
Temps are way down after this front and lows may reach the 30s as a typical brand of October air arrives. Highs are in the 60-65 degree range.
A deeper trough is likely to show up later next week and the models will vary on location, timing and intensity of this thing. The control run of the EURO Ensembles shows our trough developing into a cutoff…
I may throw you and update later today. Until then, here are your tracking tools for the day…
Current watches
Possible Watch Areas
Make it a great day and take care.
We need rain even know it’s harvest season. I’ve notice our ponds water level is getting low and it concerns me that the drought that has hit central states of the US is spreading to our of neck of woods here in western ,Ky. As far rest the state of ky especially central and eastern part of has had more moisture to deal with.
I know what you mean about the pond “getting low.” I had a Catfish pond on my nursery property in Vanderburgh county in Indiana. I think maybe it had a slight seep leak, but it never went dry because it was spring feed.
We have had little over 2.00 inches of rain so far this month which is above normal for October. It is starting to get dry and these systems coming from the west are lifting north before reaching our area of the state. The cooler “Fall like” weather begins next Monday and the local forecasters are calling for highs in the 60’s and lows in the 40’s.
Real deal Winter is out west in the central Rockies with our nation’s first major Snowstorm. I’m afraid the the storm track will be to our west this coming Winter leaving us with another mild and uneventful Winter. Typical La Nina phase of ENSO. I’m waiting for a change in the Pacific Decade Oscillation from the negative to the positive phase which would indicate ENSO El Nino phase is forming in the tropical Pacific. This phase along with a very negative North Atlantic Oscillation would give us the return to the Cold Snowy Winters of the past. Until then we will have to enjoy the Snow photos provided on the internet.
Hope you receive a good soaking rain soon. The corn harvest has not started here yet. That’s what I notice going into town this morning.
The SPC has issued a Tornado Watch for much of Illinois, including the Chicago Metro Area, until 9 PM. They are very concerned about some supercell storms developing later this afternoon and early evening, with all types of severe weather possible. Tornado Warnings had been issued earlier this afternoon for portions of SW Illinois NE of St. Louis.
No severe weather yet in the Chicago area, just a steady rain with an occasional clap of thunder. It was enough to postpone Game 4 of the ALCS between the White Sox and Houston.
Illinois Mike, it seems like you guys have been the bullseyes for the severe weather here since summer. We been very fortune here when it comes to severe storms this year. Stay safe!