Good Sunday to one and all. Our September run of temps rolls on for a few more days before we finally get fall to take control of the pattern. Once it does. it’s likely to lock in with the potential for things to turn pretty darn chilly for the final few weeks of the month. We will take a look at that and looking longer range into November.
Temps continue to run above normal out there today with a mix of sun and clouds. Similar temps continue into Monday, but a weak cold front works in from the west and brings a round of showers and storms into western Kentucky. This line of showers and storms then fizzles the farther east it gets…
Some of those storms may be strong or severe across western Kentucky. The Storm Prediction Center has a Marginal to Slight Risk out for some…
Temps come down a bit behind this, but bounce right back up ahead of our next system. This one is much stronger and brings a good shot of showers and some storms to the region. It also unlocks more typical mid-October air behind it.
Here’s how the GFS sees this system blowing through here…
The air behind this has a chance to deliver our first frost in about a week or so from now. The models have been showing some 30s for lows…
GFS
Canadian
The seasonal models have been locked onto a late October/early November change for a while now and are even more emphatic on this happening and lasting deep into November. The new run of the EURO Weeklies is showing this very well. Here’s the 32 day average 500mb height anomalies from October 22-November 31 show a healthy trough into our region…
The EURO Weeklies Ensemble average is also on board with this general idea. Here’s the first week of November…
Week 2 of November…
And week 3 of November…
Keep in mind… the EURO Weeklies rarely can find troughs or colder than normal weather so this is a big deal when they actually show this.
The snow maps through November 21 from the Weeklies show flake chances around here…
CONTROL
ENSEMBLES
Obviously, the EURO Weeklies are on board to an earlier than normal start to winter and that’s something I cannot argue with.
Have a great day and take care.
The high temperature at Chicago’s O’Hare Airport on Saturday was 80 degrees, which is 14 degrees above normal for the date. Sunday’s predicted high in the low 80’s will approach the record high for the date of 86 degrees, and will be the fourth day this month the high temp has been at least 80 degrees. Amazing!
October 8th through the 10th marks the 150th anniversary of the great Chicago Fire. The NWS Chicago web site has a complete recap of the fire, and the weather conditions preceding, during, and after the fire. http://weather.gov/lot/1871fire
Interesting history Mike. Thanks for sharing.
Yesterday was another day like July not September and it is going to continue through mid week according to my local forecast.
The real action is forming in the central Rockies with the first major Snowstorm. Severe weather may breakout in the southern plains.
Some forecasters are holding the trough in the west and the ridge in the east for at least the next ten days.
At least we didn’t have July humidity.
The current temperature here in Maple, Kentucky is 81 degrees F.
Humidity @ 54 %
Dew point @ 63 degrees F. (uncomfortable)
Not October like weather more like July weather.
It is weird to have the air conditioning on this time of the year.