Good Thursday, everyone. We have a big time fall system on the way Friday into early Saturday and this will unleash the chilliest air of the young fall season for the weekend. This will then be followed up by a stronger blast of fall air later next week as our late fall/early winter pattern tries to become established.

Southwest winds are gusting up out there today with temps in the 75-80 degree range for many. A mix of sun and clouds will be noted and we are likely to see a scattered shower or storm go up. The best chance is in the north and west as this area is closer to the slowing front. Here are your radars to see what’s popping out there today…

As the front slams in here later Friday into Friday night, a potent line of showers and thunderstorms forms along and ahead of it. With an area of low pressure working along it, instability increases ahead of this and we could be talking about strong to severe storms. The Storm Prediction Center shows the severe weather risk for Friday…

The future radar from the Hi Res NAM brings a line of big time storms out across the state Friday evening…

In addition to the severe threat, winds are going to be a big player and gusts may push close to 40mph at times through Friday night…

Temps crash behind this and do so in a hurry. Friday afternoon temps are deep into the 70s and may hit 80 in the east. Those numbers drop through the 4os behind the front by Saturday morning…

Highs on Saturday generally range from the upper 50s to low 60s on a strong and chilly northwest wind. This sets the stage for the increasing potential for some patchy frost by Sunday morning as temps drop into the 35-40 degree range for many.

The pattern through the middle of next week is seasonable with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s.

The setup late next week into next weekend is likely to feature another big storm system trying to develop as a deepening trough shows up…

That may very well wind up being more of a slow-moving cutoff system that brings some ugly and chilly weather our way.

This should be followed up by another system as the pattern continues to skew colder in the run up to the end of the month…

That’s the latest GFS and it matches the extended models I shared in my last post. You can clearly see how the positive heights are being pushed into eastern Canada allowing for a colder coast to coast look across the country. Can the Appalachian Mountains get some early season flakes from this setup? Maybe.

Have a great day and take care.