Good Wednesday to one and all. We have another gorgeous day across the region as we get set for the first of several systems to roll across Kentucky. This arrives Thursday, bringing a few showers and storms with chilly air surging back in behind it. This sets off a pattern that looks super-duper active to close out October. I’ve got a monster of a post for you guys, so buckle up for the ride.
Temps this morning are mainly in the low and middle 40s, but some of the traditional cold spots may drop into the upper 30s for the 4th straight day. By this afternoon. temps range from the upper 60s to middle 70s depending on where you are.
Winds gust up as clouds filter in ahead of our Thursday front. This system doesn’t have much moisture, but it’s able to produce a broken band of showers and storms with the best chance being across the east and southeast. This is being pushed by a chilly air mass pressing in from the north. With an upper level low spinning into the Great Lakes, it will try to slingshot a couple of showers underneath it and into our region into the start of the weekend…
That’s some chilly air coming in behind this, but how far south it gets is still a bit of a question. The NAM keeps temps in the low and middle 50s for Friday. Check out the numbers from 8am Friday to 8am Saturday…
Seasonable temps will be around for Saturday as clouds return from the southwest ahead of our next rain maker arriving for Sunday and Monday. This is ahead of a surge of milder air returning into the early part of next week. Here’s how the EURO sees it…
The GFS is similar, but the Canadian says let’s bring another shot of chilly air in here behind a deeper low to our northeast…
The pattern for the closing days of October into the start of November will undergo big changes. The transition is on for a pattern reversal with the ridge going into the west and a trough going into the east. The timing on this is tough to nail down, but odds strongly favor this reversal happening.
You can see this on the GFS…
And on the Canadian…
Let’s take a little deeper look down the road into November. We find the new run of the EURO Weeklies going toward a pattern reversal from what we’ve seen in October. This means a ridge in the west and a trough in the east. The Control run of the EURO Weeklies shows this best. Here’s the November average 500mb height anomalies…
The November average temperature departures…
That would, obviously, get winter started early around here with much colder than normal temps. The control run is also seeing snow chances in November…
The average of the 51 member EURO Weeklies also sees the snow chances…
As someone who likes winter to be front loaded for the holidays, I’m liking the looks of the pattern going forward. ❄🥶🎅🎄
I may drop by for another update later today, so y’all check back. Have a great day and take care.
