Tracking Two Potent Storm Systems

Good afternoon, everyone. We continue to track two major storm systems set to impact our weather over this final week of October. The first is bringing gusty winds and a severe storms threat into Monday. The next one arrives later in the week and brings a lot of rain, wind and very chilly temps, unleashing a winter pattern behind it.

Let’s start with the severe storms threat through this evening. This is mainly across western Kentucky where a line of strong to severe storms looks to move in by late evening into the wee hours of Monday. This likely weakens some the farther east it gets and the Severe Weather Outlook from the SPC reflects this…

As the cold front blasts into central Kentucky around midday Monday, a new line of strong to severe storms may develop and impact areas of eastern Kentucky. Here’s the Monday Severe Weather Outlook from the SPC…

Temps behind this front drop very quickly. Watch how fast the 50s and 40s show up on this 8am-8pm temp animation for Monday…

How many low clouds linger into Tuesday? The answer to that question will have a big impact on our temps. With sun, central and eastern Kentucky hit 50-55. With clouds, temps may stay in the upper 40s and that’s what the Hi Res NAM is suggesting. Here’s the 8am-8pm temp animation for Tuesday…

Regardless, this sets the stage for a frosty Wednesday morning across parts of the area. The NAM shows temps way down in the 30s…

If recent warm biases are showing up again, let’s take the under on temps IF skies completely clear out.

The next storm system continues to look like a big time fall storm that’s cut off from the main flow. This will impact every state east of the Mississippi River from late Wednesday into the Halloween weekend. The models are locked in on this and only exhibit some minor deviations from run to run…

Canadian