Good Sunday to one and all. The first of two potent late October storm systems begins to impact the region today and may bring a few severe storms and high winds. The second system quickly follows that up in a few days and introduces a pattern resembling wintertime to begin the month of November.
Let’s start things out with an updated breakdown of how this first system looks to play out:
- A few showers and storms will be possible across the northern half of the state today, especially early on. This comes from a warm front lifting northward.
- Temps will surge into the low and middle 70s for many as lots of dry times show up through the afternoon and early evening.
- A powerful storm system rolls out of the Mid-Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley later tonight into Monday. That drags a cold front across the state Monday.
- Severe storms are likely to develop to our west today and may form one nasty line of storms that gets into western Kentucky late this evening into the wee hours of the morning.
- From there, this line races into central Kentucky late tonight and early Monday and into eastern Kentucky later Monday morning. This will likely be in a weakening phase, but a localized damaging wind threat may persist.
- The front is lagging well behind this line and this gives the atmosphere just enough recovery time to produce a second round of storms Monday afternoon. This looks to pop near the Interstate 75 corridor and race eastward. Unlike its predecessor, this line should strengthen as it moves into eastern Kentucky. Damaging winds, large hail and a quick spinup will be possible.
- With or without severe storms, winds are going to be a major player. Gusts of 40mph-50mph can’t be ruled out from late this evening into Monday.
- Once the front blows through, temps drop quickly through the 50s on a gusty north and northwest wind.
- Lingering clouds and a few showers will then hang around into early Tuesday before some clearing sets in. Highs of 50-55 look common.
As far as today’s severe weather threat from the Storm Prediction Center. The best risk continues to be across the western part of the state…
That risk area focuses farther east for Monday…
Temps behind this system may take us into the frosty 30s Tuesday night.
Our next system continues to look the part of a monster storm in the days leading up to Halloween. Here’s a quick breakdown of how this may play out:
- The timeframe we are dealing with is late Wednesday through Saturday with the chance it lingers into Halloween.
- It’s a slow-moving cutoff storm system with nothing to move it along.
- Rounds of rain will be common during this time with a general 1″-2″ possible.
- Wind gusts may push 30mph on occasion.
- Temps will trend down through this period with a day or two possibly staying in the 40s for highs.
The models continue to be in general agreement with this massive storm system. Let’s take a look at the upper levels to get a look at just how potent this setup is…
CANADIAN
GFS
At the surface, you can see just how much real estate is impacted by this system and just how slow this thing is…
CANADIAN
GFS
The pattern into the first half of November is one that is colder than normal and has a chance to deliver the first flakes of the season to parts of our region.
I will have another update later today, so check back in. Until we arrive at that point, here are the tracking toys you need for the day…
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Current watches
Possible Watch Areas
Make it a great day and take care.
Looks to be a damp crazy week.
It’s a super soaker of a Sunday here in the Chicago Metro Area. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for the southern half of the area from this afternoon through Monday morning, as a large area of 2 to 3 inches of rain is expected.
A cold, steady rain is falling here in the SW Suburbs with a temp of 45 degrees.