Good afternoon, everyone. It’s a super active setup setting up for the final week of October as we have two major fall storms set to impact our weather. The first is bringing the potential for strong storms and high winds with the second one looking like a much colder system

In the overall scheme of things, my thoughts have not changed. Here’s a preview of what to expect with the first system over the next few days:

  • Scattered showers and a storm or two develop this evening.
  • A better shot for some storms will be noted overnight into the first part of Sunday, especially across the northern half of the state.
  • Temps surge into the low and middle 70s for Sunday afternoon as skies become partly sunny.
  • Low pressure works into the Ohio Valley Monday and brings widespread showers and thunderstorms.
  • A few strong to severe storms are possible. The best chance Sunday afternoon and night is across western and central Kentucky. By Monday afternoon, the severe storms chance focuses in the east.
  • Winds are a major player with gusts of 40-50mph a possibility Sunday night and Monday.
  • Much colder air crashes in behind this system Monday afternoon. With lingering clouds and a shower around on Tuesday, temps may struggle to get to 50 across central and eastern Kentucky.

Here’s an animation of this first system from Sunday night through Tuesday evening…

As mentioned, the Sunday severe weather risk is mainly across western Kentucky. Here’s the Severe Weather Outlook from the Storm Prediction Center…

That line of storms may weaken into central Kentucky Monday morning, but there’s the chance it fires back up across the east during the afternoon and evening. That’s where the SPC has a Slight Risk of severe weather…

With or without severe storms, winds are going to be a player. Check out some of these gusts being forecast by the models…

Hi Res NAM

GFS

The trend behind this system is for colder air to get in here and the NAM is doing everything it can to keep our temps in the 40s on Tuesday. Here’s the temp animation from 8am-8pm Tuesday…

The next system continues to look like a monster of a storm in the days leading up to Halloween. This system has been on our radar for a while now and the models continue to settle in on a big time slow-moving storm system…

That continues to spell very windy, very wet and very chilly weather starting late Wednesday through Saturday.

This will be followed up by a series of deep troughs digging into the eastern half of the country for the first week of November…

This is the pattern that can lead to an early beginning to winter around here. There’s an above average chance for the first snows of the season to fall well before Thanksgiving. For fun, the new run of the GFS has this threat in early November. Here’s the snow map through November 7th…

The GFS Ensembles look very similar…

I may throw you another update later today, so check back. Until then, here are your radars to track today’s increase in showers and storms from the west…

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Have a great rest of the day and take care.