Good Saturday, folks. We are watching a very active setup taking shape for the final week of October. This is a pattern that will start with the potential for severe storms before a major fall storm blows in for the days leading up to Halloween. In the overall picture, it’s one trying to lead to an early start to winter.

Let’s start with the first system then make our way toward the monster of a system next week.

Low pressure is developing today across the southern plains and this will roll eastward into the Ohio Valley Sunday night and Monday. This will send a few showers into the region late today into the evening with a little more widespread shower and thunderstorm action late tonight and Sunday as a warm front moves in. The best chance for Sunday storms will be across the northern half of the state as the 70s surge in.

Severe storms will be possible in the Mid-Mississippi Valley into western Kentucky late Sunday and then that risk lowers for Monday. That’s when the low works in with widespread showers and storms around here. Much colder air then sweeps in behind the departing low late Monday into Tuesday…

In terms of severe weather, here’s the Storm Prediction Center outlook for Sunday…

Here’s how the Severe Weather Outlook shakes out for Monday…

With or without severe storms, winds are a big time player late Sunday into Monday. Gusts of 40mph or greater will be possible. Check out the peak gusts from a couple of the forecast models…

Hi Res NAM

GFS

Much colder air then takes control into Tuesday with temps struggling into the low and middle 50s. Lows may reach the 30s by Wednesday morning.

Our next storm system continues to look like a massive storm that literally may encompass much of the eastern half of the country. Since late summer, I’ve been talking about how I expect this to be a fall and winter full of major cutoff upper level systems. We’ve already seen a few, but this one is a biggie…

That’s from the GFS and the model has shaken the progressive bias it was showing recently. Look at how much real estate will be impacted by the storm system…

For us, that means wind, rain and very chilly air from late Wednesday through Saturday.

Following all this continues to be a very amplified pattern that features more troughs in the east as opposed to the west like we’ve seen for much of this month. The GFS shows these temp departure numbers for the first 7 days of November…

I will have another update or two later today, so check back. Here are your radars to track any shower or storm working into the region…

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Make it a great day and take care.