Good afternoon, folks. It’s a windy and milder day out there and tomorrow will do it even better in both categories. This is ahead of a strong cold front ready to roll through here with a temp change for Thursday. The real show then arrives just in time for Thanksgiving week as the turkey looks rather cold this year.

Temps today hit the 60-65 degree range for many with plenty of sun. Highs flirt with 70 on Wednesday as southwest winds crank to 30mph during the afternoon. Those winds may gust to 40mph Wednesday night and Thursday morning as the front comes through.

This front has a healthy line of showers along and just behind it…

The Canadian continues to show a few flakes flying behind this…

Temps with this front come way down again and you can see that on this animation from 7pm Wednesday through 7pm Thursday…

This sets the stage for a cold Friday with highs ranging from the upper 30s to middle 40s. This animation takes us from 7pm Thursday through 7pm Friday…

Saturday looks like a normal November day around here, but Sunday is trending soggy ahead of a the first system moving in. The one behind it is what we need to keep a close eye on as it will deliver the coldest air of the season for early next week and it’s likely to fire up a big storm in the east. How all this unfolds is still a work in progress and it will take the models a bit to sort it out.

The EURO isn’t quite as amped up as the last run, but it’s still very cold…

The GFS continues to be progressive and this is the bias I keep trying to point out to anyone who will listen…

Temps with this system are middle of winter cold and wind chills could wind up close to 10 degrees by Tuesday morning.

The pattern after this will likely feature another storm system rolling out of the southwest later Thanksgiving week. I talk a lot about the GFS bias of being too progressive, but the EURO has a bias of being too slow in ejecting energy out of the southwestern part of the country. You can see how it’s holding that energy back in Texas…

You can see how this develops a big storm system to our southwest…

In looking down the road, we find the GFS Ensembles coming around to the colder look for the final days of November into the start of December…

Make it a great rest of the day and take care.