Good Friday everyone and welcome to the frozen tundra of Kentucky. Our fast moving winter storm worked out about as well as it could have with the forecast we had out and I am a happy camper because of it.
Snow totals ranged from an inch or two across far southern Kentucky to 6″ in the far north. We are now dealing with the coldest air of the season and looking ahead to a possible MAJOR storm early next week. To be honest… I am thisclose to upgrading to a Winter Storm Threat!!
Busy enough for ya? If not… hang on tight because I think the next few weeks are going to be wild with plenty of snow.
Today… it’s all about the cold as the arctic air has worked into our part of the world. Temps to start the day will drop into the single digits for parts of the north and west with other areas saying in the 10-15 degree range. Temps today won’t move very much at all as many areas stay in the teens. Gusty winds will make it feel around 0 or below at times.
Track the cold here…
Current Temps
Wind Chill
Any area that has clear skies later tonight will see temps plummet toward 0 or even below. Those with clouds will see high single digits. Either way… a bitterly cold night is on tap.
A weak disturbance will cross the Ohio Valley this weekend and bring the possibility of some flurries or a little light snow. Temps stay cold with highs in the 20s.
Let’s jump into next week and what can become a big deal around here. For those who have been reading between the lines of my blogs the past several days… you have noticed I have been talking up early next week. Even in the midst of forecasting this recent storm… I wanted to give you guys a heads up on the possibilities I was seeing. And now… wow! The models are going ballistic in developing a MAJOR winter storm from late Monday through Wednesday. You can bet you will be hearing a ton of weather people now begin playing this up for early next week… both locally and nationally.
Before we go any further with this… I want to be clear I am only breaking down what the computer forecast models are showing and offering my thoughts on them and the pattern. I am not giving you a forecast… just some info and thoughts on the models. ![]()
Now that we have that out of the way… wow. Almost every single forecast model is going toward a mid 1990’s winter storm early next week. The European and Canadian Models are leading the way in showing a similar evolution and end result around here… a ton of snow. As a matter of fact (and this is the model talking)… the new run of the European model shows more than a foot of snow for central and eastern Kentucky from Monday through Wednesday.
Take a look at the setup on this run…
The Canadian Model seems to agree with this…
What about the GFS? Well… the GFS is also showing a major storm… just a bit to our east. If one corrects the eastward bias of the model… you would ge a solution similar to what the above models show. Here is the GFS on face value…
Once again… that is what the computer models are telling us at the moment and not a forecast I am making. The pattern is favorable for a major storm to crank up early next week. It is too early to tell what, if any, impact it will have on our weather. I will have more updates on this potential later today so check back.
Have a great Friday and take care.
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All I can say is WOW. A foot of snow would be amazing. But as Chris said let’s wait a couple days and see what it shows then….. I’m jumping on the train. Another full 3 or 4. Days of tracking another “potential”major snowstorm…
yeah that euro run clocked eastern kentucky, nogaps is similar and ukmet a hair west of that. if the 12z runs come in similar on friday given the potential for hvy qpf with a favorable it may time for an upgrade.
I read the Lou NWS discussion for this morning, and I was not impressed. I go to accuweather, and I see a QPF, on the discussion board, for next week of .67″ for SDF, and I come here, and I am thinking; okay what is up?
Less than half an inch of snow and in the mid 20s at my house the weather here didn’t listen to Chris
So is the “OFFICIAL” total for Lex really going to be 2.7 inches? That’s incorrect if that’s the case. Definitely more than 2.7 inches in Lex from this storm. I’d say more around 3.7 to 4.
Thanks Chris. Possible threat mode right after were done with one winter storm?! WOW!!! I don’t think I have seen something like since the late 1970’s. One storm right after the other. Another exciting time tracking this next one.
This may not be one of our snowiest winters ever but it surely has been beautiful thus far. Thank you Chris for helping us to be prepared and able to enjoy the snowy show.
Wow, that would be so sweet. A big storm coming in on the heels of the Packers making it to the Superbowl ๐ Lexington now sits at 21″ for the season, this could easily put Lex over 30″ with another storm possibly coming in late next week as well. Could we make it to 40″?
We have about 2 on the ground here at my house. About what Chris said. Looks likemore fun is coming! I remember the stors of the 90s and the 70s. so, if it comes true and is anything close tothat….look out! Stay safeand warm out there today, all. Thanks, Chris. Looking forward to your thoughts on the next one.
I was flipping through channels this morning and one of the meteorologists that is always downplaying the snows even mentioned the possibility of a major snow next week.
I need to sit down…..
I think I am gonna pass out….
(the above is for all you MODERN FAMILY fans out there)
Seriously though, a foot of snow would just be awesome…I also am hearing of storm potentials late next week, like FRI-SAT. Any thoughts???
Lexington has gone over 20 inches of snow for the 2nd consecutive winter season. That is the first time that has happened since 1977-1978 & 1978-1979.
Last time 30 inches or more–1995-1996
Last time 40 inches or more–1977-1978
Would love to see us continue the climb on our seasonal snowfall totals!
I agree Mark. I had about 3.8 at my house, in north Lexington. I know Fayette County is often the dividing line, but based on reports from Madison Co and others, I’m skeptical of the 2.7 number.
Official total was 3.3
Now up to 21.9 on the season!
Pumped as always….we ended up with about 3 inches in Staffordsville. Looking forward to many stormy updates to come ๐
My windshield cracked 2/3rds of the way across this morning. That’s all I got from this storm. I hope it BOMBS us next week. I hope it snows so hard that the salt trucks can’t keep up. I’ll stop right there before I end up on the soapbox. ๐
NWS keeps bumping up the chances for snow early next week. Was at 10% mon night with a 20% chance Tues. Now it’s 30% across the board for Mon, Mon night, and Tues.
06z gfs spitting out close to 3/4″ liquid precip. for next storm over central/eastern ky…!!!…:)
here in barbourville, maybe 1″ of snow, then some melted before the cold moved in..around 1/2″ or so on the ground, but the roads are slick from moisture freeze up with at temp. at 21*….
Ouch! I’m beginning to think I would like a warm up and a rumble of thunder.
LOL…me too !!!!…im ready for the smack down, big daddy, smowmaggeddon,snowstorm of the century…
…………….
and before it gets started…NO we dont want wrecks, NO we dont want death, NO we dont want papaws dentures freezing overnight while soaking in !!!!…
………….
WE JUST WANT A GOOD FOOT OF SNOW…LOL..THERE WXMAN…HOW’S THAT FOR SOAPBOX THIS MORNING YOU DIDNT HAVE TO I DID IT FOR YOU…B)
YOU did it once again my friend….You were RIGHT on!!! Our NWS channel here as of last night while it was SNOWING HARD still had Frankfort with less than one inch expected by Friday morning. HA HA !! I had friends say it is not going to SNOW and then I tell them….”If Chris forcasted it…it will come” and it did.
Thanks for all the wonderful updates…and for making the weather fun to follow!!
Until the next winter storm…..which looks closer than later!
LOL..well i soapboxed for ya…but it went into moderation. and im not going thru all that again…
Anderson county sucks at salting anyways. I don’t think I’ll have to worry about it snowing so hard they can’t keep up. ๐
And I really hope it bombs us!!!!
Hey, maybe this next storm will bring us thunder snow. ๐
I guess I’m a bit further south than you we never even got close to half an inch of snow just enough to cover the ground and another thing the way Knox County was salting last night you would think they expected a foot of snow no less than 5 salt trucks all salting the same lane in less than half mile on 25E
Anyone have a website that shows qpf output for ECMWF?
It’s still snowing a little here at East Point, Rt 1750…just flurries.
Maybe a little over 2 inches of snow all together.
Thanks for the updates, CB. I don’t think I’m ready for next week.
http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=namer&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0&ge=800×600&mo=ecmwf&le=500&va=avort&in=2&pl=cf&ft=h120&cu=latest&overlay=yes&mo=ecmwf&le=500&va=hght&in=60&pl=ln&ft=h120&cu=latest
Needs to nudge north just a little bit.
Although I live in Western Kentucky, I read your weather information daily. And I appreciate when you mention Western Kentucky. Because you are awesome! I know you said Central and Eastern KY could get lots of snow from the storm next week? Thanks!
I feel your pain… wrote an extensive post once… didn’t care to do that again! lol
Any thoughts on what Western Kentucky may get from next week’s storm?
Hyper-time !!
Hyper-time !!
Hyper-time is hear
you better get your bread and milk
cause Snowmaggeddon is near..
OH Hyper-time !!
Hyper-time !!
Hyper time is hear
you better run to Kroger now
before all the shelves are Clear !!!
http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=namer&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0&ge=800×600&mo=ecmwf&le=500&va=avort&in=2&pl=cf&ft=h120&cu=latest&overlay=yes&mo=ecmwf&le=500&va=hght&in=60&pl=ln&ft=h120&cu=latest
It needs to come north just a little bit
There you go friend…by the way, we ended up with 4″ on the nose at my house. My 6″ predition didn’t happen! Oh well…can’t win them all. Hoping all these models align for a huge snowfall next week!
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ecmwf.html
Wel crap…that’s not it. Sorry. I had it and now i lost it lol…let me know if u find it haha
I went to Krogers last night about 9 pm. Almost had the strore to myself. It was great.
Looks like Woodford County got about 3 inches. Next week looks about as promising as it has for a while. WOnder when the wafflemaker will chime in with his predictions.
well the Nam at 84hrs..TRYS to sniff out the storm, but doesnt have much with it here…
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/12/images/nam_pcp_084m.gif
Its ok. Thanks anyway though ๐
Most models have this thing exploding late Tuesday into Wednesday.
I love it!!!!!! Do you have a copyright issued on that? ๐
LEX got 3.3…and the snow depth was 3 at 7AM this morning. There was a WIDE range of snow depths from the county this morning. The official depth is taken at the airport at a single point (like every other first order weather station). It is not an areal average.
Is that why Anderson County never goes to school? lol
I am so excited about this potential of a big storm! I think threat mode is coming soon! ๐
I’d think so. We only have like 4 salt trucks.
Well…. NWS Louisville thinks it will rain… hmmmmm
Brian Goode over at wave 3 is on board now, he just said this on Facebook.
I still feel the next storm early next week is going to be a major winter storm. I don’t think the models have fully caught on yet to what the pattern is about to show. Stay tuned…
Hmmmmm. ๐
Brian is a good friend of mine, but I’m going to have to disagree on this one. I feel that we are going to be ever so close to a big one, but it’s not going to happen. The east coast is going to get LASHED again… but here, no dice.
How long do you think we can hold on to snow with the temperatures so cold around here? Who does it look like the next storm will zero in on? Hoping East Ky ๐
Well they are coming Tuesday to fix my windshield. If Chris is right, this will be right in the middle of another snowstorm! Haha.. I hope it snows axle-high to a ferris wheel and the salt trucks all stay parked. Leave the snow unalderterated and let us enjoy it. Quit polluting the ground water and wasting tax money and diesel fuel. Leave the snow alone!
Accuweather already calling for up to 3 inches of new snow for Sunday night in the lexington area. They also are hinting at a major snow event possibility of the entire state of KY for early next week. Looks bad or good depending on your point of view. My view is GOOD.
the low of -45.9 F at International Falls, Minnesota is the 5th lowest temperature ever recorded there, and the coldest so late in the season.
WOW!
Accuweather is calling for 1 to 3 inches new snow for lexington area Sunday night, they also hint at the upcoming chances of a major snowstorm hitting the area early next week. It really smells of a major event coming our way.
I’m just gonna see where the models go with this one until Sunday, then go from there.
UH-OH !!! some are saying the pattern we’ll be in for the next storm corrilates with the pattern we were in during THE MARCH 1993 SUPERSTORM…B)
GIMMEE A “H”
GIMMEE A “Y”
GIMMEE A “P”
GIMMEE A “E”
>>>> HYPE, HYPE, HYPE !! <<<< LOL…GOTTA HAVE SOME FUN !!
Accuweather is calling for 1 to 3 inches new snow for lexington area Sunday night, they also hint at the upcoming chances of a major snowstorm hitting the area early next week. It really smells of a major event coming our way.
well 12z gfs didnt show much love either, its back down to the flatter wave,…lol…and the YO-YO process begins…
Another honorary membership to the dark side courtesy of Darth Bubba. Good Job wxman. ๐
I went to Krogers last night about 9 pm. Almost had the strore to myself. It was great.
Looks like Woodford County got about 3 inches. Next week looks about as promising as it has for a while. Wonder when the wafflemaker will chime in with his predictions.
Moderation. Probably for the better.
school buses and snow dont mix…
http://www.wave3.com/video
NWS never jumps on anything after 1 run if the 12z model runs are the similar then there will be more in the discussion.
the models are why this blog is here…going back and forth creates excitment..whats going to happen on the next one..snow …no snow…rain..no to warm..to far south..no to north…no wait..yes threat..well 2-4???? no.yes.no yes..drama at its best….but im a sucker for this drama..come on big snow
How are the latest models looking?
Accuweather is calling for 1 to 3 inches new snow for lexington area Sunday night, they also hint at the upcoming chances of a major snowstorm hitting the area early next week. It really smells of a major event coming our way.
also should point out they use a snow board not grass. flat surfaces are best for snow measurement. snow depth is rounded to the nearest 1/2 inch. snow bursts can also be a factor in different totals as well.
NWS in Wilmington is being WAY cautious about next week’s storm chances. They’ve not been very reliable on the past few events (except for this last one, which everyone seemed to get right for once).
Could this be the one that destroy’s the proverbial Death Star (IE Snow Dome) as far as big snow’s in KY go? Help us Obi-Wan Bailey, you’re our only hope ๐
Seems to me the canadian model has had a very good track record so far this winter.
Let’s hope it stays locked an this storm and it pans out.
http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=namer&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0&ge=800×600&mo=ecmwf&le=500&va=avort&in=2&pl=cf&ft=h120&cu=latest&overlay=yes&mo=ecmwf&le=500&va=hght&in=60&pl=ln&ft=h120&cu=latest
Lets see when the next run occurs if it can come north a little bit more.
Darth Bubba must admit that the Rebel Kentucky Snow Lover forces have a strong shot next week of seriously damaging the Imperial Alliance, but Darth will not go down without a fight! Noooooooo!
Stay away from the Dark Side! ๐
Check this out guys…Idk if this is a good thing being its crackuweather. None the less, their map looks to attack Kentucky head on!
http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/story/44706/watching-for-a-major-eastern-s.asp
TOM ACKERMAN said a weak cliper is all, nothing to see here next week.
I agree as far as a BUBBA BUSTER, 2-3 inches sure but OLD SCHOOL no.
Today’s trends are far less impressive than yesterday. The next big step is the new euro run which will be out soon.
This event has a shot of happening 50/50, IMO. I would say more so for the east of the state, but you never know.
As a result, for TA to say anything certain at this time seems silly.
Ackerman would call 2 feet of snow a dusting. He would fit in well at the Weather Channel.
The Dark Side is throwing in a free magazine subscriptions ATM ๐
Your choice:
1. Field & Stream
2. Teen Beat
3. Mad Magazine
Just keep in mind membership dues are a doozy with the Dark Side ๐
LOL!!!!!
where’s R2-D2 when you need him !!
You probably meant the nearest 1/10th of an inch. . .don’t worry, we knew what you meant. Thanks for your input on the blog
CB seems to be thinking opposite. What models suggest this?
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