Good afternoon gang. A Winter Storm Warning is out for much of central and northern Kentucky with the rest of the state under a Winter Weather Advisory for Thursday into Thursday night. Here is a look at the latest map…
I wish Jackson would have included their northern counties in the warning… but what’s a weather dude to do? 
My thoughts on all this have not changed at all and I feel things are in good shape with the current call for snowfall we have out…
I will check the latest data and have a Last Call For Snowfall map out late this evening or tonight.
Some “always looking ahead” notes…
– The arctic air for Friday is impressive as many areas stay in the teens with a wind chill near 0. Lows Friday night can make a run at 0 IF we have some clearing. If not… then its 8-12.
– Some light snow and flurries will be with us on and off this weekend.
– Lots of potential for the Monday- Wednesday period as a big winter storm will try to crank up. That looks interesting and has had my attention for a few days.
Before we look too far ahead… we do have some light snow and flurries out there right now…
More updates as needed so be sure to check back. Take care.
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I’ve noticed something, Mr. Bailey…
You always include Eastern and Southeastern Kentucky in your forecast
(which we appreciate very much)
But most of the other places tend not to mention our areas…
Thanks for all the updates.
First?
Just wanted to report some snow just around 5:15pm around Bardstown Rd @ Watterson Expressway.
Northern Arkansas under a WSW… lol..
Looking at the map, is that the storm starting to come into Illinois. Looks like it will be here sometime tonight.
Thanks for all u do!!!!
Here in Nicholasville I have a dusting. What is that from cause I see nothing on the radar. Grass, roofs and cars have a light dusting.
The snow is looking to be coming in here a little earlier than projected. I guess time will tell.
Flurries still falling in Louisville at the moment.
We had some kind of something falling here in Lexington around 4:30 or 5pm. I was letting the dog outside and it appeared to be like ice pellets. I do think though that the nws does need to extend the winter storm warning into our eastern counties. Just looks kinda funny on the map. Thanks Chris for all you do for us, it is greatly appreciated.
The storm is already viewable on radar and thats suprising since its not expected until tomorrow so can someone tell me if we are still on the same time frame or has it been moved up a bit? If it is here earlier will this give us more or less snow?
It is a two batch storm 1 inch at the most from the first batch
Atmosphere being to dry doesn’t look to be much of a fact. Check out live temps and dewpoint data here:
http://www.kymesonet.org/
Question:
Why a WSW for Lexington if we are only expecting up to four inches of snow? Isn’t that WWA criteria?
I came thru the northern part of mercer county about 45 min ago and it was really snowing. Drove 5 miles down the road and nothing. Husband said south side of Jessamine county roads were covered….
I wondered the same thing….But i like it.
I could be totally wrong here, so take this one with a grain of salt… but I was always under the impression that it had to do with more criteria that just amount of snow. Like other factors such as, wind speed, visibility, amount of precip. per hour expected, etc…
For example, if they predict it’s going to snow several inches over the course of a few hours, then that would be more dangerous and meet the criteria for a warning better than expecting 6 inches over the course of a couple days. Higher total, but likely less dangerous for traveling, etc…
Does that make sense?
Can someone tell me why it appears the snow in nebraska is oving southeast but the snow in missouri looks to be heading northeast? is the center of low pressure somewhere near there? you would think we would need snow in the boothill of MO to make its way thru central ky, this appears to go north?
Don’t understand but Chris has Richmond in a WWW and the snow map only has us in the 2-4 range. Am i missing something or am i reading it wrong? Someone that knows what this means please help me.
Know I may be jumping the gun here, but does anyone see more potential to put more snow on the ground early next week than tomorrow?
Nice little snow in N Madison right now! Keep it comin!
Versailles just got a little shot of snow that put a layer of snow on the grassy areas only. Just a mist coming down now.
I love ya CB but you bumped my poor little bullitt county right out of the 3-6 range…tisk tisk…guess I will have to settle with 2-4…and yes i would like some cheese with my whine!!!!!
Disappointed in CBs latest snowfall map because it is a downgrade for Fayette Co. compared to earlier today and I always trust CBs maps he usually nails it for us here in Lexington. Oh well, it certainly looks impressive on radar maybe we’ll at least get to 4″ which is nothing to sneeze at no matter how badly many of us snow gluttons want more. It will be pretty again within 24 hours so if I can’t be golfing…let it snow!
Icing in Masterson Station (Lexington) currently.
What is that symbol over Columbus, OH on every one of Chris’s snowfall maps?
actually the NWS has Richmond in a WWW not Chris 😉
Light freezing driz&Snow here in Frankfort. Roads are getting wet, could freeze up later??
TG had a huge swatch of 3-5″ over much of the state at 6pm with a 4-6″ patch over the extreme northern counties. Maybe Chris will bump his totals up too
a lake?
4 inches in 12 hours or less is Winter Storm Warning criteria.
Light snow has been increasing here on the south side of Lexington.I think we may have a earlier start to accumulating snow overnight tonight. Temp at 7:30 PM is 31, humidity is 87%, dew point is 28. I believe we will be closer to 4-6 inches here in Lexington. Thank you Chris for all the hard work, you are the best!
tornado i was just coming here to ask someone if they knew what the dew point was.
there is a little juice in the air. my back deck looks like someone sprinkled sugar all over it. just a light coating.
lets get this party started!
Dewpoint is 28, temp is 31, humidity is 87% at my place in Lexington.
Got a quarter inch of snow in the past hour. Don’t think anyone mentioned snow tonight?
Light snow is falling in Lexington. I expect we will be on the high end of total accumulations.
quickly!
OK, I thought that was Chris’ Advisory Map.
I see it…I’ll bet it something secret or conspiratorial like in the DaVinci Code..but for meteorologists 🙂
With the snow already falling around Lex and Lou, without showing up on the radar, do you guys think this storm will pack more of a punch than what everyone is thinking? Just a thought…
New NAM says 2-3″ for southern KY. I still expect 4″ here.
Often wondered the same thing. I think it means that Columbus is a center for paranormal meteorological judicial activity.
Just cheked Mesonet and it said for Frankfort the humidity is 101 and dewpoint and temp at 32. I live out in the county and there was very light rain/sleet coming down about an hour ago.
David…Eyewall…the Truth is out there..
I couldn’t agree more! Montgomery County is on the fringes of the Jackson Weather Service area and JWS is always the last one to the dance. Thank God for Chris and the blog so we really know what’s going on!
Thanks for responding and will Johnson County get any in the 1st batch?
I thought this was interesting. It is from the NWS Louisville homepage:
19 January 1994 → Louisville’s coldest temperature on record: -22 degrees. Also, Kentucky’s coldest temperature ever recorded occurred at Shelbyville: -37 degrees.
where you been hiding??we havent seen you post in along time…
chatting weather over at:http://ekywx.com/kychat.htm
I was wondering the same…..anyone have info for us…..Chris said specifically that it was a fast moving hit and only one round but earlier on here someone said an inch could come tonight……is this right???
wondering the same…..will there be a round before the heavy round moves in or is this on scedule?
Ah yes…I remember that day well. It was -20 in Lexington and I walked to class at UK just so I could experience what extreme cold like that felt like. Don’t think I would do that again now.
What time should this event start in my neck of the woods? I need to know if I should plan for early school release. Thanks!
Does anyone else ever have trouble getting this site to load?
Here in Louisville we have had moisture falling from the sky off & on all day. I do not think it would take much time for the atmosphere to be prime for activity to fall from the heavens.
That’s one of the reasons I appreciate CB’s forecasting. JWS and Accuweather never get it quite right, and The Weather Channel doesn’t believe that anyone live in Kentucky east of Louisville! Chris is the best at forecasting the weather for our area.
YES, YES, and another YES…
This is something I have noticed in the past month…Even during off peak times, I have to reload several times to get this site to come up…..Even if it’s 4 am and everyone is asleep.
I received my info from the wave 3 blog. I do not know where Johnson County is located. If you tell me a city in your county I or another fellow bloggers can give you a more timely answer to your question.
Would not have thunk it, but seems the system is traveling more due east than I expected. This could mean a lot of folks get the upper end of CB’s totals, rather than the lower.
For now at least, I am surprised.
Bailey, i got this feeling about the next week. Idk if its this storm but we going to get a good one
I agree I am so thankful for Chris and the blog and the people.Tonight we have been out very foggy esp when we crossed into Wv glad to be home.Chris you are moving that line the wrong way lol J/k
Chris I believe we are having snizzle.
Yes. Over the last week or so, I’ve had to try to load the page two or three times, each time I visit the main page or a comments page. Thought it was just my computer, but it does it on my phone as well.
new nam run much drier kuddos to the ecmwf model which has been this dry all along. 1-3 for most of the winter storm warning region with 1 to perhaps 2 inches along the ky-tn line. CVG could still get 3 or 4 inches.
Dark Bubba having a Human Moment? I don’t think you’ve done that in 3+years.
LAA LAAA LAAA, LAAA I’m not listening to you……..
Chris been to Wv we are home now but ran into Snizzle.Snizzle at Pikeville.
Even though I trust what you say Mitch.
The NAM Model Is Incorrect And The New GFS When It Comes In Will Show This!!
WHAT!!!WHY IS THIS?
wow one model agrees with ecmwf model. Your going to be wrong again mitchy boy
Happening to me also no matter what computer I use. Trust me I use many computers and check the blog often. Can be annoying but still worth it.
How does this happen when the air in place is already pretty saturated? Does it get bullied out?
IDK, it’s just one run and I’m by far no expert, but CB just tweeted about it and laughed at the end… so seems like he doesn’t put any stock into that run…
The county seat is Paintsville. It’s the county north of Floyd;
both in Eastern Kentucky.
Dang Mitch. You aren’t rolo incognito are you? JK..:)
Goooddh. Bursted pipes, flooded basement,frozen basement, and a two year old and a one year old in the house. Absolutely awful.
My understanding is that the NAM is now predicting the 2nd low pressure system to be weaker. QPF is the issue and a weaker low pulls in less moisture I believe.
Brian Goode of Wave mentioned that if this run were to verify then forecasts would have to be lowered, but he cautions against putting too much stock in one model run. So in summary, I wouldn’t bet that the system is a bust, but I wouldn’t totally disregard this run either.
Chris says:The new run of the NAM model is not impressed with the snow tomorrow. Looks like it has some issues and has no other model support… yet ha 33 minutes
Yes
Same Here…
Snizzle? Snow plus drizzle?
Screw this winter season in Louisville. I an tired of the near misses. I ready to move onto Spring. Totally frustrated.
Here we have a model that prognosticating a moderate snow event for the state and within 12 hours of the event it decides it does not want to cooperate. I WANT SPRING.
13 years to be exact
We buried my father-in-law that day. It was a military burial and the honor guards hands were shaking so bad when they were folding the flag. They felt so bad and kept apologizing afterward but we understood. It was so cold and to top it off my father-in-law hated the cold.
The 10:15 radar image from accuweather sure looks interesting…
Is that Snow and Drizzle?
Badly drawn Buckeye leaf is what I always thought. I can tell you this tho, it’s no lake!
It seems as if the 1st wave is going to have a little bit of bite in it. Looking like it could even give Nelson Co. a little taste of snow tonight.
That it does, that it does!! 🙂
When will the next GFS come out?…or any modle for that matter. I need something to contradict the nasty NAM.
What does it say?
Missouri radar shows the heavy banded snow moving east from KC to St. Louis. Most of KY will need that to shift further south at some point to get those higher end totals! Cinn area as expected will do the best out of this one. Frankfort another 1to2, more of the same 🙁
I know. I missed the good stuff back then.
Bill I have heard Chris use it and to the best of my knowledge take it with a grain of salt I think its not snow or Drizzle its kind of in the middle someone can jump in and correct me.
Chris you are moving that line the wrong way I am barely in the 2-4 range now lol. Pikeville is always the fence on the fence.
It’s called Snizzle…
It’s call Snizzle…..
Well, I can onlyl hope that the new NAM is wrong….we are already at the low end of the totem pole for this one…please, Mitch, don’t totally spoil it for us. 😉
Means that it will most likely start snowing soon! TWC says it is now snowing in Owensboro. 🙂 bring it on!!!
The snow is looking worse for tomorrow. The models to me no longer matter at this time. It’s time to start looking at the radar. And if you want snow you need to see rapid development in Oklahoma, Northwest Arkansas, and Southwest Missouri if we want anything. It doesn’t look good folks.
My assumption is the moisture pulls in as well, but models do not appear to be agreeing now. As CB noted, the NAM is going in the wrong direction with totals. If we trusted the NAM with this event earlier on and with less data, seems hypcritcal from us to refute it later on with MORE data now.
Not the proposed result we want to see. THIS is why I do not have many human moments.
Bubba
Should I crank up the snow thrower over here on 627 near the truck stop?
Yes…been that way for a few weeks now. I think Chris is getting quite popular. 🙂
It Looks Like It Is Going East To North East, But Actually It Is Going Slowly South East So Don’t Give Up It Is Coming Just Give It Time.
Folks the main precip shield hasn’t even formed yet. This is a 2 wave system. The first wave is what is showing up right now that won’t likely amount to much. The second wave will strengthen the snow shield tomorrow and bring the colder air with it….at least that’s what TG Shuck just said on Fox 56 haha. He didn’t mention a thing about models trending toward a drier solution.
Also an interesting note, TG has this system diving in from the northwest to southeast whereas it seems CB has snow moving northeast. I honestly don’t know what to believe right now!
Yeah, Todd, I noticed that too on the earlier radar(s)..looks like the whole system is moving almost due-East, so unless the southern part starts to fill in overnight, I’m not too crazy about this whole “event”. Could fool us tho, too! 🙂
You are from the Dark Side. Away! Look at the GFS…Luke, it is your Father.
This could be a big snow for us. Lightning has been seen in Bracken Co. around 9:00 p.m. and both thunder and lightning in Pendleton & Harrison Co.
Storm is must be gearing up for us.
Chris says the GFS stays solid with the original snow forecast!!
Well Tony on WSAZ backed Chris’s snow numbers 100% In East Ky.
That Would Indicate Tremendous Isotopic Lift In The Atmosphere That Could Bring Some Incredible Snows If This Is True!
He also said For East Ky and Wv the main snow would not get in for our area till tommorow night as Chris said.
i am starting to twitch! i need a “new update” fix!
Maybe someone who has been here a while can answer this…
During my drive home tonight, I noticed that the interstate, 264, wasn’t treated with brine solution like they usually do. Is that because of yesterday’s rain? And if they haven’t treated the roads, the morning rush will be bad…
That is VERY funny Kate! 🙂
You guys want a fix til CB updates? Check this new 00z GFS map out!!!
http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=LVX
Freezing mist here in central Garrard. Untreated side roads have some very slick patches on them with this thin coating of ice. Be careful folks!
its snowing here in covington. temp at 27 on my thermometer here. 6-8 on latest gfs….this winter the gfs has been by far the close range model of choice which is been very unreliable in past recent winters.
Louisville Metro seemed to get a late start on brining today. AT 5 PM, only about 1/3 of downtown was done and nothing on Bardstown Rd. By 8:30 PM, much more was completed.
Just got on and came to the very last post and was going to read back up from there.
NO NEED TO NOW as this looks good enough. I hope it holds true and or the white and blues move a little futher south.
I like that map. 5 inches for Lexington and within a few miles of 6 inches. That would be excellent!
Follow the JET STREAM…all the upper level winds that drive the storms…Down from the norhtwest up to the north east…KY will be the axis of the two…
Of course I guess it’s just a few miles to 4 inches too…heh heh
32 in louisville at 11 said 2 inches or less and the track has shifter totals north and that this is basically a non winter threat
Uh oh. AT 12:54 am, radar clearly shows early track of storm is back to lifting northeastward.
Wave3 still saying 3-5 on scroll – think WLKY jumped gun on NAM model. Hope it doesn’t bite them later by making everyone relax. I’m still feeling like 4-6 in the ‘Ville. Just my gut.
I thought that too at first glance, but if you focus on that heavier band it is moving west to east. Looks like the Bluegrass may get in on some of the first wave. Chris may need to bump up the totals 🙂
Been hiding right here. lol.. just don’t post too often anymore.
The GFS is showing no snow love for the region next week. 🙁 Hoping that will change
Looks like the NWS is downplaying my area (whitley co). Now down to 80% snow tonight with less than an inch accumulation.