Good Wednesday afternoon everyone. It is all eyes on a fast moving winter storm that will sweep across the state Thursday into Thursday night. This will be a hit and run snow maker for the entire region with higher totals in the north and lower totals across the south.
Let’s get a little deeper into the storm ahead…
– As we have said from day one… this would be a moderate event with a swath of 4″ or a bit more of snow setting up across the state.
– Light snow will break out across parts of western and northern Kentucky late tonight into early Thursday. This can impact the morning commute in the Louisville and Cincy/Northern Ky metro areas.
– The snow will rapidly increase from west to east Thursday reaching the eastern part of the state by early evening.
– The steady snows look to last for about a 6-10 hour period for any one location.
– Most areas will see a 2 hour period of light snow to start. As the arctic front slams southward through the area… we will see a 2-4 hour window of moderate snow with some embedded heavy bursts. That will be followed by another 2-4 hour period of lighter snows that will quickly taper off.
– It is right along and just behind the arctic front that the bulk of the snow will fall. There is a good amount of forcing along this boundary and that tells me some heavier bursts will be likely. Winds will gust up as well and visibilities will drop big time. Roads will quickly become snow covered as the arctic front snows slam through.
– This same arctic front will help ensure this will be a moderate event as it will sweep the snows to our east by Friday morning. Here is the latest snow map…
Here is a look at snow numbers I expect for some select cities…
Covington: 6″
Louisville: 4.5″
Maysville: 4.5″
Frankfort: 4″
Lexington: 3.5″
Ashland: 3.5″
Morehead: 3.5″
Elizabethtown: 3″
Richmond: 3″
Paducah: 3″
Pikeville: 2″
Bowling Green: 2″
Somerset: 2″
The other aspect of this storm will be the blast of arctic air moving in for Friday. Temps will drop into the teens by Friday morning and likely stay there for most of the day. Winds will be gusty and will take our wind chills down to around 0. If we clear the skies out Friday night… actual thermometers can flirt with 0.
We are always looking ahead here on the blog… and things continue to look very active. We have a light snow and flurry maker this weekend that will be followed by, what should become, a big storm early next week. I will be shocked if we get through this winter without a major snowstorm around here. ![]()
More updates to come later today so check back. Have a great afternoon and take care.
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First?
Thanks for the update and always looking ahead for new weather developments. I had asked earlier and wonder if anyone on here has a recipe for snow cream?
FIRST!
i guess we’ll take what we get from this one. Sure looks like chris is eyeing something nice for next week. Anyone getting a solid preview of what’s to come?
I like snow
if i am first, i need to get a life. i am on lunch break and hoping i am first on the best weather blog in the tri-state. thanks chris for all you do for the tri-state from wayne,wva.
More would be better….
was i first? we shall see. i need to get a life from wayne,wva.
YES! finally more than 2 inches in Frankfort! Get the sleds out kiddos. I can’t wait to hear about next weeks storm! CB is a big tease with the smiley winking dude!
Now THIS map makes sense and better fits both the system and north- north west slant.
Bad news is Darth Bubba was correct. Another drive-by snow for most of us.
Here is a short poem:
Bring on spring! ๐
by the way, i’m not rushing past the current storm. Should make for some good play time in my area, the kids will love it. I just keep hoping for the monster storm, and CB has taken away any hope I have for this system being an over achiever. Which several of your comments had already prepared me for. So I can’t be to disappointed.
Thanks Chris!
But ugh, 3 ” ??
I’m gonna listen to my old timer neighbor and hope for the 5-8 inches he says we will get. ๐ (cause I want more SNOW!) LOL.
this is the 3rd attempt at seeing if my comment made it first or not. i guess i need to get back to work and get on with my life instead of neeing a life. lol!!!
I hope you’re right, CB! !3 years is a LOOOONG time to wait! ๐
Dana, someone gave me Paula Deen’s snow cream recipe & said it was very good. You use 8 cups of snow, one 14 oz can of sweetened condensed milk & 1 tsp vanilla. Mix together & serve.
1st? (Had to try that just once) Chris, you are awesome. I have followed the blog for quite some time & have to say you are the most accurate met anywhere. LOVE it!!!
Sorry – Dara.
It also confirms the CB post and Tweet gap law. Long gaps equal no change or a downgrade. Not once has these gaps meant resulted in an upgrade for most of the state. Just the northern elite.
Class snowfare!
Wow its really dark and dreary here in E-Town…. pretty ominous looking sky. If I didnt know better, I’d say something was about to happen from the way it looks.
where’s them darn jumper cables at???…B)
So if a feller (such as me) were to leave Paintsville around 7:30am tomorrow for a meeting in Frankfort starting at 10am and ending at 3pm, what are the chances I will be sliding home instead of driving?
I like sliding… especially boardsliding! ๐
LOL…next monday’s storm already getting supressed to dixie…de-ja-vu all over again…TWC jumping all over it atm. saying could be another snowstorm in atlanta on monday…:(
Should be fine.. I doubt any of it will be laying on the roads tomorrow afternoon, especially in eastern Ky. where the temps will be warmer.
MikeM and other woodford countians. It looked like the line moved north of us! I still think we’ll get 3″. That’s ok by me!!
Tn…is beating ky.. on advisories…lol..WWA all the way to central tn. now, including most of the counties in the NASHVILLE NWS area…
spoke too soon…winter storm warnings and adv…now for central ky….including lexington
Winter Storm WARNING now in effect for Louisville, Frankfort, Elizabethtown, Lexington, Lawrenceburg, etc. SWEET!
Here is a good free curriculum to increase our meteorology knowledge.
http://www.meted.ucar.edu/index.htm
HELLO JACKSON !!! STICKIN OUT LIKE A SORE THUMB THERE BOYS…LOL…
Another snow sandwich. For most of KY, it’s what’s for dinner.
So our wall of snow is Fort Knox level for the north and Japanese shouji walls for the rest of us ๐
What about us folks in Richmond? Are we ALWAYS going to be the gate keepers of the fence? Shut UP Darth! Darn voice in my head again, sorry.
WINTER STORM WARNING offically issued for Lou. metro area. They’re saying 3-5″ with Oldham/Henry co. 4-6″. Calling for heavy bursts of snow in afternoon and early evening. I still think we can get 6″+ out of this storm with forcing setting up the banding!
For what its worth, Madison County is under the Winter Storm Warning…
Warning in Effect now!
Winter Storm Warning for Fayette, KY
from 11 am EST, Thu., Jan. 20, 2011 until 1 am EST, Fri., Jan. 21, 2011
Issued by The National Weather Service
Louisville, KY
2:04 pm EST, Wed., Jan. 19, 2011
… WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM EST /10 AM CST/ THURSDAY TO 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/ FRIDAY…
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW… WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM EST /10 AM CST/ THURSDAY TO 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/ FRIDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.
* TIMING: LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL KENTUCKY BY MID MORNING THURSDAY AND INTO THE BLUEGRASS BY LATE AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL INTENSIFY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING THURSDAY NIGHT.
* MAIN IMPACT: SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE ON ROADWAYS WITH SUB- FREEZING TEMPERATURES RESULTING IN SNOW COVERED AND SLICK ROADWAYS. THREE TO FIVE INCHES ARE EXPECTED BY THURSDAY NIGHT.
* OTHER IMPACTS: PERIODIC REDUCED VISIBILITY WILL HAMPER DRIVING AS WELL.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…
A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL… KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT… FOOD… AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.
&&
More Information
… ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT…
.AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY PRODUCING ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. SNOW WILL BEGIN ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST- SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE ENTIRE EVENT WILL BE IN THE FOUR TO SIX INCH RANGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN INDIANA COUNTIES AS WELL AS NORTHEAST OF THE LOUISVILLE METRO AREA IN KENTUCKY. FARTHER SOUTH… EXPECT SNOW TOTALS OF THREE TO FIVE INCHES ACROSS THE REST OF NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND TWO TO FOUR INCHES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY.
Sorry, your comments hadn’t shown up on my computer yet! I was late getting posted.
FWIW (for what it’s worth), the Canadian & FMA 12z model runs have the Louisville area still getting 6″+ of snow. I’m not sure why that isn’t being brought up. The Canadian has been consistent throughout, as it had this storm in here days ago. Just a little tidbit. Not saying it’s right. But, time will tell if our northern neighbor had this right or wrong all along.
Jackson’s discussion has a “hazardous weather outlook” issued with 2-4 inches of snow? I’m sure that meets WWA criteria, and possible WSW criteria? Are those guys asleep over there? If you look at the watches and warnings across the state, they look like they are lost…
They said they would in DUE TIME what does that mean??????
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE ON THE THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY PERIOD AS ANOTHER ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL APPEARS IN THE CARDS.
WE WILL BE ISSUING A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR FLEMING COUNTY FROM LATE
THURSDAY MORNING INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING…ANTICIPATING A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA IN DUE
TIME.
DOH…Denied!
Make sure you use yellow snow. It has more acidity to it.
Does Jackson have their own set of criteria, the 1 county they have issued a winter storm watch for stands out like a sore thumb. How would Richmond be in WSW criteria and east or Richmond hazardous weather outlook? Like CB said everyone including the local radio stations who get their info from the NOAA site will be forecasting a hazardous weather outlook, when apparently it should be a WWA or WSW?
Darth Bubba does a double take and three snaps back :O
Even Charleston has issued a WWA for many WV counties. Is the snow expected to take a giant leap from central KY into West Virginia?
Where does it say Madison County and why would we be in a WSW for 3″ or less of snow?
Have the snow totals jumped up? WSWarnings all the way south to Danville and Richmond? What up?
I watched the video posted on their site that details the snow totals, looks like it was made on one of the first versions of powerpoint invented… Maybe they are having trouble with their telegraph and haven’t yet gotten the memo.
Read the warnings:…………..
LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…BEAVER DAM…LEITCHFIELD…
SPRINGFIELD…HARRODSBURG…NICHOLASVILLE…WINCHESTER…
HODGENVILLE…LEBANON…DANVILLE…LANCASTER…RICHMOND
204 PM EST WED JAN 19 2011 /104 PM CST WED JAN 19 2011/
…WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM EST /10 AM CST/
THURSDAY TO 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/ FRIDAY…
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW…WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM EST
/10 AM CST/ THURSDAY TO 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/ FRIDAY.
* TIMING: LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION BY MID MORNING
THURSDAY. SNOW WILL INTENSIFY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BEFORE DIMINISHING THURSDAY NIGHT.
* MAIN IMPACT: SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE ON ROADWAYS WITH SUB-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES RESULTING IN SNOW COVERED AND SLICK ROADWAYS. THREE
TO FIVE INCH ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE EVENT.
* OTHER IMPACTS: PERIODIC REDUCED VISIBILITY WILL HAMPER DRIVING
AS WELL.
I just have one word to say…..BOO! I was hoping for more than 2 inches. ๐
That’s too funny – telegraph…hahahaha, thanks for the chuckle.
Everybody enjoy!
I AGREE!!!Bath, Rowan, Montgomery, and Fleming are feeling kinda lonely up here. Is anyone in Jackson today? Their watch for Fleming was posted at 4 am.
nws going 4-7 up here in nky!!!
Snow/sleet mix has been coming down heavily in London for the past 5-10 minutes.
I get a large bowl of snow, sprinkle it generously with sugar, add some vanilla (1/4-1/2 tsp depending on size of bowl), and add regular milk and mix. I start out with just a bit of milk and add more as needed. If it gets too moist, just add more snow! yummy
Fri January 21, 2011 6:00 AM
Description: …ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT… .AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY PRODUCING ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. SNOW WILL BEGIN ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST- SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE ENTIRE EVENT WILL BE IN THE FOUR TO SIX INCH RANGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN INDIANA COUNTIES AS WELL AS NORTHEAST OF THE LOUISVILLE METRO AREA IN KENTUCKY. FARTHER SOUTH…EXPECT SNOW TOTALS OF THREE TO FIVE INCHES ACROSS THE REST OF NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND TWO TO FOUR INCHES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY. …WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM EST /10 AM CST/ THURSDAY TO 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/ FRIDAY… A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM EST /10 AM CST/ THURSDAY TO 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/ FRIDAY. * TIMING: LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL KENTUCKY ALONG THE OHIO RIVER BY MID MORNING THURSDAY AND INTO THE BLUEGRASS BY LATE MORNING. SNOW WILL INTENSIFY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING THURSDAY NIGHT. * MAIN IMPACT: SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE ON ROADWAYS WITH SUB- FREEZING TEMPERATURES RESULTING IN SNOW COVERED AND SLICK ROADWAYS. THREE TO FIVE INCHES ARE EXPECTED BY THURSDAY NIGHT…WITH FOUR TO SIX INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS OLDHAM AND HENRY COUNTIES IN KENTUCKY. * OTHER IMPACTS: PERIODIC REDUCED VISIBILITY WILL HAMPER DRIVING AS WELL.
Instructions: A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL…KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT… FOOD…AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.
That is what she said.
Aye… for the following
Anderson, KY;Bourbon, KY;Boyle, KY;Clark, KY;Fayette, KY;Franklin, KY;Garrard, KY;Harrison, KY;Jessamine, KY;Madison, KY;Marion, KY;Mercer, KY;Nicholas, KY;Scott, KY;Shelby, KY;Washington, KY; Woodford, KY
Chris, I’d appreciate you putting Owensboro in your snow totals too. It is the third largest city in Kentucky and I’m proof that someone from there is reading your blog!
If you were waiting for a reply sorry no one did. Unfortunately someone else was first. Keep posting though
Of two years of following this post that is the first!!!!!LOL
GREENUP-GALLIA-LAWRENCE-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…FLATWOODS…RUSSELL…RACELAND…
GALLIPOLIS…IRONTON…SOUTH POINT
346 PM EST WED JAN 19 2011
…WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THURSDAY TO 7 AM EST
FRIDAY…
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR SNOW…WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THURSDAY TO 7
AM EST FRIDAY. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.
* ACCUMULATIONS: 2 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW.
* TIMING: THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL THURSDAY EVENING AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
* IMPACTS: UNTREATED ROADS WILL LIKELY BECOME SNOW AND ICE COVERED.
* TEMPERATURES: TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S AFTER THE SNOW STARTS…WITH TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOWER 20S OVERNIGHT.
Chris,
It is snowing right now in Clay County. It was a unexpected surprise when I walked outside my school this evening.
GET WITH THE PROGRAM AND LOOK AT THE MAP OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS YOU IDIOTS! WHAT HAPPENED TO YOU GUYS, WHAT USED TO BE A DECENT WEATHER CENTER HAS TURNED INTO THE LAUGHING STOCK OF THE WEATHER COMMUNITY. I BELIEVE THAT 2-4 INCHES AT LEAST FITS WWA CRITERIA. QUIT BEING DUMB AND AT LEAST ISSUE A WWA SO PPL WILL KNOW SOMETHING IS COMING. WAKE UP!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=LMK&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1
In this discussion the NWS actually said– get this: “THE SNOW IS COMING”
LOL!!!! Read it! ๐
And– they are saying more light snow/flurries for Saturday and maybe more snow with Monday and Tuesday system. Yippee!!
Frozen bunnies as far as the eye can see!!! ๐
WWA along TN & WV borders.
My neighbors are actually taking bets on the Old Timer across the street being right about his 6-8″ snow prediction based on the moon ring and the fog this morning. ๐
Gotta love it..
They finally issued a WWA, I told you their telegraph was down. I’m glad you said what I was thinking, they are a joke, I hope they get every forecast wrong for the rest of the year and that every single one of them get fired.
LOL….snowfall maps for my backyard..
chris….1-3″
Jim Caldwell….1-2″
T.G. Shuck….. 3-5″ into northern knox co.
Easy there rode-yote…
I havent seen JC post since his first call snow map at 10:30 last night. Has he upgraded?
Has JC posted a new snow map?
same one from earlier
anyone wanna chat snowfall in thier back yard?
http://ekywx.com/kychat.htm
Reading the 36 hour forecast from the weather channel on my iphone. Here’s how it reads: Tomorrow- scattered showers in the morn will give way to mix of rain and snow, accumulations less then a inch. Tomorrow night- snow will taper off, around 1 inch? Then why the WSW? Updated at 3:09 Wed
Because it is TWC and they are clueless. Just pay them no attention they really mean no harm…lol
although everyone has had the urge!
Well all I can say is I hope that you guys in the WSW get a crapton of snow. Think of us poor people in the 1-4 inch category on Chris’ map….we will be reading your posts with envy.
Chris, I liked the earlier map better….2-4 is a better chance than 1-3…just sayin’ ๐
Im thinking 4-6 for a lot of lmk’s wsw.
well im no weatherman but i enjoy it… so check out my site! just click my name lol I give my thoughts, oh also. I added a sports section just for you guys, since were not allowed to talk about a few things on here ๐
The snow is looking pretty good back west over Missouri.
I’m hoping so myself! This is gonna be a nice snowfall!
BTW, early next week is looking pretty good too!
Thanks guys! My great grandmother used to make it for us and I’m hoping to pass that same tradition on to my children….nothing like spending time with the kids and making the snow a special time for everyone ๐
Thanks to all of you….hope to make some this week ๐
Snowing at a rate of 1-2 inches per hour in parts of Missouri.
i live in manchester (clay co)..is there ANY possibility the snow totals will rise for our neck of the woods???? 1-3 is a little depressing at the moment!!! sounds stingy, huh??? ๐
yeah, and thundersnow is forecasted as well !!!
b hell im alive, im with my best riends in world here even though ive never met u.
why cant we have a fet togther for bloggers this spring or summer say at KEENELAND. anybody interested post it and we schedule a date at KEENELAND maybe for the spring meet in APRIL.
Nothing on the radar, but my deck got a little dusting.
princess tomm nitye after 8pm thru friday morning u will get 4 incjhes maybe more, my latest info says as much.
who are u what part of CLAY u live in, im 36 year old and live on curry branch on east 80.
Chris,
Any chance of some accumulating snow tonight in southeastern Ky. Just got another shot of a good snow shower here. I wish this storm would move down south a little more where south and southeaster Ky would pick up a little more. Thanks for the update Chirs. Can’t wait till the next one? As anyone else getting some snow right now?
my last forcast, rocastle south 4-8
north of that 6-10 higher amounts on river.
I’m predicting 3-6 inches for northern ky. Also any where from 1-4 inches in the rest of ky
Rolo, I’d be honored to meet you! First round is on me.