Good Wednesday everyone and thanks for all you guys do for the center. After a rainy vacation… Old man winter has moved back into the region and won’t waste much time getting things back to where they were. A fast moving winter storm will blow across the state Thursday into Thursday night and will put down a decent snowfall for many.
Let’s break it all down for you…
– Light snow will streak eastward late tonight into early Thursday and reach western and northern Kentucky by morning. This should put down a light accumulation and may have an impact on the Thursday morning commute in the Louisville and Cincy/northern Ky. metro areas.
– Snow will rapidly intensify across western Kentucky by late Thursday morning and head eastward from there. A wall of snow will show up on radar at this time and will overtake central and eastern Kentucky by late afternoon into the early evening hours.
– Western parts of the state will see the heaviest snows during the afternoon… Central Kentucky during the evening hours with our eastern counties seeing the heaviest snow Thursday evening into the wee hours of Friday morning.
– The steady, heavier snows will only last for a 6 to 10 hour period at any one location.
– Snows will rapidly taper off from west to east Thursday night with only some flurries remaining by daybreak Friday.
– The highest totals will be in the north with lighter amounts for those counties along the Tennessee border. Here is the updated snow forecast….
I really didn’t make any substantial changes to the forecast and will have another map update before I put out the Final Call For Snowfall this evening.
Arctic air will spill into the region on Friday as temps drop into the teens and have a tough time rising from there. If we can clear the skies out Friday night… temps would make a run at 0…. but we have to get clear skies for that to happen.
A weak clipper will then throw some light snow and flurries in here over the weekend as temps stay cold. That may set the stage for bigger system early next week that has the look of bringing another good snowfall to our part of the world.
Speaking of snow… you will likely see some flakes flying today. Much colder air has moved into the area bringing some snow showers and flurries back in. Track them here…
More updates will be coming your way later today so be sure to check back. Have a great Wednesday and take care.
Select Page
Thank you for all the updates!!! I check your blog first thing every morning for the lastest update and every night before I go to bed. Will keep dancing so the snow will keep falling!!!!
First.
As always, Chris, thank you so very much for all that you do for us. The weather impacts each and every one of us in vastly different ways and your hard work helps each of us become better prepared for whatever impact that will be.
As for me and my thoughts on your forecast, in my role of a wife and mother who must watch her family get out on the roads at all hours to go to jobs that do not grant weather days, my wish is for us to be on the low end of your snow map! 🙂 I love the beauty of a snow, especially a heavy one and having grown up in KY, I have lived through the old “glory” days when we would get 18 + inches or more! So I know what folks are meaning when they say they want their kids to see a snow like that. It is amazing when the earth is covered in white! Nothing quite like it! However, I just wish that it didn’t come with all of the problems that it brings – icy roads, frozen pipes, electrical outages due to broken lines, survival problems for the elderly, the homeless, animals, etc etc etc. Figure out a way to accomplish a monster storm without all that and I will join all of you in wishing for those “old school” storms! Otherwise, I am ready for some warmer weather! Sorry folks, don’t hate me for saying that – just stating my general thoughts on winter weather on this weather blog! 🙂
Chris, I hope that you get rested tonight – it looks as though you have some very long nights coming your way! Everyone, stay safe, stay warm, and enjoy whatever it is that comes our way!
I hate to diss the Jackson weather service, but do they use any weather forecasting tools, or do they just go outside and look up and determine what it might do. Anyone know?
Thanks Chris. You were right about the NWS needing to extend the WSW south and east a bit more, as they have done just that this morning to the Lexington area.Looks like the kids may get a 3 day weekend. Sounds like more snow and cold the next few weeks.
NWS (Wilmington, Oh )has issued a Winter Storm WARNING for our area in Mason County, Ky. they’re giving 4-5 inches possible.
What is the NWS in Nashvile smoking?
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
438 AM CST WED JAN 19 2011
.SHORT TERM…IT WAS CLOUDY AND COOL ACROSS THE MID STATE EARLY
THIS MORNING, WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 30S NORTH
TO LOWER 40S SOUTH. LIGHT SNOW AND DRIZZLE IS OCCURRING AT WFO
NASHVILLE AT THIS TIME, AND WILL LEAVE PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FLURRIES
IN THE FORECAST FOR EARLY TODAY.
EXPECT SOME PARTLY SUNNY SKIES TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY..ESPECIALLY
SOUTH AND WEST, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS PUSHING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S.
STILL EXPECT A COLD BLAST OF CANADIAN AIR TO SWEEP IN ON THURSDAY,
WITH A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW PROGRESSING EASTWARD ALONG
THE OUTER EDGE OF THIS SURGE OF FRIGIDITY. SNOW WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP IN OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND THEN
SPREAD CROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT, BEFORE
TAPERING OFF LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT DROPS OUT
OF KENTUCKY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND MAY HELP TO KEEP AT LEAST A
CHANCE OF SNOW GOING INTO THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER, AFTER
THAT SECONDARY FRONT PASSES, CLEARING SHOULD TAKE PLACE PRETTY
RAPIDLY, WITH PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AREA-WIDE BY LATE
FRIDAY MORNING. STILL LOOKS LIKE SNOW AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE BETWEEN
ONE AND TWO INCHES, WITH THE PLATEAU GETTING ITS TYPICAL
COMPLIMENTARY ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO DUE TO OROGRAPHICS.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPS TOWARD MIDDLE TENNESSEE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
BRINGS AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR FLURRIES OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN
AREAS.
.LONG TERM…SEASONABLY COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING IN FOR NEXT MONDAY AND
TUESDAY, BRINGING ALONG A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW. AFTER THAT, WE
MAY BE LOOKING AT AN EVOLVING LONG WAVE PATTERN CHANGE, AS THE MEAN EAST
COAST TROUGH PUSHES OFF TOWARD NEWFOUNDLAND, RIDGE BUCKLES OF WEST
COAST AND A MEAN SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH DEVELOP FROM BAJA
CALIFORNIA NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THUS, BELIEVE A
GENERAL TREND TOWARD MILDER CONDITIONS TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK LOOKS LIKE A REASONABLE POSSIBILITY. IN ADDITION, LATEST
ARCTIC OSCILLATION TREND FORECASTS ARE CONSISTENTLY LEANING TOWARD
A MILDER PATTERN AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE END OF THE MONTH.
UGH………….Yeah!! Really!
Hey Chris……Please tell us that they are indeed smoking something and this isn’t so!
i am curious as to why the 3 local stations in lex have not put out any snow maps. and they keep saying there is a “possibility for snow”. we passed that point last week! are they going to wait til thursday afternoon before they let their loyal minions know about this? how will they go get their french toast supplies?
I hope it is all true and it turns 70 degrees!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
UGH moderation! i will say it again.
why don’t the local Lexington stations have any maps out yet? we are 36 hours out from this snow, and they are still saying “possibility for snow”. meanwhile CB was way past that last week. don’t people need to hurry out and raid the stores for french toast supplies?
Boo! Darth Bubba appears to be correct. CB adjusted with a slight north east slant and now Richmond is AGAIN on the line. I think the map suggest more snow than will actually hit south & south east areas. North will probably be considerably more spread than the map implies. Low end will be south and high end north. As usual, I expect a hilarious difference between the KY river – north and south.
Boo!
There is a place called Florida that might work for you. Move south if you aren’t happy
@MJ… question for ya’.. the NAM and GFS models have been consistent all week long in bringing this snow into central KY Thursday evening. The current NWS forecast brings it in during the morning. Where is the timing in the zone forecast coming from? Do you guys have a secret tool that you aren’t telling anyone about? 🙂
I was thinking last night that if they expanded the WSW area, it would include Fayette, but not Jessamine (where I live). Lo and behold, this morning that’s exactly what they do!
hey jacka$$, lay off, she has a right to her opinion and don’t need jerk like you coming on here bashing her over it …. go back to looking at your X X X sites ……… run an tell that !!
Sorry Mr. CLEAN…just a pipe dream…cold and snow here to stay. Nashville peeps are drunk, lol
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA BY THURSDAY EVENING AND
CONTINUE THOUGH THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING TO SNOW SHOWERS ON
FRIDAY. STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE
LIKELY FROM THIS EVENT.
IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW…AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL INFILTRATE THE AREA
ON FRIDAY WITH WIND CHILL READINGS REMAINING IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
FOR MOST OF THE DAY.
SNOW IS AGAIN POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
I don’t get what you mean by your comment?
just passed bluegrass army depot and turned on hwy 421 toward jackson county and ran into snow showers, coming down hard with huge flakes. anybody else seeing snow ??
first one got moderated …. so i’ll try again … it is snowing on hwy 421 going into jackson county
We bumped the timing up a bit. Models are usually too slow with precip moving in. While we did precip in faster, best accumulations will be in the afternoon and evening.
Was wondering this myself. Exactly when should we expect the flakes to begin falling?
OMG edwardo .. run an tell that —- that video is so stinking hilarious, the most watched youtube ever, I can’t get that stupid song out of my mind …. we’re gonna find you!! thanks for the laugh … oh yea, i agree with the comment, no need for that kind on here!! peace out peoples
Any truth to rumors flying around about Louisville area being bumped up to the 4-8″ range?? Hmmm….conference call at 10 with NWS LMK
freezing rain and snow in london right now, nothing sticking to the roads though. how much is london supposed to get from this “big” storm?
I’ve been a daily viewer of this site for a few winters now, I must say it’s complexion has certainly changed. Some of the people that post stuff on here, are extremely rude. At one point in time this blog wasn’t that big, and the community was extremely close. Slowly it’s drifted Apart which is expected when u have weather this accurate on a blog, the point is. What happen to the good Ol days? Hahah
Just curious, but why? Their forecast and Chris’s seems to line up pretty well.
I agree completely!!
didnt get cold enough for snow down here in knox co. overnight..37* and still raining outside…hmmm, i just wonder if this will be the same scenario for thursday/friday…rain in extreme se..ky..?!.
no snow here in Barbourville, just plain ole rain, and 37*
I have Louisville getting 4-6″ of snow.
BANG !!!!
It’s kinda funny Edwardo, that you say that she has a right to her opinion but Tom doesnt. It seem his opinion is to move somewhere warmer, so your argument and rant is hypocrtical and you should probably shut your worthless mouth (my opinion).
It’s kinda funny Edwardo, that you say that she has a right to her opinion but Tom doesnt. It seem his opinion is to move somewhere warmer, so your argument and rant is hypocrtical and you should probably shut your worthless mouth (my opinion).
I seriously doubt it. This storm looks to blow through here so fast that if Louisville gets 3 inches they’ll be lucky. If it would slow down, maybe. But the flow aloft is sweeping things along too quickly.
I seriously doubt it. This storm looks to blow through here so fast that if Louisville gets 3 inches they’ll be lucky. If it would slow down, maybe. But the flow aloft is sweeping things along too quickly.
LOL.
I was thinking last night that if they expanded the WSW area, it would include Fayette, but not Jessamine (where I live). Lo and behold, this morning that’s exactly what they do!
Nothing on the radar again , yet the snow is coming down out there!
I was thinking last night that if they expanded the WSW area, it would include Fayette, but not Jessamine (where I live). Lo and behold, this morning that’s exactly what they do!
scott county noth 4-8 inches.
south of that u goinhg see rain, mix then to snow and be lucky to see 1-2 inches at best
Seem the north-west will get the high end of CB’s map and the low end of the range for south-east. Seems another fence for totals.
Wall of snow will be thinner, the more south-east.
Any chance of a more easterly flow? Not seeing it, but you never know.
I was thinking last night that if they expanded the WSW area, it would include Fayette, but not Jessamine (where I live). Lo and behold, this morning that’s exactly what they do!
ok, so tell us in a nutshell what was said in the conference call. I didn’t get invited this time. 🙂
OH the WEATHER OUTSIDE IS FRIGHTFUL…THIS BLOG IS SO DELIGHTFUL..LET IT SNOW…LET SNOW…LET SNOW…
I’ll say 1-2″ sounds reasonable for se. ky. tn/ky bordering counties…since its still 37* here and drizzle/light rain…looks like se.ky. could be the boundary area
it’s kinda funny that you can’t spell and your opinion means nothing to me
Louisville and northward, 4-6″ possible per NWS conference call. I think the overall 3-5″ call I have going since Monday looks great. This is storm total, of course. 12Z models haven’t changed much.
Here we go again…. rolo give it a break already for crying out loud. A mentally challenged wombat knows more about predicting weather than you.
Wombats are generally regarded as the animal kingdom’s foremost meteorological predictors.
actually think that is to high for lexington region. NAM bufkit only prints out 2.7 inches at Lexington.
My neighbor (old timer) says he thinks we will get much more than people expect, what with the ring around the moon, the fog and such lately. 🙂
not conerned about mix dynamical cooling should change things to snow quickly.
Hey, do you hear that? It’s the sound of ole Rolo Flip-flopping.
best lift appears to be in TN now and the first period of snow Thursday morning across far northern KY. Expect a lot of regions to fall in the 1-3 range in my view.
So LEX and surrounding counties look to get the 13 year shaft again. Can’t buy more than 4″ in an event to save our lives!
I agree…I just hope and pray that people show some manners causeI’m afraid that if they don’t Chris may shut the blog down. He does this out of the goodness of his heart and love of weather…
Rolo, this system is not as much an issue of cold air as it is the actual flow of the system. CB’s snow total map implies a more steady east flow, but this seems to be more a fence for north-west and south-east KY.
Not seeing anything that makes this system behave differently than usual. CB’s map and cutting point for totals even suggests this already (just look at the line that cuts it that way).
Come on snow- prove me wrong 🙂
Does Darth get another system under his evil belt, or does the good side of the force finally win?
A general 4″ for the state, or 4″ plus for north of 64 and less on down- especially from the Kentucky river on down (a lot less)?
I place my bets on Darth. Seems more a chance for a fence event in regerds to totals.
Agreed. Fence system for snow totals. Question is will it be I64 or more along the KY river?
Summary: North west & north equals snow happy. Not seeing 4″ for areas other than that. 2″ seems a more likely result for most (in general).
Be nice to see data that suggests otherwise 🙂
I agree Lincoln! We had lots of folk here that helped read maps, models, etc back then. Some even helped with those of us not so computer literate (Bernie). We all talked about family, loss of loved ones, and what we’d prepare to eat when the “Big one” finaly came. Everyone was polite and caring. I miss those people and that time.
Well not the mentally challenged ones…
Well said Patty. I hope the spirit you mention here returns to the board….
A reminder the track is not determined yet and the models could easily shift. You might want to hold off a little longer before making predictions in anyone place. Will be interesting to see how CB adjust his snowfall projections in his next update.
Hmmm. Loooong gap between CBs post and even his Tweets. This type of gap has never seemed to result in better news, but no change- or worse.
Good day to all. Have been seeing a little sleet and rain mix here in Somerset this morning. I know the temp has dropped. Our local forecast (from TWC) sys we will see rain and snow showers. Makes no mention whatsoever of any accumulations for us here. This seems to indicate that we will be the fence this time to me. In any event, its going to get cold for sure, after the storm passes.
Waiting to see what Chris has to say in the next update.
I agree, KY river is a line in the sand (or snow)..It is amazing! Espically if you lived right on clays ferry..I wish richmond could manage 4 out of this though (would be nice)..then I hope the next systems could deliver as well!!!!
I do not know. I just finished my last mid and am now off duty for the next few days. Wave3 blog has some stuff about the conf call.
Agreed! The newbies are not of the same caliber as the founding weather lovers…..I say we stay and refuse to let the others taint this wonderful source of information and conversation that deals with weather and nothing else. People please be nice or move along!
spitting snow here in Georgetown!!! Could it be the colder is moving in faster that we thought…hmmmmm
Hey guys, who has a recipe for snow cream? My great-grandmother used to make it for us and the recipe died along with her and we miss it.
I agree Patty so different now.
Came to me today but the time I got it is odd.
…WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT…
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH…WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
* TIMING: LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL
KENTUCKY BY MID MORNING THURSDAY AND INTO THE BLUEGRASS BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL INTENSIFY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING THURSDAY NIGHT.
* MAIN IMPACT: SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE ON ROADWAYS WITH SUB-
FREEZING TEMPERATURES RESULTING IN SNOW COVERED AND SLICK
ROADWAYS. THREE TO FIVE INCHES ARE EXPECTED BY THURSDAY NIGHT.
* OTHER IMPACTS: PERIODIC REDUCED VISIBILITY WILL HAMPER DRIVING
AS WELL.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…
A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE LATEST FORECASTS.
—-
sorry if this was posted earlier
I’m sure CB is going into ALERT mode, even as I’m trying to type this. Lexington, don’t get too down. I think you’ll get your 4″+
Hey Big Orange,
I’m up at Clay’s Ferry…precisely on the fence line as Bubba likes to call it. Are you in the city proper or up the 4 lane a bit toward Lexington?
Met friend of mine says this will be a quick hitting snow with 1-4″ statewide. He’s a smart guy!
Quite of bit of difference between 4 inches and 8 inches..Don’t leave yourself much room to say you were wrong..If you gonna predict the weather i say if you cannot get within 2 inches you lose..So i’ll predict 5 inches exactly for parts of northern ky and 2 inches for south..