Good evening everyone. We continue to be in Winter Storm Threat mode for Thursday into early Friday as things continue to progress nicely toward a storm putting down several inches of snow. There is a very strong chance we upgrade to ALERT status tomorrow.
The folks at the NWS offices are trying to get ahead of the game with some watches and advisories…
A couple of thoughts about that map…
– I think the watch from the NWS Louisville is too far west and north and should extend all the way into the Lexington Metro.
– The entire map will fill in with watches then warnings and advisories later tonight into Wednesday.
– I am not a fan of the “lead time” in putting out watches and advisories. Not at all actually. I think it’s silly and causes more confusion for the general public. Most people get their weather in passing without reading forecasts or discussions. To the casual weather watcher in the counties that are not listed in a watch or advisory… they will look at that map and say… well the snow isn’t going to hit my area. That is certainly not the case… but it’s what people will be thinking. My question is… if you know you are going to issue a watch or advisory for the entire region… why select only a few counties to put those out now then fill in the rest of the region 12 hours later? This is not a bash… but I honestly have never understood the whole criteria and lead time argument when it comes to winter weather events. There… I feel much better.
The First Call For Snowfall map looks to be in good shape at the moment…
I may have to add a stripe of higher totals near the far northern Kentucky area. I will make that call later tonight.
A few more thoughts…
– The models are suggesting a streak of light snow breaks out across parts of the state late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Western Kentucky into much of central and northern parts of the state will be the favored areas to pick up some light accumulations early Thursday.
– A wall of snow will work eastward across the state late Thursday into Thursday night. This will be a quick and hard hitting snow and should provide a period of the heaviest snow of the winter. It is from this batch that we get the bulk of the accumulations.
– Snow will rapidly end from west to east early Friday morning with a few flurries and snow showers possible. There really isn’t much of an upslope flow behind this storm.
– Arctic air will then filter in for Friday with temps struggling to get out of the teens. Friday night looks COLD with lows approaching 0. Brrrrr.
– A flurry or very light snow maker will try to move in this weekend with a bigger system developing for early next week. That one is really showing up on my radar!
I may try to update again late this evening… but will have a full update coming your way later tonight. Have a great evening and take care.
Select Page
First? hA HA Thanks Chris, we look forward to your calls.
first/ LET IT SNOW
Thanks Chris keep moving that line farther south lol.
D$#% YOU COLE! j/k of course.
hope to see a higher snow total added to map, likely would include southeast ohio I’m guessing/praying!
Any change that the heavier snow line might move south?
Really makes you wonder about the one next week when Chris says it has his attention when we have this one here coming at us.Might be a nice little snow.
Ah yessss, all the bunnies will be frozen stiff. 😉
Thanks Chris! Keep the waves of snow coming, maybe we will get a foot yet. 🙂
Keep it coming, already looking forward to next week. By the way, anybody know what all that green stuff is all over the ground? It’s been a very interesting winter so far, weird when I look outside and see all the green grass, just doesn’t look right with all the snow we’ve had.
Whats all that green stuff outside? Looks funny!
Anybody have feelings for a light snow tonight? Just checked AccuWeather, and they are calling for 1.7″ in my area. Pobably not gonna happen, but is there a chance of a little snow?
Seems is is more an issue of if it will flow more due east, rather than north-east. I more southern flow would not be too likely.
Unless this thing heads more north east, most of KY should get a few inches with the wall of snow CB mentions. As CB mentioned, east KY will not get the extra hit they normally get with this one.
This could be a MEGA drive-by snow, since a few inches for all folks and more as you go north.
6″ for Bell Co….
Any chance for a light snow tonight? AccuWeather is calling for 1.7″ in my area for tonight.
See…this is the BubbaG I love 😉
If anything, we have more of a chance of a more north east trend than a due east one.
Be nice to be wrong so all KY folks get a wall of snow 🙂 Seems we have more of a chance with an angled wall rather than a straight one across KY.
The map currently shows a 2″ margin from north and south KY. Seems too straight (due east), but you never know.
If CB back peddles (shits map), it is heading north east and if he he holds or ups totals, it is going more due east.
Best case seems north KY, but why would THAT be a surprise 😉
Dang, my typing has gone Rolo on me. I sure hope my last post that is in moderation never posts, since I meant to type “shifts maps” and noticed too late the “f” was not there. Oops!
As somebody with a taste of presenting weather to the general public myself I must say that I agree with Chris 100% on this. Sometimes the government red tape actually causes the very thing they are trying to prevent.
I’ve often wondered something similar, why don’t forecast offices,”nowcast”, much like they do for severe weather outbreaks? You put out a general watch for the area then as you see heavier snow bands that could adversely impact travel conditions in an area you issue WSW’s for those counties. As opposed to a given entire area not meeting warning criteria so you end up not issuing a warning for any county in your forecast area, even those that are in need of one.
Much like Chris, I’m not bashing the NWS offices. I can read radar and put two and two together for myself but, a of people can not and rely on those offices treating what they issue as Gospel. So is it a local office call or a national standard that local offices are obligated to meet?
I was wondering about this too! Anyone care to give some information on this?
Same here! Hoping it puts Thursday’s snow to shame! TWC is already showing snow Mon-Wed.
Also wondering since NWS is calling for 3-5 inches, does that mean more is to fall? Just from my observations, they under estimate a lot! Or did they take a peek at CBs map? lol
Bubba, I am a frequent reader/follower and always look forward to your posts. How do you know so much about weather? Self-taught?
Just cut-paste last 12+ winters…
Simple calculation really, and he will tell ya the same thing.. 😉
Just cut-paste last 12+ winters…
Simple calculation really, and he will tell ya the same thing.. 😉
http://img508.imageshack.us/img508/1655/kywildcatsflame.gif
Thought I’d try this… hope it works…
Go cats!!
Dont forget and come chat…
http://www.ekywx.com/kychat.htm
I was just hoping I might get a bit more down my way 😉
Thanks for all you do Chris. This blog is where I go to REALLY know what’s in store for us on the weather front. We’ll be watching for our next snow in Somerset.
When are the next round of forecast maps due out? Looking forward to what you guys have to say about them
Chris Bailey is the world’s greatest weather dude. Thanks for all the frequent updates. You rock, CB, and this blog is the best. I enjoy reading the insights of the regular posters. Thanks to all! Oh, and bring on the snow…
I second this post
Chris, the only thing I can wish on this map is that the deeper line would move further south. I really would like to get a really good snow. With all due respect, we have had more snow this winter than we’ve had in the past ten, but the BIG one still eludes us…
I DO hope that you guys in Richmond and Etown manage to get 6 or more. (Of course, I wish we here in south central KY could get that much and more. ~sigh~ guess I will be happy and not complain…just hoping we don’t wind up getting a lot of cold rain and little to none in the snow department.
I am a forecaster by training and education, but for the business world.
All I do is take a composite (fancy word for average) of the models and look at the trend of the system once it becomes “live”.
This system seems more favorable for a north east slant, rather than a due east. I could see CB boost the north and keep the other areas as they are (he already mentioned it). I expect the wall of snow to be a shrinking one as you go south, unless the system travels more due east.
Seems the spread CB has posted should have a bigger marginal spread, since the 2″ difference from north to south seems too tight.
Be nice to be wrong and all of KY gets the wall of snow. Another two or three incher’ will be lame and just another drive-by.
Except a white Christmas, I HATE these small snows, since more dangerous and no return as far as a “fun” factor. IMO, rain is better than small snows.
I’m gay. Really gay. In a Ricky Gervais kind of way. Just thought you all should know. Can we get registered names on here, Chris?
Coffee,
I would prefer rain over a couple inch snow. Not worth the trouble it causes. Hard time sleighing, snowmen are snowbabies and even snowball fights are efforts in frustration.
Most probably do not agree, but even kids will have second thoughts when they are sitting in school later than normal in the spring.
I hope CB did not set himself up with that “wall of snow” description. Due east or an improbable southern slant would be nice and help The Wall.
CB could then post Pink Floyd’s “Brick in the Wall” as a reference 😉
Think: Due east 😉
Just say NO to a north east slant 🙂
When all is said and done, it really IS the same thing 😉
oZ NAM in line with GFS now. Nice 3-6 snowfall for a big portion of the state
Wave 3 BG upgraded to 7 twix, LOL.
I see the Red Baron pulls some weight?
Anybody see his comment on wave’s previous blog post? Who is this guy?
I find a lot of nice links posted in the comments. Any new maps or other links anyone could post would be greatly appreciated!
I need a fix before the next update!
thanks in advance.
A respected Meteorologist.
As mentioned earlier, if Lville is getting 7″, either the system is traveling more north east, or most of KY should get 4″ or more.
Something’s gotta give.
BTW, barring a near miracle comeback, the Cats once again are choking against a team that pushes them. Other teams start pushing the game to the Cats…..When was the last time Cal lost ten games or more in a season?
does anyone know if this will be a wet or dry powdery snow..a couple in wet snow will put a big ole smile on my face :P…i’ll take what i can get!!! thanks to chris for all he does, and the insight of our regulars..thanks!! 😛
You’ve got your miracle comeback.
The closer the temp is to 32F, the wetter and packier the snow is. The colder you get from freezing you get, the snow becomes more powdery and dry, thus higher ratios.
thanks, that was very informative..:)
Let it snow
On a non weather related note. Doesn’t look like we will lose any freshman to the pros next year. Is that the same team that scorched LSU last weekend?
TG’s getting ready to give me his spin on the weather. Ye Ha.
Almost, but a loss is a loss. These one and done freshmen teams will start hitting diminished returns, since you can not have teams like last year- every year.
Jones will probably leave, but hopefully the rest stay and build from this year.
On another non weather related note( apology here) while watching TG and the news on WKYT, how do you forget to turn your car off in the garage and go to bed with it still running?
This team is missing some very important pieces…
Orton & Bledsoe were supposed to be back…
Kanter was supposed to be playing…
Dodson was supposed to be on the team…
4 big loses that Cal did not envision…
yet another big snow storm coming out of the gulf next Mon/Tues…
We will have to keep an eye on…
00Z GFS keeps this mostly suppressed to the south. Early to call though.
Cats will be loaded next year! So I guess we will take it on the chin this year! We are a great team at home, the road is going to be tough this year!!!!!
Todd, in regards to next year, you forget that while we do have some great players coming in, we will STILL be without any inside presence and even Harellson will be gone. This will again cause us matchup problems with a few other topflight teams. You have to have a big man to win the NCAA tourney. Unfortunately we won’t next year. I know Davis is 6-10 but he is not a bonafide big man. He is skinny and up until about a year ago was only 6-6″ so don’t count on him. I’ve heard Cal is looking in South America for a big man since there are no other top quality centers available here in the US. I had some high hopes for next year with all those 5 stars coming in but like this year, we appear to be missing a key piece of the puzzle in the middle.
I saw that! It looks impressive so far, but it is still early!
Not a snowballs chance in hell that we get a “biggie” out of this one. It will be mostly a rain event as the low will be too far south and east. It will be a strong enough low that it pulls warm air along the leading edge and mainly be light snow showers for a brief period on the backside. TAKE IT TO THE BANK. If i am wrong, I will admit it and give a big kudos to those who nail it. IMO
In my opinion this late week storm is not going to be a big deal. If SE KY sees more than a couple inches, i will be surprised. As well as E KY. This is going to be a quick hitter with the low not deepening until it reaches New England. Hope I am wrong though.
http://grib2.com/gfs/CONUS_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_120HR.gif
http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS_ETA212_SFC_SNOWDEPTH_84HR.gif
http://wxcaster.com/CONUS_ETA_1000-500_SLPPRPTHK_60HR.gif
http://wxcaster.com/CONUS_GFS_1000-500_SLPPRPTHK_66HR.gif
Better luck next storm 😉
with now wrap around snows and no LES, what we see INITIALLY is what we will get. 1-2 for Southern, Eastern SE KY and 2-3 for More Northern and North East KY. Models have a pretty good handle on the disturbance now. Pretty much set in stone
Dude seriously you are the grinch.
I’ll try to put this to good use immdeitaely.