Good Tuesday afternoon everyone. One a damp and dreary day… I can’t think of a better time to brighten the mood around here by talking snow. The Winter Storm Threat continues for Thursday into early Friday across the region.
We are less than two days away from the first flakes flying, so it’s time to put out a First Call For Snowfall…
As usual… I will be updating that forecast and changing things around a bit as we get closet to the storm impacting our region. You can see this is going to be a moderate event that can drop up to 4″ or a little more for much to the state.
It is fairly safe to say this will be a widespread 2″-4″ snow for everyone. There will be a nice swath of 3″-6″ snow setting up and that is likely to be across the northern half of our region. The lines and numbers on that map are not set in stone by any means and only serve as a rough outline for the first call. Once I can pinpoint the exact strength and track of the low… we should be able to firm up the numbers and lines a bit better.
Arctic air will surge in behind the snow for Friday as readings struggle to get out of the teens. Gusty winds will make it feel much colder. If we can get clear skies Friday night… look out… readings can make a run at 0.
In the weather present… we have a lot of rain falling across the region right now and you can track it here…
Colder air works in later tonight and will give us a shot of some light snow by Wednesday morning… especially in the east.
Ok… there you have it. I will have more updates as needed later today so make sure to check back. Have a great afternoon and take care.
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I’m speechless…..and we thought it was bad news lol….thank you Chris!!
Oh yeah and FIRST!!! I can’t believe it lol….how unbelievably lame am I ??!?!
3-6 whooohooo. keepin my fingers crossed….
We’ll see. We’ve been left at the altar before! lol
Hopefully the Richmond area will hit a minor jackpot this time, meaning 4″
it’s a pity we are wasting all the mouisture on rain today but at least it’s a 42 degree rain as opposed to 33.
You the man, thanks Chris
2-4″ for my area is fine, ive had alot this yr…whats another 3 or 4″ right?…lol…
I sure hope the 3-6″ zone is over BUBBA’S back-yard…lol..if not Plan (B) goes into effect..that is I’ve hired 10 snowplow trucks to haul and scrap all the snow in the county to bubba’s house….:)
See BUBBA I gottcha back !!!…:):)
I love snow!!! But I’m so sick of these little 2 to 6 inches ..Thats all we ever get, I’m so ready for an epic Blizzard and doesn’t look like we will ever receive one of those.. But I’ll take what we get.. Hopefully this snow will be enough snow for some sledding with my nephews and neices. with that said, Bring on the snow : )
So…..how many snow days has your district had so far this year and how does your district make them up?
Why does that line always go right through ETOWN??? Is it 2-4 or 3-6? Grrrrr!!
Oh the suspense!! 🙂
Good job Chris! Let ‘er RIP!!
It would be good to hit 4″,,,,,,,then the next storm could bring the foot….
Carroll County has had 6 snow days so far. We have 1 make up day already in the calendar, everything else is tagged onto the end of the year. If we miss Thursday and Friday, the students’ last day will be May 31 which is pretty typical. But, as a teacher, we won’t have another day off between now and Spring Break (just 58 school days) which will be an eternity. Here’s hoping it’s light on the totals.
Going to the Derby City Classic at Horseshoe’s Casino Friday afternoon. Looks like it might be take some time getting there but I’m staying til Sunday, so should be fun.
6 inches of snow would tickle me to death.
Our private school goes in early all year to ‘save up’ 3 snow days— which we have already used up. Any more days and they were talking about tacking on a half to an hour to the end of each school day left in the year from here on out…. instead of make up days. But, that is subject to change, and they will be tacked on May 18th and beyond.
Lame/ You are awesome..I love being first and everything about the ‘being first’ competition! This blog is just ‘da bomb (as my kids say)
Going to the Derby City Classic Friday afternoon at Horseshoe Casino, looks like it will be slow going. It’s mostly interstate, might not be too bad. Staying til Sunday so at least I don’t have to leave the casino unless I go broke. Hahaha
I can’t remember the last time i saw Woodford County and winter storm warning on the tv screen at the same time. Now that would be sweet.
CHRIS. NEXT MAP CAN YOU MOVE THE LINE JUST A TAD SOUTH OF ETOWN?!?
I expect an answer, mister!!
j/k, lol! 😉
We’re a small private school–three days so far. We’ve got tons extra built in, so I don’t think we’ll make them up.
Great job, Chris, I bet all of the school decision makers study your site (or should!!).
I like the idea of making the day a bit longer. You are alrady there and it sure saves from having to use up what little precious summer break we are given. I am really curious about Knox and Wolfe counties. My kids always whine and say they wish they lived in Wolfe….They just don’t get it, do they?
Might ne slow going for me to get to the Derby City Classic at Horseshoe Casino. Going Friday afternoon but staying til Sunday so once I get there, I don’t have to leave. Unless I go broke. Hahaha
ANOTHER meeeeeeeeeeeeeeeetooooooooooo!!
That would be a big ole YOOOOOOOHOOOOOO!!
I hope to see the 6 inches in Frankfort. We seem to be in that little pocket of getting the short end of the stick. Let it snow!!!
At least you’ve had that much at one time. Best I’ve had at my place was 3″. I’d consider it epic if I got 6″ from one storm.
Expectations areas north and south along Hwy. 127 for Thursday/Thursday night:
1. Except for extreme north a mixture of precip on Thursday. Danville south higher chances of plain rain. Changing to all snow by 7-9pm.
2. Snow accumulations 3″ north with isolated higher amounts.
3. Snow accumulations 2″ or less Cynthiana south to Danville.
4. Snow accumulations 1″ or less south to Tn. border.
Thoughts anyone?
I tried posting this earlier, but, moderation got me! Anyway, this might make many of you happy in the Louisville area. RED BARON is a well respected man who has helped develope a weather model called the CAPz5. You won’t find it anywhere, as he has exclusive rights to it. However, this model is dead on 48hrs out and closer, as he proved last year, by posting predictions on Belski’s blog, and hitting basically every storm. So, here’s what he has to say about the upcoming event:
The Red Baron said…
Greetings, it has been a longtime since I last posted. I just returned from my observation post atop Mt. Washington. Dieter Von Braun and I have been working steadfastly on the beta version of the CAPz 6 model, however it is not quite ready to launch. Therefore, I will be updating you with the latest runs of my legacy CAPz 5 model. As you know from last year, the CAPz 5 is a very capable model and consistently and correctly forecasted every major winter storm….48 hrs out. Average deviation of forecasted snowfall to actual snowfall was .2145 inches.
The 12Z run of the CAPz 5 brings phasing to the area beginning late Thursdays into early Friday morning. Liquid precip is .63 inches with average ratios of 12:1. That would bring a little over 7.5 inches of snow. Allthough I don’t necessarily agree with the run, it is hard to throw out the models past performance. Look for the NAM, GFS, and EURO to slowly come into agreement with CAPz 5 in the next 24-36 hrs. Will update if later runs bring any significant change.
Mr. Goode, based on the above, please upgrade to 7 Twix. I assure you, if you don’t do it now, you will be doing it when it is too late for proper preparations to be made.
my post has been moderated 4 times now in the last 45 minutes…getting frustrating. I really want you guys to see this, too. Oh well…I will just say that a certain weather model has 7.5″ coming our way in the Louisville area, and it’s rather accurate, too. Hopefully, my post will get on here, and you guys can see it soon enough.
I’m in south Woodford….I want a foot of snow…but I’ll take a solid six inches if we can get it!!
Care to share?, PLEASE!!! that would be too sweet
I am in South Woodford as well. I, too, would love one of those snows from the late 70’s. I remember ’78 so well and I was just a little kid. Although, I have teen drivers now and would worry myself sick if tehy had todrive to work in alot of snow. I want a shut the town down kinda snow (on a weekend).
I like what you see. If I am correct, you been calling this several days now. In Shelby Co. Bring it!
C-Biv…Hey the CAPz 5 was pretty accurate last year. I am not sure excactly what that model is or were it even came from “MIT I beleive”. The Red Baron visited Belski’s blog several times last year. We will have to wait and see what the next few model runs have to say. If RAKEMAKER was around he would more than likely be putting out a MOVE Watch…THINK SNOW
I’ve tried to show it…but, it keeps getting moderated. So, I’m hoping CB accepts the post soon, before it gets lost in the shuffle. It’s a model that was developed by someone, and it’s spot on 48 hours out and closer. I have been calling for 6+” for a few days, yes. Sometimes i’m right, sometimes, not, lol..but, the last one I said 4-6″ and at my house we got right at 4″. So, it was the low end. I’m hoping this time, it’s the high end, and I even have a respectable model to back me up. Just keep looking for it. Hope, it posts!
Public school teachers can’t bank days that way. Students can but teachers have to work a certain number of days which means that if a public school used the same strategy as your school then teachers would have to work a bunch of days at the end of the school year without students.
What would it take for this to overachieve? What if, when the phasing begins, it slows down. Is that possible?
It would need to phase a little earlier and we would need a little more blocking
thanks! well, lets hope for some earlier phasing and some blocking to occur.
We hit 4″ and above, my Chihuahua will start getting worried…. One of my sons will have to make a path for Flowey to go potty.
Darth Bubba does NOT approve! 😉
Tired to reply to blizzardtim, but it wouldn’t let me.
Chris, you need to move the 6 inch line clear down to include Pulaski County! We have had several snow events, but not that much all at one sitting. Anf Tim, those trucks can make twotrips and fill in aroundmy house and yard, too! 😉
sorry everybody this is going to be a flop …. but good news for me — spring is coming early this year i am on my way! yahoooooooooooooooo here comes the warm weather, so long snowbirds … eat it !!!!!!
That’s funny…once again, good luck with that “here comes the warm weather”. Maybe, in May, yes…and FYI: “snowbirds” are ppl who fly away to florida for the winter. So, that really doesn’t make sense to me when you say, so long snowbirds, haha.
You’re on the bottom of the food chain and I love eating rabbit on a nice snowy day:) I’M GAME!!!
Sorry but those numbers are a little high for the current models. I’d say 4″ is the most KY will see with more like 2-3″ across central KY. I could be wrong though, this one is a little tricky, hopefully the system slows down somehow, but don’t really know how that would happen. Looks to be too much of a fast moving system to put down more than several inches.
Hey, don’t be negative. This will be a perfect opportunity for you to make some money shoveling driveways and sidewalks. Your parents probably won’t pay much but try next door. Adults love it when kids come knocking looking for work. Good luck lil buddy.
Ok, guys…my earlier moderation post is finally up. Scroll up to 2:07 and you will see my post. It’s very informative and may grab the attention of the ones saying we are getting nothing more than a couple inches out of this storm. Enjoy
i love it …. boy you say one thing anti snow and people go ape; People – everyone is entitled to his/her opinions, no need to bash them over it. I hope your right bunny, talk about shutting people up.
amen to that … i love snow and enjoy blogging about it, but some people ruin it when they bash people’s opinion … the title of this is weather blog, not snow blog … the last time i checked spring/warm weather was part of the weather also. Lighten up people
So everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but then you want to shut them up? Bring on the snow!
Who is shutting up???? Bunnys are much easier to track when there is snow on the ground. By the way..We have another snow system moving in next week…THINK SNOW…Spring will be here soon enough.
BIV, Based on the track and the sustained cold air needed to yield 7″ of snow, that would suggest even Richmond KY would get the snow luv too.
Hmmmmm.
All i did was give the definition of a snowbird lol. Humor was the tone of my post. I can’t speak for the others. =-)
Winter Storm Watch issued for Louisville.
BubbaG, I really do hope you guys get more than 4″ your way. It’s long overdue. I feel for ya, as I’m as huge a snowlover as they come and would love for EVERYONE to get in on the fun! Let’s hope RED BARON’s CAPz 5 model, doesn’t deviate much and maybe the GFS and others align with his, as he suggested may happen by this time tomorrow!
18z NAM still holding its own still spitting out about the same as its been for the last several runs…
Yeah, In my 6 years in Richmond the grass hass never been hidden from site. As a kids living here in the 70 and 80s we would often goe weeks without seeing the grass at all….
Ending his post with “eat it” yeah that’s really sharing an opinion, well, if your 10 years old maybe. He gives his opinion and gets several thrown right back at him. No biggie to me, it’s gonna snow whether he wants it or not. HAHAHA
GOOD LUCK WITH THAT! The last time I tried to go up there with less than 2 inches of snow on the ground, traffic was stretched in a line as far as from here to Ethiopia, and more wrecked cars there than in the world’s biggest junkyard.
I-275 will close if there’s any ice on it at all, so you’d better go before any snow starts falling, or you might not even make it.
WInter Storm Watches posted for most of NORTHERN KY…from Lou. to Georgetown and north of that…hmmmm… and if you happen to miss out on this storm…another one is coming MONDAY, and then the following THURS-SAT..and on and on and on…the pattern is LOADED!!!!
That is what I was saying on my video blog, they are lined up one after the other well into Feb. I’ve never seen a pattern like this before.
I guess the LEX area is gonna be left out of the WSW love by the NWS – I’ll take Chris’ map instead!
I guess the LEX area is gonna be left out of the WSW love by the NWS – I’ll take Chris’ map instead!
NOAA says 1-3 for areas outside the watch. “The warm air will nose in.” This happens…every…single….time.
Trying to hold on to hope for more than a mere dusting, somebody may have to hold on to me…I’m fainting again. lol
Frankfort too, we seem to always be on the fence.
Chris can you or someone please tell me what is wrong with Jackson nws we have had one winter storm watch all winter we have had three or four snows here I’m Morgan co this winter with four or more inches of snow this winter and still no winter storm watch for this storm either what is wrong with these people does a winter storm watch scare them?
Brrrrrrr…,some of these models are showing some very cold temperatures this coming weekend..Love the snow but hate 0 degree temps..
Hang on, my furry little Eastern Ky. Friends! From the Jackson NWS 4pm discussion:
AS WELL DEVELOPED AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE DEVELOPS
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE JET STREAK. NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH FROM AROUND DAWN
FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE LATEST MODEL
SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS ALSO INDICATE THAT BEST TIME
FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW TO BE BETWEEN 0 AND 12Z FRIDAY…AS THE NEXT
LIFT AND DEEPEST MOISTURE IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE WILL BE
OCCURRING DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THREE TO FOUR INCHES OF SNOW ARE
EXPECTED BETWEEN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON…OR OVER
ABOUT A 30 HOUR PERIOD.
Do not fret or whine….Fill up the tank and make some wine!
For watches or warnings the criteria must be met. Just because it snows does not always warrant such.
Anyone know why the Winter Storm Watch includes Perry, Crawford, Harrison, and Floyd Counties in Indiana and Jefferson County in Kentucky but then suddenly jumps up past Franklin and Shelby County? It follows 64 all the way through Louisville but then stops at Shelby County.
And then there is this!…….
THE MOST RECENT RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE NOW TRYING TO
PRODUCE A LARGE AND RAPIDLY DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY MORNING. THIS LOW EVENTUALLY MAKES ITS WAY
INTO THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A
SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS IN THE EASTERN GULF…AND WORKS
ITS WAY UP THE EAST COAST MY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. IF THE CURRENT
MODELS VERIFY WITH THIS STORM…ANOTHER ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW
COULD BE IN STORE TO BEGIN THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. WITH THIS
SCENARIO BEING 7 DAYS IN THE FUTURE…WILL NOT PUT TOO MUCH
CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM. JUST WANTED TO
MENTION IT FOR THE BENEFIT OF UPCOMING SHIFTS TO LOOK AT AND KEEP AN
EYE ON.
Excuse me but this is WINTER. The snow lovers time of the year. So go hibernate until spring when all of us will be ready for it. ITS JANUARY PEOPLE.
The only reason you come on here with the same posts over and over is to rile people up, so don’t get mad when you actually do.
Warm air intrusion and track of system.
LIke I said the pattern is LOADED!!! one hit after another on the way..:)B)
Some of it could be timing, with the watch coming further east with the overnight/tomorrow morning forecast. Those areas will be hit 2-4 hours sooner than 127 and east.
I saw that today!! AWESOME!!
LMAO– I cant say it…. yes I HAVE TO…no, it wouldn’t be right….but it would feel so good…..
OK…cant.
stop.
myself.
Hey easter bunny….
EAT IT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
(i feel so much better)
🙂
I’d like to see that the day of the storm instead of 7 days out. 🙂
im seriouly bumfuzzled, i mean u think by all the excitment on here a BREAD AND NILK storm a coming.lol
farrrrr north ky might see 5 inches, scott county south be lucky to see 2.
you’ve missed on every storm so far so I will take that as a good sign for everyone getting some snow love.
E…you need to lay off the high caffeine…LOL…LOL…
Chris,
I hope you have to up southeastern Ky totals a little bit 2-4 is a decent, but I was hoping for 6 or more out of this one. Are we going to get very much tonight or just a cold rain. Will we have any accumulations tonight into WED? I was just wondering. Does anyone think their is a good chance of 1 inch or just a dusting?
Chris,
I hope you have to up southeastern Ky totals a little bit 2-4 is a decent, but I was hoping for 6 or more out of this one. Are we going to get very much tonight or just a cold rain. Will we have any accumulations tonight into WED? I was just wondering. Does anyone think their is a good chance of 1 inch or just a dusting?
Ping ping ping— ricochet wabbit!
LMAO 😉
I still put money that Bell Co will get around 8″ of snow.
With all the teachers around the blog, I wanted to remind/let you know that Paoli has teachers ski free this Friday. So if it does happen that we are out of school… Paoli it is!!
I agree more north, less south, but I think you’re under-doing the totals some. I’ll go with 5-6″ north, 3-4″ south. (optimistic.)
Not a bread & milk event, in any case.
Funny how MOST people has missed our snows this winter. 1″ turns into 4″ and 2″ turns into 6″… We always GET ALOT more than expected here this winter.
Knowing that area, they prob will 🙂
Let it snow..Let it snow..Let it snow!!!Hopefully Bath County will get a lot of snow this round! We usually get 2-3 maybe 4 inches at my house, I’m ready for a foot! <3 snow!
ok..im confused…whats the deal with the bunny..?!?!?
couldnt agree more with space wrangler, rolo u r wrong on every storm until you change your forcast 3 hours before the storm hits. and you are always debbie downer when se ky isnt projected to get much. let the rest of the ppl on here enjoy a nice 3-6 inch snow. not everyone on here lives in se ky and has gotten a lot of snow already.
See post 257 and 317..
Us here in Bell Co have had a awesome winter thus far. 33″ and counting.
im just glad to see that it will snow, the rain is depressing!
Go back and look at the models for this one seven days ago!!!! Kentucky will see below normal temps thru the first part of Feb. and longer. Will contiue to see waves of precip from the west..
I see ole FLIP-FLOPPER is at it again. Give it up Rolo. You’ve been wrong the entire winter. Your flip-flopping is OLD. I guess we’ll hear from you again a couple of hours before the storm hits.
WYMT just said no rain and atleast 4″ for everybody. Expect more near the VA border.