Good Tuesday everyone. The main focus on the blog will be the WINTER STORM THREAT for Thursday and Friday. We upgraded to threat mode last evening after seeing enough data to suggest this storm has the potential to bring 4″ or more of snow to the region. If we get more confidence in this storm putting down that much snow… we will upgrade to Alert status.
Here is the situation for the end of the week…
– A strong piece of energy will be shooting northeast out of the southwestern part of the country late Wednesday into Thursday.
– This happens as more energy dives into the midwest from Canada and has a serious push of arctic air behind it.
– These two pieces will try to merge… or phase… across the Ohio Valley by late Thursday. This should create low pressure riding northeastward from Tennessee into Virginia then up the east coast. Just how strong this low is will depend on how much… and where… the two systems decide to hook up.
– A track like the one mentioned above is usually a good one to lay down a swath of significant (4″+) snow across our region.
– There are still many questions to be answered… but the main one is… How strong will this low be? The stronger it is… the more snow it will spit out around here. A stronger low may also pull up a touch of warmer air to create a brief mix with rain at the start… especially south. That would cut into snow totals where this happens. The weaker the low… it’s all snow with lighter totals.
Figuring out the intensity of the low is going to be the focus of the next few days. The models are in better agreement now than before… but they still have some differences. I am discounting the European Model right now as it continues to be the only model leaving a big chunk of energy hanging back across the southwest. That said… it still puts down a 2″-4″ snow. Who knows… it could always be the lone correct model! 
The GFS continues to trend toward developing a slightly bigger storm…
The GFS Ensembles continue to be pretty consistent…
The model runs from the GFS family show a moderate event with a swath of 4″+ snows across our region
On the other end of the spectrum continues to be the Canadian Model. This has been showing a bigger storm than any other model of late and that continues to be the case…
The Canadian model did get a little help from the overnight run of the NAM model. This went straight toward a very wound up storm that brought the low all the way into extreme southeastern Kentucky before quickly developing eastward into Virginia. A word of caution about the NAM… it loves to overdue warm air advection in cases like this. Still… it’s a decent match to the above map…
I want to stress I don’t think this is going to become a major snowstorm around here. I do think it has the potential to be a moderate storm that can deliver 4″ or more of snow. I will get more specific with the areas that have the greatest threat for that happening with updates later today.
After the storm goes by… a nice shot of arctic air works in for Friday and temps may struggle to get out of the teens. From there… the pattern remains loaded with snow chances into next week.
In the short term… showers will be rather common across the area today as a weak low pressure rolls through. Colder air will work in tonight with a switch to some light snow by Wednesday morning. Here is your rain tracking radar…
I will have more updates later today so check back. Have a great Tuesday and take care.
Select Page
oh joy it appears as though im first, but who knows. Perhaps the comments simply arent showing up. Lol
The nam6z is still committed to the early phasing.
Good morning everyone, and thanks Chris.
Wow, here it comes folks. Get the hot chocolate ready. 🙂
we are near 48 hours out before the storm and the models are still in disagreement about the phasing.
Should be very interesting to see what the noon models do today. That would be getting dangerously close to the 48 hour mark…
hey Bubba, when he says ‘4 inches to the region’ that means everyone but you! just sayin’
CHris says he wants to stress this won’t become a major storm. Hopefully he’s going to do a Brian Collins impression and call for a dusting. One can hope. 🙂
nobody else is saying anything about this storm …. weather.com and accuweather are mentioning some snow but no accumulations and no mention of artic temps …. they must be wrapped up in their spiderman comic books instead of the weather!!!
now weather.com is giving all rain, no mention of snow whatsoever, somebody is going to look foolish come Friday morning!!!
oh man…. losing hope for this one. 🙁
Always that chance, but I see the chance of a major event slipping away. Still, it should be shovel-worthy.
Best case is 3-5″ in the north and 3-4″ in the east. Expect to see a 1″ to 4″ map from CB.
This is NOT a big snow, so not a debate on that anyway. Never really was, as mentioned a few times already.
Another couple incher’ to add to the books. My Chihuahua Flowey laughs and is not intimidated by this event.
Ruff!
I have come to the conclusion that weather.com is good only for finding out what the weather is at this very exact moment — and sometimes it’s not even accurate for that.
Hey E-townKY…why losing hope? Heaviest snow expected near Ohio River. I’ll gladly take 4″
Dynamic Cooling like we’ve never seen before was what resulted in the ’98 storm turning into a monster. This storm is moving west to east, and quickly at that, so I don’t think there’ll be a chance at missing the forecast this time. I’d like to be wrong and wake up to 46″ of snow, but it’s probably a 4″ snow at best.
im hearing 2-4 for the louisville area. i dont know how to read the weather maps. just curious why ppl are loosing hope already?
Bubba says…nothing to see here folks,,move along…move along…lol…lol…
Im sticking with the NAM and Canadian. 3-6″ sounds like a good bet right now
bubba and I told u there nothing to see,
yea inch or 2 weeeeeeeeeeee, that sucs.
only question i have is WINTER STORM THREAT means big storm i thought, but at end of post BAILEY sas i dont think its going to be a BIG SNOWSTORM around here.
so im confused.lol
I really hope you are wrong, but you are never wrong.
Does anyone have a handle on the rain to snow switchover timeline this evening for the Richmond area? Thanks.
2 – 4? NO! Where did you hear that? Sad if it is true after all the anticipation…
4″+ snowstorm is classified as SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL in KY… Thats the Criteria from NWS
With ya on that–WSTHREAT–but not a big snowstorm???? I really don’t think a 4in snow is a WSThreat..just my opinion
Oh my goodness, I just found this forum and have been reading it the past few days…Very interesting for sure.
But, the one thing I don’t quite get is why all of the disappointment over a 2-4″ snowfall??!!…It’s snow…It more than covers the ground…Creates a nice winter atmosphere, but not too horribly disrupting after a bit…Probably gives most systems a snow day…What am I missing here??
And I am definitely a fall/winter person…Love snow, etc…(A month of summer and hot weather would do me just fine)…So I’m on your side!! LOL
…if you need to ask…. 🙂
No…..you LIKE snow.
You have to want at LEAST 8 inches to be a tried and true snow LOVER. 😉 And that is on the conservative side.
We want big snowmen, nice sledding hills, snow forts, rows of snowballs etc etc.
You just wouldn’t understand….. 🙂
Jules, I agree. I’ll happily take 2-4″. Many of the “hard core” snow fans here, however, want a heavy 10″+ snow. 🙂
Oh I’ve enjoyed, ( sort of) all of the big snows we’ve had over the past 40yrs.
But, perhaps you’re right, my snow disappointments come when I’m expecting a snow cover and can still see some grass peeking out from underneath when it’s over…That’s sort of a buzz-kill!! 🙂
4″ is for north and east and would qualify then for “region” 😉
10% chance this impacts all of KY with 2″, yet alone 4″.
Everything is relative. As CB stated, 4″ or above rates a winter storm level for his outlooks.
Very doubtful the whole state would see 4″ and if the “region” does get 4″, we all know who will get it.
Hey, at least it should not be another ironic snow sandwich 🙂
As usual,the pattern continues..The models has ky in the bulls eye for a possible big snow event only to push it aside..AGAIN…AS i said before,when i walk outside and actually see a foot of snow is when i’ll believe it..The models themselves has no idea whats going to happen until 1 day before..In other words they like to tease ya..Im ready to plant some peas..Winter be gone..Enough of this teasing..
All the excitement three days ago, by many, seems to have gone out the door. BubbaG is on to something here. Every model run seems to show the same amout of precip it’s that the freezing line keeps creeping up to the north. Latest NAM has it running up the OH River. Looks like a classic rain to snow or all rain for most of KY.. As I said a few days ago. You can’t get excited about models that are 5 to 10 days out. They always change and generally in the wrong way for the Lou. area…
I wish this blog had a “like” button as Facebook does, I’m with ‘ya Borderline I want to til and plant.
12z run of NAM still looks snowy
I love snow but for some reason am ready for spring……gettin’ over winter since western ky has only gotten two snows that amount to about 4 inches total. Tired of hearing others complaining about only a few inches. Eastern part of state has gotten what……a couple feet….geesh….!
Yes it does, but every run the freezing line moves to the north. It was two days ago when the snow line was in Tenn. Now it runs up the Ohio River. Still waiting on tonights runs to get excited about snow.
What a waste of moisture out there today. If it were only colder…..
12Z NAM is dropping snow totals significantly. Last night it showed 5-7″ and now it’s down to 3-5″. It’s looking more realistic now. This storm is a FAST moving storm so it simply won’t have time to drop big amounts. Also, there was some chatter here last night about it starting as rain. What?? Rain at -5°C on the 850 chart? That’s a bold call.
I dont get it…. The NAM and the Goofus models are not showing anything but like a couple inches at best for the time period of the storm….yet we get a WS threat? And like several have said before, TWC and Accuweather arent on board at all??? Im confused…
Special Weather Statement from the NWS in Louisville.
A WINTER STORM SYSTEM WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST
ON THURSDAY. LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
SOUTHERN INDIANA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION WILL THEN
SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY THROUGH THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY PUSH EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT WITH SNOW EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END BY FRIDAY MORNING.
THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL HAVE A MIXTURE OF PRECIPITATION TYPES AS
WARM AIR WILL NOSE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY. COUNTIES NEAR THE
BORDER WITH TENNESSEE WILL LIKELY SEE PLAIN RAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ON THURSDAY WHILE FURTHER NORTH A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF THE BLUEGRASS
PARKWAY LOOK TO SEE ALL SNOW. AS COLD AIR FILTERS IN LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING A CHANGE OVER TO ALL
SNOW WILL OCCUR.
THOUGH THERE IS STILL SOME SPREAD IN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH
THIS SYSTEM…IT LOOKS ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION
WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA. THE
GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND NORTH
CENTRAL KENTUCKY. THIS SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY AFFECT TRAVEL ACROSS
THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
AS WITH ANY SYSTEM OF THIS TYPE…THE AMOUNT OF WARM AIR PUSHING
IN FROM THE SOUTH WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. BE
SURE TO CHECK BACK FOR THE LATEST DEVELOPMENTS ON THIS SYSTEM.
In order for decent snow activities, one has to have at least 4 inches. Any less than that is just for show.
general 2-4 for northern and western areas appears likely.
Oh mother nature you are such a little tease. Here comes another 2 inch if we’re lucky, snow that I can sweep off porch with a broom. Oh well, maybe one year we’ll get lucky. Dont hold your breath though. Yes I’m disappointed.
Here we go again. Just as the rain washed all the chemicals off the roads, the crews are going to be right back out there putting more of it down. I’m so sick and tired of that nasty crap being all over my vehicle that I could snap. I wish an alien ship would fly down and steal every lb. of road salt and magnesium chloride in the state.
One persons view……….
Expectations areas north and south along Hwy. 127 for Thursday/Thursday night:
1. Except for extreme north a mixture of precip on Thursday. Danville south higher chances of plain rain. Changing to all snow by 7-9pm.
2. Snow accumulations 3″ north with isolated higher amounts.
3. Snow accumulations 2″ or less Cynthiana south to Danville.
4. Snow accumulations 1″ or less south to Tn. border.
Looks like our trend for 1-4 inch snowfalls continues. The last two times Lexington got 30 inches of snow in a season was 1993-1994, and we had at least one good wallop (Jan of 1994). The other one, 1995-1996 had at least two good wallops (one in January, one in March)
If we get anywhere close to 30 inches without a big snow, then I would say that its going to be almost impossible to get a big snow even in the best of winter set-ups.
i couldn’t agree more
Don’t pay attention to the models,there on crack this winter..All you can do is just hope it comes a big snow before winter is over,cause the models sure not gonna tell us..As for another model teaser look at the end of jan. into feb…
What is the best tilt angle for snow reflectivity? Also, is TDWR long range good for snow detection?
This is BG’s 1st call for snow on Wave-3 Lou…I personally, still think 6″ will happen for many on the viewing area. Have to stick to my guns, since I put that out there a couple days ago!
http://blogs.wave3.com/.a/6a00d83452060169e20147e1b53288970b-pi
This looks like a pretty interesting set-up. The big question for me is how much warm air gets wrapped up into the storm?
Hope he’s right. It worries me when Chris goes in silent mode when under the threat mode. Not a good sign from past experience. Heck, I’ve not had a good sign the past 13 years.
I’ve been thinking the same thing myself and figuring he’s giving the models one more chance to get a storm going before the bad new comes….saw the model from the Louisville station but I’m really wondering about EKY or Johnson County in particular….hoping for lots of snow but preparing to be letdown.
I’ve been thinking the same thing myself and figuring he’s giving the models one more chance to get a storm going before the bad new comes….saw the model from the Louisville station but I’m really wondering about EKY or Johnson County in particular….hoping for lots of snow but preparing to be letdown.
No tweets or tidbits.
No tweets or tidbits.
When in doubt, just follow BubbaG’s rule….waa…we will be 33 and rain here, unfortunately 🙁
When in doubt, just follow BubbaG’s rule….waa…we will be 33 and rain here, unfortunately 🙁
So Chris vagely mentions snow for tonight and mainly talks about Thursday. Does that mean any snow we get tonight will be at most flurries and even if we do get in on a moderate snow shower, the temps will keep it from sticking?
in my short time folowing this blog, no news seems to be bad news. I will keep my hopes up anyway. At least until Chris tells me otherwise. Maybe he is preparing the first call and will surpise us with some nice #s.
I guy can dream!
patience patience – the SUN train is warming up, getting ready to pull out of the station …. get your tickets ready, say bye bye to the snowlovers and ALL aboard !!!! 2 tickets to paradise!!!!!!!!!!
Coffeelady, that thread could entitle you to membership in the Darth Bubba society of the Dark Side. 🙂
Shane, why have you been so scarce? You, Tommy and especially Bernie (MIA).
With regards to big snow, that’s all we do here in Central Ky is dream.
I thought you guys might enjoy this reading, as this guy posted on John Belski’s blog all last winter, and nailed about every storm last year with his own model forecasting…Red Baron is a respected guy. To my knowledge, he hasn’t posted on here. So, here you go everyone. Ps- The “Twix” index is like a scale of 1-10 on storm severity. Like Belski’s old “bread” index.
The Red Baron said…
Greetings, it has been a longtime since I last posted. I just returned from my observation post atop Mt. Washington. Dieter Von Braun and I have been working steadfastly on the beta version of the CAPz 6 model, however it is not quite ready to launch. Therefore, I will be updating you with the latest runs of my legacy CAPz 5 model. As you know from last year, the CAPz 5 is a very capable model and consistently and correctly forecasted every major winter storm….48 hrs out. Average deviation of forecasted snowfall to actual snowfall was .2145 inches.
The 12Z run of the CAPz 5 brings phasing to the area beginning late Thursdays into early Friday morning. Liquid precip is .63 inches with average ratios of 12:1. That would bring a little over 7.5 inches of snow. Allthough I don’t necessarily agree with the run, it is hard to throw out the models past performance. Look for the NAM, GFS, and EURO to slowly come into agreement with CAPz 5 in the next 24-36 hrs. Will update if later runs bring any significant change.
Mr. Goode, based on the above, please upgrade to 7 Twix. I assure you, if you don’t do it now, you will be doing it when it is too late for proper preparations to be made.
Give me a break. Its JANUARY.
I thought you guys might enjoy this reading, as this guy posted on John Belski’s blog all last winter, and nailed about every storm last year with his own model forecasting…Red Baron is a respected guy. To my knowledge, he hasn’t posted on here. So, here you go everyone. Ps- The “Twix” index is like a scale of 1-10 on storm severity. Like Belski’s old “bread” index.
The Red Baron said…
Greetings, it has been a longtime since I last posted. I just returned from my observation post atop Mt. Washington. Dieter Von Braun and I have been working steadfastly on the beta version of the CAPz 6 model, however it is not quite ready to launch. Therefore, I will be updating you with the latest runs of my legacy CAPz 5 model. As you know from last year, the CAPz 5 is a very capable model and consistently and correctly forecasted every major winter storm….48 hrs out. Average deviation of forecasted snowfall to actual snowfall was .2145 inches.
The 12Z run of the CAPz 5 brings phasing to the area beginning late Thursdays into early Friday morning. Liquid precip is .63 inches with average ratios of 12:1. That would bring a little over 7.5 inches of snow. Allthough I don’t necessarily agree with the run, it is hard to throw out the models past performance. Look for the NAM, GFS, and EURO to slowly come into agreement with CAPz 5 in the next 24-36 hrs. Will update if later runs bring any significant change.
Mr. Goode, based on the above, please upgrade to 7 Twix. I assure you, if you don’t do it now, you will be doing it when it is too late for proper preparations to be made.
I agree with you there. My hummer always looks like a salt block.
I guess if I can’t have a foot, I will take an inch. Anything is better than nothing.
I guess we will make doll house snowmen. 😉
Oops, that was supposed to be a new post, sorry.
ugh on moderations…
I thought you guys might enjoy this reading, as this guy posted on John Belski’s blog all last winter, and nailed about every storm last year with his own model forecasting…Red Baron is a respected guy. To my knowledge, he hasn’t posted on here. So, here you go everyone. Ps- The “Twix” index is like a scale of 1-10 on storm severity. Like Belski’s old “bread” index.
The Red Baron said…
Greetings, it has been a longtime since I last posted. I just returned from my observation post atop Mt. Washington. Dieter Von Braun and I have been working steadfastly on the beta version of the CAPz 6 model, however it is not quite ready to launch. Therefore, I will be updating you with the latest runs of my legacy CAPz 5 model. As you know from last year, the CAPz 5 is a very capable model and consistently and correctly forecasted every major winter storm….48 hrs out. Average deviation of forecasted snowfall to actual snowfall was .2145 inches.
The 12Z run of the CAPz 5 brings phasing to the area beginning late Thursdays into early Friday morning. Liquid precip is .63 inches with average ratios of 12:1. That would bring a little over 7.5 inches of snow. Allthough I don’t necessarily agree with the run, it is hard to throw out the models past performance. Look for the NAM, GFS, and EURO to slowly come into agreement with CAPz 5 in the next 24-36 hrs. Will update if later runs bring any significant change.
Mr. Goode, based on the above, please upgrade to 7 Twix. I assure you, if you don’t do it now, you will be doing it when it is too late for proper preparations to be made.
Didn’t the latest model runs point the main snow further south which puts it along the Ohio River? Seems to be going in the right direction so why all the frowns in these posts?
Didn’t the latest model runs point the main snow further south which puts it along the Ohio River? Seems to be going in the right direction so why all the frowns in these posts?
FOR WHAT IT IS WORTH…
The Red Baron said…
Greetings, it has been a longtime since I last posted. I just returned from my observation post atop Mt. Washington. Dieter Von Braun and I have been working steadfastly on the beta version of the CAPz 6 model, however it is not quite ready to launch. Therefore, I will be updating you with the latest runs of my legacy CAPz 5 model. As you know from last year, the CAPz 5 is a very capable model and consistently and correctly forecasted every major winter storm….48 hrs out. Average deviation of forecasted snowfall to actual snowfall was .2145 inches.
The 12Z run of the CAPz 5 brings phasing to the area beginning late Thursdays into early Friday morning. Liquid precip is .63 inches with average ratios of 12:1. That would bring a little over 7.5 inches of snow. Allthough I don’t necessarily agree with the run, it is hard to throw out the models past performance. Look for the NAM, GFS, and EURO to slowly come into agreement with CAPz 5 in the next 24-36 hrs. Will update if later runs bring any significant change.
Mr. Goode, based on the above, please upgrade to 7 Twix. I assure you, if you don’t do it now, you will be doing it when it is too late for proper preparations to be made.
Careful Coffee!
The Dark Side feeds on anger for snow!
Dath Bubba is a force to be feared! Perhaps “pitied” is more accurate.
guess if I can’t have a foot, I will take an inch. Anything is better than nothing.
I guess we will make doll house snowmen. 🙁
C’mon Chris– give us the bad news already. We can take it. Putting off the inevitable…
Man, I think I need to get more sleep, my optimism is still in the bed somewhere….
I’m still around Darth Bubba, just don’t always have time to contribute.
After looking at the 12z GEM and GFS and NAM… I’m thinking this looking like a solid 2-4″ snow for most of the state with isolated higher amounts. Best chance of those higher amounts will likely fall between I-64 and the Cumberland Parkway if the NAM is correct.
Unless we get another sustained cold spell, we will be back in drive-by mode for snows and the 33/32 degree rule will cut out big snow chances.
What ever big snow likes- we aint’ got it.
more than likely….
Seems about right.
These drive-by snows got old a few systems ago.
I’m liking the look of the new GFS snowfall map. I thought the GFS was the one giving us a smaller amount?? Now, the NAM is giving us less and GFS more?? flipper floppers…
http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=LVX
This winter is incredibly colder than previous years. I worry for those who are homeless 🙁
Interesting blog. Actually google made searching of information easy on any topic. Well keep it up and post more interesting blogs.
Hi, I found your post really helpful. It helped me all the way in completing my assignment, I am also giving a referance link of your blog in my case study. Thanks for posting such informative content. Keep posting.
I’ve wanted to publicate something like this text on my web-blog and you gave me excellent idea. Thanks!