Good Monday afternoon everyone. I have decided to upgrade to WINTER STORM THREAT mode for the end of the week for the potential for 4″ or more of snow across our region. THREAT status on the blog means there is an increased potential for a winter storm to impact the state. If we go to Alert Status… that means take it to the bank. 
The trend on the models today is one toward a partial phase of the northern and southern branches of the jet stream. This would cause low pressure to develop and work out of the southern plains into the Tennessee Valley then up the east coast from Thursday into Friday. This would put much of the state in a favorable setup for 4″ or more of snow.
Let’s take a look at some of the latest models.
The NAM only goes out through 84 hours, but shows a quick hitting winter storm for most of the state…
This matches what the GFS Ensembles have been showing for several runs now…
The GFS is also trending toward a slightly bigger system…
All of the above models would indicate a moderate snowfall of greater than 4″ for much of the region. The Canadian Model continues to show the big daddy storm as it has a full phase of the jet streams…
So far… it is the only model showing such a storm.
Arctic air would then spill in behind the snows on Friday as highs may struggle to get out of the teens with wind chills at or below zero. There could be another snow making clipper moving in over the weekend.
So there you have it… A WINTER STORM THREAT for Thursday and Friday for the potential for 4″ or more of snow.
I will update again this evening if needed. Take care.
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Interesting; anyone seen the 18Z GFS? The end of the period looks crazy cold
If it is going to snow, make it a good one.
Great news from the nam. Cautiously optimistic.
BRING IT ON!!!! For the season I am at 33″….. Seems like Southeast KY has been the bullseye for most and looks to be again for this one as well. I fully expect 8-10″ for my neck of the woods. That would make 3 systems over 8″ this winter for me.
I lived in Spencer County in 2004. We got about 6″ of snow and a lot of ice. In parts of Southern Indiana they got 2 to 3 feet of snow. I remember Nelson County got hammered with a couple inches of ice.
Should we be afraid?
Very. Be very afraid.
AHHHHH S-N-O-W snow snow snow. AHHHHHH S-N-O-W snow snow snow!!!!
Woohoo! Things are progressing nicely! 😉
Now lets keep hope alive for the ALERT!
Praying praying praying we get a big “play-worthy” snow for the kiddos (me included) and that those who hate it are lovingly protected in the midst of it! 🙂
We had ice from Wed, Dec 22 thru (I THINK??!) Fri. the 24th-it quit that morning, then we had a little period of snow. Lights went out around 6pm Wed and my Mom & hubby went to look for candles while I stayed home w/ the dogs-theycame home empty-handed because neither wanted to pay like $10/candle @ ‘Kroger”,as that was the only place still open by then..lol! We watched DVD’s on TV since the cable line was down (ironically, the main line for that and electric is in our backyard..lol~) the elec. was back on by Fri midday-I said Christmas day…my mistake)We had to go to L-Ville that afternoon to get my mom’s paycheck-her dumb boss left the checks @ work to be picked up Thur..duhhh..and we dug thru 11″ of snow to unlock the gate to the plant, then had to use a lighter to thaw out the lock to the office….unreal!
What?? No downers talking about how their models show sun and 50 degrees Weds. thru Sunday? What up? 🙂
Anxiously awaiting 00Z runs. I’m going for 3-5″ on my blog right now…trending toward the GFS. NAM seems to be overdoing precip. lately. I think Chris is going to be busy this week. 🙂
I think the downers are reloading. Can’t say I blame them. Since the 1998 23″ Central KY dusting, I’ve gone through two massive ice storms and more nasty cold than I want to remember. Time for old man winter to S*&! or get off the pot.
I’m ready for baseball season.
I personally don’t want to relive that ’04 storm. We got so much ice…we lost power for days, a tree crashed into our house knocking down the weather head. It was a nightmare!!! It was definitely a Christmas to remember! I will take the snow…but please…NO ICE!!! I want a good ’77/’78 snow storm…if I’m wishing…I want to wish big!!!
We got almost 2 feet here in Shelbyville in ’94, which happened 17 years ago today.
NAM is coming out now. Will be a bit before the storm time frame comes out. Looking forward to see what it shows. Hopefully it’s as good as the 18z.
The Canadian is going to be spot on and the Pack will beat the voice of reason’s precious bears. You can take it to the bank.
I’m going with the Canadian Model..The big Daddy of them all..Latched on the storm early and the rest is favoring a Canadian solution..lol
I’m holding my breath until the 00z model runs come in!! lol
Here’s the 0z nam. Still has a snow storm.Waiting on the gfs now. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/images/nam_pcp_078m.gif
What a great *&%#@ Run. Central & No. ky especially. It looks like its the nam & can vs the gfs & euro.
CB gonna love the 00z NAM… WOW
CB’S tweet a minute ago says new nam run shows a major storm.
I must caution everyone, the NAM has a history of over doing the precip shield…
Regardless, looks like we will get a snow storm late week…
still a 3 hour period of rain to start on the nam. Looking at this aspect of the storm dynamical cooling may allow for a fairly quick changeover.
Hopefully the gfs and euro will trend toward the nam and can.
If we were to take the NAM serious right now it would be good. here’s the total precipitation out to 84hrs (friday morning). http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/images/nam_p60_084l.gif
GFS runs in 25min.
How much snow does that equate to? Sorry but i don’t know how to read the map.
thanks for the link!!
Looks promising.
So what are we looking at for best/worst case scenario for us snow lovers? What is the time frame for this storm?
andWell, hope is alive on the 00Z NAM. Storm begins to phase a little earlier and would allow for a period of moderate to even heavy snow thursday night/early Friday. Widespread QPF (liquid amounts) to around a half inch which would imply a solid 4″ snow for most of the region. It is still 3 days out, but tomorrow should be quite interesting.
y at wave 3 posted
Taking a 10;1 ratio. it would probably be 6+ but the problem is the 3hrs of precip to start as rain. and then switch. but i would say it would be ice to start with. who knows? lo.
The weather in H3LL must have just turned wintry! AW is actually saying it might snow! I’ll have to consult the almanac to see when this last happened!
Rain? Really?