Good afternoon everyone. I wanted to drop in for a very quick update to show you a couple of new models on the late week storm potential.
The new run of the NAM only goes through Thursday evening and is looking rather threatening for a big snow around here…
Thursday Evening
Simulated NAM Radar
That is very close to what last night’s run of the Canadian was showing.
The GFS continues to show a widespread 2″-4″ snowfall from this system…
Thursday Evening
Thursday Night
The upper air pattern on the GFS is getting closer to a phased solution.
I will have more updates on the rest of the new models later today so check back. Take care.
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Thanks for your blog CB. The weather source for KY. That said…..please let it SNOW!!!!
Continues to look very interesting; thanks for the update; any guess how much snow we would get with the NAM solution?
Thanks for the update Chris!!… Well will it be a case of Pull the trigger or put the gun back in the holster??!!?..
…….
cloudy
41*
light drizzle/fog..
Thanks, Chris. Looking forward to you r next post after you have seen the models. Sounds like it is going to get interesting somewhere!
New Canadian model looks exactly the same as it did last night and is a fairly big hit for us. Chances for an upgrade are increasing.
Ok Chris…..s#&$ or get off the pot lol……Full blown threat mode would be pretty sweet if I do say so myself….here’s hoping for the “big one”. Sooooo excited and thanks for the update 🙂
I enjoy how each potential snow unfolds. Its like a mini-series….keeps ya hangin on until the next episode.
educate me! Can someone give me a quick explanation of what phasing is?
we’ll see chris, another concern i have is WAA for the southeast thursday afternoon could see a period of rain cut into a small window for accumulating snows.
Just would be nice if more of them ended as we would like 😉
Well folks about two weeks ago we mentioned the SUN train. Just wanted to drop in and say we are two weeks closer to the arrival of the sun train and outside temps. For all you winter lovers I hope this system works out for you. But for us spring and summer lovers hang in there, not much longer now.
AKA: The Kentucky 33/32 weather law. Seeing this for central KY as well and a cut-off of Georgetown on up for perhaps better results.
Folks should not get excited unless more than north KY is in on the snow luv.
Given the air that should be in place, it would be NUTS if we saw another snow sandwich. South of us should be rain and mix too. Mountain areas not included of course. Big mountains in Tenessee 😉
Let’s all say it!!! ooooooo P-H-A-S-E phase phase phase!!!!
12z CMC
http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html
Bubba…what are you talking about us in NKY have had no snow luv this year…lol…;)
Ok..goodbye…we’ll see you in MAY!!..:)…lol..
Can we say consistent?
i can hear the whistle blowing, coming to pick me up, chewww chewwww all aboard the SUN train …. all you snow lovers … check ya later !!!!!
LOL. You beat me to it. 😉
If you were Pinocchio any person sitting in front of you now, would be impaled by your nose 😉
Wow.
thats one WRAPPED UP BUNDLE OF JOY!!!. which would be a wet snowstorm for se.ky..
The animation in that link looks like 80% rain, followed bu 20% snow in the north and east half of the state.
DA BubbaG…CB doesn’t update this much unless he has a “good feeling”.
I hope you get some snow soon, I know how it feels.
Please let there be SNOW…..
Where is your location? Because when I look at that, it looks like a good snow for most of the state.
Don’t y’all just love all the negativity some of these people throw around on here on a consistent basis?! I have just learned to skip right over some of those typical people. They always have the same thing to say…;)
Looking forward to the evening model runs to see if they are on track with the midday ones!
Thanks for all you do Chris! Sometimes a lot of us forget this isn’t your day job 🙂
CVG was threatening to break the all-time record for snowfall in the month of December until the Christmas system went bust and produced only 2 inches.
Of course your point is noted. The biggest snow in December at CVG was only 4.1 inches on the 16th. That is not going to cut it for most.
BubbaG: you have to watch the entire thing load up. The rain part is the first storm pushing through today-tomorrow night. Later, the new system (hopefully, phased), comes our way Thursday and it shows a big swath of moderate to heavy snow headed our way, including your area!! I’m telling you, it’s not going to be a rain event, friend.
All that green is for Tuesday/Wednesday. Look at the whole 5 day loop, at about the 70 hour forecast– and the big patch of dark blue moving across. 🙂
Am I correct?
Don’t like the look of the freeze line for thrusday..Looks like it is running between ky..I could be reading it wrong,these models will make your eyes blurr..Unless chris sees something for cooler air, i dont see how we will get much snow..But again im a noob when it comes to this stuff..Again im a noob and hope i wrong,maybe someone can explain the freeze line for us and what the models are saying for the temp. on thrusday..
Good luck with that coming to fruition there Tom. Winter is far from over in 2 weeks time. We may get a couple days of moderation. But, there is plenty of winter left 😉
30mm on this chart (which is widespread on this model) equals 1.18inches of QPF…at just a 10:1 ration, that would be nearly 12″. I’ve been calling for the POTENTIAL of 6-12″ if phasing occurs. However, I would LOVE to be on the conservative side, lol. Anyway, hope that helps!
You are exactly right! I posted the same thing you wrote. However, it got moderated. Bubba, you are not being patient, lol…let the entire loop work through. It takes a minute or so.
looks great!! Hope it stays that way!
We are quite snow deprived here in Richmond. It’s sad.
The freezing line is the line that says 0.
Does anyone know where I can get Lexington’s minimum winter temps with the months that they happened? I did have it from 1949-present day, however my computer died and I lost all data and have no clue where I got the information. It can be from 1949 on or it can be from any earlier. Thanks. You can respond on here or go to my blog and send it to me.
Forgot to say, Thank You!
I thought north KY got well over 6″ in one of the events?
If not, the Big Snow D*** has spread out it’s evil domain! Yikes! 😉
I let it run for ten seconds….. See! The dumb CAN be dumber.
Bunnys don’t like the snow. Easier to hunt them!!! Winter is only half over and then mister ground hog will come out and provide us with another six weeks…Spring will be here soon, but let it snow until then…
New NWS Discussion from Jackson KY is out
THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY THAN IN
PREVIOUS RUNS OVER THE PAST WEEK OR SO. FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY…BOTH MODELS HAVE VERY SIMILAR SYNOPTIC PATTERNS. FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON…AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS…AND ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY BY FRIDAY EVENING. THE GFS IS A FEW HOURS SLOWER WITH THE
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS LOW THAN THE ECMWF MODEL. THE SLOWER GFS
SOLUTION USUALLY IS CLOSER TO REALITY FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY…SO THE
FORECAST WAS ADJUSTED TOWARD THE SLOWER GFS. WITH GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT…FINALLY…DECIDED TO INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ACROSS THE BOARD FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FOR THE END OF THIS WEEK. THE
BEST POPS WILL BE AROUND 50 PERCENT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY…ALONG
AND BEHIND AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED TROUGH.
PRECIPITATION ONSET HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TOWARD THE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
TIME FRAME PER THE SLOWER GFS SOLUTION. THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW
LOOKS TO BE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. AT THIS
POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A PRETTY CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL TO END THE WEEK…WITH TWO OR THREE INCHES OF THE WHITE
STUFF POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE MODELS DIVERGE A BIT FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT…AS THE GFS TRIES TO BRING A SMALL DISTURBANCE ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY…WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE ENTIRE AREA DRY FROM
FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW…DECIDED TO KEEP THE
WEEKEND DRY UNTIL MORE MODEL AGREEMENT IS SEEN FOR THAT TIME FRAME.
THE LATEST RUNS OF THE MEXMOS AND HPC GUIDANCE WERE IN VERY POOR
AGREEMENT REGARDING TEMPERATURES FOR DAYS 4-7. WITH THAT IN
MIND…WENT WITH AS REASONABLE OF A BLEND AS POSSIBLE BETWEEN BOTH
SETS OF GUIDANCE…GOING WARMER THAN THE LATEST MEXMOS…AND SLIGHTLY
COLDER THAN THE LATEST HPC GUIDANCE. THESE TEMPERATURE ISSUES COULD
LEAD TO A PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIPITATION THURSDAY EVENING…WITH A
PERIOD OF COLD RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WERE ALSO
ADJUSTED TOWARD THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS…TO BEST DEPICT THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AND TROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
Even the back side has snow late wednesday for some parts of eastern ky..
euro run even warmer in the 40’s thursday afternoon
we got around 7 inched in one system…..been to Perfect North this year?
It should be noted that the 12Z NAM while showing a decent hit, also has temps well above 32F for much of the region on Thursday. May start off as rain and then go to snow, which would cut into the totals. In the end, its all about whether we phase or not…and where…
thats the one i was looking at..Dont see how it could snow so much when temp. will probably be in the upper 30s..
Any updates on the latest model trends?
Nam says Bam. But the wait is on the GFS which will start to come out soon. If the GFS travels toward the NAM then Chris will update
Latest 18Z NAM has a major snowstorm. Man i sure hope this happens. Wow is all can say. Someone check it out and tell me what you think.
Thanks alot Tom. I hope the NAM nails it!
someone post a link to the 18z NAM please??????!!!!! lol
Tim,
You know Im great at predicting mine and your area. I will say 6-9″ for me and you again!!! Not like we havent seen many of those this season already. 😉
Not only are our names the same, but you’re as anxious as I am to see the NAM!!!
Not only are our names the same, but you’re as anxious as I am to see the NAM!!!!!
Usually whatever NWS in Jackson give I always double it and thats what I have got this whole winter. They say 2-3″, I will say 4-6″. 🙂 I still like the 6-9″ which will include upslope snow as well.
well…the 18z NAM says you better have a good snowshovel…and 6-9″ would be conservative for our area…:)
So, I’m wondering…..should I cancel plans to travel for the weekend to Tn for the weekend?
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/18/images/nam_pcp_084m.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/18/images/nam_p24_084m.gif
And just for kicks the 60 hour precip total
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/18/images/nam_p60_084m.gif
Wow, that would be something for sure
I would not do that as of now. I would just monitor the weather and see what the forecast looks like on Wednesday night before I canceled any plans.
folks the nam isa horrible tis far out, 2nd BAILEY not going threat mode cause he knows that the NAM is drunk. he just shows nam so it keep the blog buzzing.
fact is as mitch and few oithers say, going be in mid 30d end week and THERE NOT GOING BE A SNOWSTORM.
maybe a inch or maybbbbe 2 on backside. mostly a rain storm.
Hate to break it too you but you have missed my forecast the last 4 systems. Thanks for the try though. 😉
Awesome…Thanks!!!
i cant believe so many of the blog regulars are excited about the NAM, 48 hours from now it show a RAIN STORM.LOL
One of my sons is going this Saturday and we all are the Saturday after that. We want to go to one of the resorts in West Virginia, but can not get the time off to make it worthwhile 🙁
Around 1″ of precip. WOW, which means ALOT of snow for far extreme southeast KY..
My back shoveling snow does not mind the low snows, but my kids mind a lot. At least until they find out they are doing most of the work if we do get a big snow some time 😉
What 5 day forecast are you looking at? It’s obviously not the same one everyone else is seeing. Temps dropping.
HEY JAKE
Is this the link you’re talking about?
http://www.sercc.com/climateinfo/historical/historical_ky.html
My driveway is sloped, so I park sideways at the top of it and shovel around that area only …. then I have to shovel out what the plows throw over as well. If we actually get a BIG snow I might consider parking across the road at the neighbors and forget about shoveling. haha
The snowstorm naysayers on here have more than a decade of history to back them up. Would be nice to get nailed just to stop the trend & see the comment section go above 1,000. Unfortunately, since the phasing of the jet streams seems so rare around here, I predict another “Kroger Sponsored” 2-4 inch snow “event.”
my thoughts are from looking at data and also using past performces, i dont see nothing in models that say big SNOWSTORM anytime soon, u all know I LUV SNOW but there nothing to get excited about cause the NAM says so.
the NAM as i said 4 days out is worthless.
forcast will be rain thursday mixing as well with faaaart north ky getting a chance at WSW snows.
lexington south rain/mix to snow showers like always on backside.
myself only chance at big snow will be late feb early march.
18z gfs is out and it is no different than the 12z. Have to see what CB says.
Anything happening tonight? Any chance of snow snow?
If it does decide to come a big snow for Thurs/Fri…I’ll be sure to be ready for it by early Thursday evening.
We are due a big one…..
to james, where you from? it looked as if the gfs 18z was i little more moist in the ek. and wva areas. i may be wrong.
Come on Chris give us a small update these people are killing me love ya role but zeez……
nice pic there on the Ravens Toney…
How’d that work out for ya?…
GO STEELERS
For all the doubters….the 18z GFS run is starting to show signs of phasing over Eastern ky. The location isn’t as important right now, as the fact that the GFS continues to get closer to the phasing which is already in place by the JMA,NAM, and Canadian. So, maybe they’re “ALL DRUNK”. 😉
YEA!, what he said..!
Come on Chris give us a small update you people are killing me rolo we love ya sees…..
New GFS shows 1″ of precip for Southeast KY for Friday. Looking awesome for a BIG SNOWSTORM!!
bad call, good game. that is why there is 2 halves to a foot ball game. as good as the ravens played in the first half and as poorly as the steelers played, it was a complete 360 in the 2nd half. i think the steelers will now win the super bowl. i hate to admit it but i think the ravens were the only team to have a chance against them. does not mean i have to root for them though. go jets!!!!!!!!!!!!! good game though, they lost.
I’m just messin’ with ya man… heck, I pick the STEELERS to win it all every year…!
I’ve only been right 6 times…
beats the heck out of the bengals. lol!!!!!!!
You are now my friend…! 🙂
here is a fun map for you guys to salivate over, too. Trying to keep us tied over til CB gives an update. I know ROLO will HATE this map, since it’s a “NAM DRUNK” product, lol
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam/18znamp24_MW084.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/18/images/nam_pcp_084m.gif
HPC:
10% change of at least 4″ of snow
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day3_psnow_gt_04.gif“>http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day3_psnow_gt_04.gif
10% change of at least 8″ of snow
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day3_psnow_gt_04.gif“>http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day3_psnow_gt_04.gif
These numbers are from midnite Wed~Midnite Thursday..
It’s getting close…
Once again I feel like Charlie Brown and Lucy is getting ready to pull the ball out from under my foot.
DE JA VU
Click on 2nd part of each link… Don’t know what the heck i did there.. lol
I would also think a faster moving storm would have a better chance to phase and at the same time cut down on the WAA. we’ll see.
LOL…i know what ya mean…