Good Monday everyone and welcome to a new week that will feature more of the same from Old Man Winter. We have a potential storm lurking for the end of the week that should deliver snow to our region once again. The big question is… how much? That is something we should have a better idea on later today into Tuesday. Whether it’s a few inches or several inches… it’s more of the same with a lot of blog updates coming your way this week. 
Before we get to the end of the week action… we have a taste of wintry weather to go through over the next few days. Low pressure is dropping southeastward into the Great Lakes later Today… this will slowly drag a front toward the region into Tuesday. A few showers will increase out there today… especially into the west. These showers would then increase tonight into Tuesday. Tuesday will find a big storm developing along the east coast and rolling northward. The front moving in from the west develops a weak wave of low pressure along it by Tuesday afternoon and evening. Much colder air will wrap in behind this system as it moves across Ohio and should change our rain over to a period of light snow from west to east. This can put down some light accumulations.
The GFS Ensembles seem to be handling this situation well…
Temps today will warm into the mid and upper 30s in the north to the 40s across the south. Temps Tuesday will be near 40 before the cold air crashes in late in the day.
This brings us to the potential winter storm across the eastern half of the country from Thursday into the start of the coming weekend. A major push of arctic air will be diving southward out of Canada late Wednesday into Thursday. This happens as a significant disturbance pulls northeastward out of the desert southwest spawning low pressure ahead of it. The possibility for the northern branch of the jet stream to phase with the energy moving in from the southwest is a possibility. If that happens… look out. That would crank up a major snowstorm from the the midwest through the Ohio Valley into then into the mid atlantic states and northeast.Again… IF.
That is only one possibility as of now and it’s a long way from being set in stone. The Canadian Model is going crazy with the phase and ensuing storm…
That is the most extreme of the models right now… but the GFS Ensembles mean is certainly hinting that the Canadian may be sniffing something out…
The operation run of the GFS continues to go back and forth with how to handle the two branches of the jet. The latest run of the model says we do not get these streams to phase and we are then left with a nice little 2″-4″ snowfall instead…
While this is not the best pattern for the GFS… what it is showing above is a possibility I outlined a few days ago. In the camp of the “non phased” GFS is the latest run of the European model, which shows a similar snowfall of 2″-4″ for our region late Thursday into Friday. It wouldn’t take much correction on either model for them to show something similar to the Canadian.
I am still not comfortable in an upgrade and will stay the course until we can be fully determine if the storm will phase or not. Either way… another round of accumulating snow is likely heading our way later this week.
I will have updates through the day so keep checking back. Have a great Monday and take care.
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Thanks Chris! Everyone get ready! 🙂
Here it comes again.
Funny I was just leaving a post and CB Johnny of the Spot comes out with a new post/thread! Cracker Jack!
Looks to me that there is a river of moisture out in the pacific and with cold air in place or artic outbreaks that means we are open for business over the next week to 10 days. Combined win any gulf moisture and that will mean really big snow in he East and Northeast US especially. I just hope we get into that action in a big way.
Okay the Cami Secret commercials (female version of the infamous dickies/fake turtlenecks) are starting to show up so I guess it is time to try to sleep again!
Keep yer fingers crossed because in my opinion it is only a matter of time before we get hit. As amazing as it seems winter is only a little over halfway over and we are just now heading into our most active period historically speaking for Central KY in terms of winter. That is my perspective for what it is worth…..
W.W.
Wow, it’s quite out there with both extremes. like you said though it doesn’t take much correction for the Euro and the GFS to cooperate with the Canadian Model. I would love to see some phasing from the northern part of the jet stream. as I am sure others would too. I am so excited to know that winter’s worst could very well be upon us in 4 days. It’s even greater to know that the possibility of the pattern to hold on into parts of February. I can sense something big happening before it’s all said and done.
Urgh….I hate moderation! That is like purgatory or getting put in time out!! It always happens right after I write up some long post on my handheld!
I am seeing Cami Secret (female version of the dickie) commercials starting to show up on TV so time to crash but It does appear there is a river of moisture out in the pacific and with cold air in place and arctic blasts it is only a matter of time till we get hit over the next 10 days to two weeks. Add in any gulf moisture and really big snows for the eastern seaboard and NE. Winter is just over halfway over as unbelievable as that might seem so I for one like our chances too!
W.W.
I sure how we get more then 2 to 4 inches, personally I would love to see like 10 plus inches.before people say I must not have kids , I actually have 5 and I love snow so we can go sledding and build snowmen, my 4yr old is just really understanding snow and how fun it can be.. keep it up Chris, I watch u more than the news 🙂
Until all the major models are on board I will have reservations about this upcoming event.
PRAY FOR PHASING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
JACK and DIANA today song.
hey BAILEY no need to update sometimes friend, u rest. but when things get exciting or u see something fire away.
just want also to say a SHOUT OUT TO Chris THE LEGEND Bailey wife, she must be great woman. looks like she understand the love of weather her husband has, so from here on curry branch in manchester ROLO says ty MRS BAILEY for letting ur husband be our weather dude.
hry bloggers need help, how much would a brand new DYNA -GLO KERESENE HEATER COST? tx
I’ll plan for 1 to 2″ and if we get more great. CKY is soooooo over due for an 8 to 12″ snow it’s ridickerous.
I’m with you; I would love for my kids to see a storm that leaves everything white – no grass to be seen. EVERY snow we have had since we have lived in KY has been 5 inches or less.
Yes, PHASING! Such a beautiful word….
Pray for sunny days, pray for warm weather, I am sick of snow, sick of high electric bills, i love the spring, i love the sun, makes a person feel good!!!!!
Geez CKY is soooooo due for a good 8 to 12″ snow. I’ll go on and expect the typical 1 to 3″er and anything beyond will be a surprise.
Folks, there is nothing in the outlook this week that suggests big snow. Our Kentucky 33/32 degree rule falls into play for the first half and the final as well. Cold rain, mix and snow on the tail-end. The discussion is 1″ up to 5″ (at best) mainy for some north and east folks.
Unless we get another sustained cold spell, we are back to our typical 33/32 degree rut (mainly cold rain, followed by tail end snow).
ROLO…Can’t one of your dudes get one for you. They found you a nice generator and at real good price…LOL..
I agree with the shout out to Mrs. Bailey…This is the best weather information out there…
Spring will be here before we know it. Lets pray for one or two or three really nice snow storms to dump several inches over all of Ky before you come hopping along….I love the sun, but nothing makes me feel better than to take a walk in sub-frezzing temps in a steady snow…THINK SNOW for now spring will come..
I am with ya bunny …. so ready for Mr Sun to come out and melt ol Frosty for good. I need to get my fields plowed and get them ready for me to make a living. think sun, think warm, think sun
Remember Bubba, Eventually the Evil Empire was defeated by the Rebels. I think it took 6 episodes. We’re working on 13 so this could be the lucky year. #13
I’ve searched and searched for forecasts that say rain/mix, ending with snow. But, I can’t find it anywhere. The going rate seems to be 2 outcomes: #1- The north/south braches don’t phase and we end up with the common 2-4″ that we all are kind of getting burned out on (me included). #2- Phasing happens, and MUCH of the bluegrass state gets a healthy dose of HEAVY snow (meaning 6″ or more in my book)! So, we shall see in the next 24-36 hours, which will happen. I really think the weather pattern around here is ripe for a good storm. Phasing, just might happen. Don’t give up Bubba. I know it’s hard for you. Either way, I don’t think honestly we have to worry about rain. Just my opinion =-)
How much snow are we actually talking about if everything phases and best case scenario…Are we talking snow measurements in feet or inches..
my personal take on this event, is IF there is phasing that happens, we could be in the 6-12″ range. Don’t take that to the bank. But, no question, it’s a possibility, if this scenario plays out.
As Lieutenant Dan in Forrest Gump would say “You call this a storm”
Seriously thats a good amount of snow..Was hoping like 2 feet but i hope the snow Gods bring BubbaG and richmond a pleasant surprise this weekend..and thxs for the reply c-BIV..Blog would be nothing without your guys knowledge..
I have to agree as well with Mr. Rabbit – I am so tired of this winter already! Heating bills out the roof! Ugh. Even our poor little dog just looks up at us when we send him out with this look of “really?! you expect me to go out there?! We need to talk!” LOL! And worst of all, if the three that work in my family had snow days or even the luxury of going in late, that would be one thing, but no, all three HAVE to report to work and all my hair is turning gray from worrying about them being on icy roads! Give me the sun, please. But I know that there are others who are loving this weather, so enjoy it while you have it! Everyone, have a great week! Stay safe and warm! And Chris, as always, thank you for your unwavering dedication regardless of what is in the forecast!
Can anyone tell me when the rain is expected to move in today? I thought it was later this afternoon, but the radar returns seem to be suggesting otherwise….
what in the world?????..its the middle of january for the love…no farmers are ready to plow yet..give it to more months
BJENKS just a few minutes ago go one for free from a friend.
i am seeing ice on the radar but nothing outside … is it just not hitting the ground ??? is anyone seeing ice ?
Problem for us is too much Jar Jar Bynx :O
I have for this week, but not if we get another sustained cold spell after this. Seems our best chance.
CB would have pulled his gun out again and got the bullet out of his pocket, but he appears to have backed off.
Even if he pulls the trigger, we have had plenty of winter storms that were mainly mix. Just because it is a storm is not a guarantee for big snow.
I have a 15 year old that tells “old-timer” stories to his 12 year old brother about the snow from 1998.
Wild we have gone so long and not busted 10″. Heck, around here we have not busted 8″ events.
Gonna cut and paste this later, k? 😉