Sunday Evening Update

Good evening everyone. Grocery shopping and an hour on the treadmill has kept me from updating until now. That said… there isn’t much I can add to the situation as of right now and I am going to wait to see all the evening model runs before a likely upgrade.

Some thoughts…

– I am liking the chances of snow for Tuesday night and Wednesday morning across the eastern half of the state. Cold air will quickly catch the back edge of the rain and switch it over to light snow and this can put some of the white stuff on the ground.

– The end of the week storm continues to look the part as one that can deliver a nice little dump of snow across our part of the world.

– I still have some worry this thing gets shunted a bit too far south… but the setup looks good for this region as of now.

– The overall pattern continues to be cocked, locked and ready to rock for the rest of the month and into February.

A full update will be coming up a bit later tonight so be sure to check back. To upgrade or stay the course? That is the drama of the next few hours. Nothing wrong with being a little melodramatic!

Take care.

26 Comments

Vinny on January 17, 2011 at 3:15 am

Sounds good CB…
keep up the good work, looks like it’s gonna be a long and busy week..!

How ’bout them Steelers…!

tornadolarkin on January 17, 2011 at 3:20 am

Loving it CB!!! Thanks!!

JoeyW on January 17, 2011 at 3:24 am

Upgrade Chris, upgrade! Take the leap! KY taking a snow thumpin’ on Thursday!

Coffeelady on January 17, 2011 at 3:38 am

Looks like you may be a busy weatherman this week! Thanks for the update. Looking forward to your thoughts on the next one! Have a good evening, all!

Jim on January 17, 2011 at 3:57 am

Chris,

Thank you so much for weather forecasts we can all understand. Your explanations are incredie. This website has been my go to weather site for over a year and I’ve had many thanks for providing the link to your blog to others. Once again, thank you

tornadolarkin on January 17, 2011 at 4:04 am

Ok, anyone other than me, read the wave 3 blog and notice that that Andy guy pretty much contradicts Brian Goode? Just wondering, because he seems to have contradicted him on his last post.

JB1623 on January 17, 2011 at 4:14 am

Pull the trigger Chris. Thank you for all that you do. Even though I live in SW Virginia I still can get a Very accurate forcast from you. I recommend this site to everybody I know. I am the “weather guy” at the Ambulance service where I work and this site helps the service keep ahead of the storm so that we can better serve our paitents.

c-BIV on January 17, 2011 at 4:17 am

Yes, no question he is the pessimistic one of the group at Wave-3! I guess he’s there to for balance. IDK…Like I said before, it reminds me of the days of Belski vs. Wills. Belski would come on and give a bread index of 7. Then, the next morning, Tom Will would come in and say there’s not much in the way of a storm threat, maybe some flurries, haha…they almost always seemed to have different forecast and they worked for the same station.

JB1623 on January 17, 2011 at 4:17 am

After reading this I have came to the conclusion that I cannot spell…..

c-BIV on January 17, 2011 at 4:21 am

@ Tornadolarkin…I posted on here in response to what you said..but, it ended up by itself. Just scroll down and you will see my response.

bengalfan on January 17, 2011 at 4:21 am

….melodramtic..this update was just that…maybe..maybe not..its so funny to hear it said again that the snow may go to far south

i hope its not a nice “little dump”…i want a big dump of snow..lets hope

JJTeach on January 17, 2011 at 4:31 am

I just read that and thought the exact same thing!! And btw…I’m an Anderson County snow freak too!!!

JJTeach on January 17, 2011 at 4:44 am

If anyone knows how to read the 00z model runs and will graciously share them with us that would be great. I don’t think I cant stay up long enough for Chris’s post later on…

tornadolarkin on January 17, 2011 at 4:59 am

Awesome!!! We have gotten out of school a ton though, and some days were unnecessary.

tornadolarkin on January 17, 2011 at 5:01 am

It is insane!!!

mitch on January 17, 2011 at 5:05 am

00z gfs has 2-4 regionwide a touch drier than the 18z run. 00z nam same overall set-up into thursday slightly farther north and slower overall.

c-BIV on January 17, 2011 at 5:06 am

The 00z NAM run only affects our region Through wednesday. We will have to wait til tomorrow for it to pick up the late week storm potential. However, the new 00z NAM and GFS, both, have a nice burst of snow developing from I-65 and east of there on tuesday night. If this verified, we could actually get 1-2″ of surprise snow and then have a quite wednesday afternoon, leading up to the possible much BIGGER storm on Thursday.

BubbaG on January 17, 2011 at 5:11 am

Some folks seem to respectfully read too much into CBs outlooks. Even if it hits, CBs map will likely be a snow sandwich again and mix will be a big part with tail end snow when the cold air catches up.

Not seeing anywhere that CB says big snow. Operative word seems “some”, unless my reading skills ranked even more than normal.

JJTeach on January 17, 2011 at 5:37 am

Thanks Mitch!

JJTeach on January 17, 2011 at 5:40 am

Thanks! Looking forward to seeing if the NAM picks up on the “bigger” storm for Thursday.

mitch on January 17, 2011 at 6:05 am

not sure if you’re still awake. 00z cmc really deelvops the low and sends up the east coast with a major snowstorm for the eastern half of the state friday with warning criteria snows elsehwere.

E-TownKY on January 17, 2011 at 6:06 am

NWS is now saying 50% chance of snow Tuesday before midnight… and their percentages for snow on Thursday & Thursday night go up every time I look at them. It started out at 30%, then 40%, and this morning was 50%, and now its up to 60% and they now say ‘Snow Likely’… :)Exciting when all the sites start talking about snow!
Of course, CB was first. 😉

Randy on January 17, 2011 at 6:07 am

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/00_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_096.jpg

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/00_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_108.jpg

DerekHarlan on January 17, 2011 at 6:24 am

COME ON BIG DOG BAILEY, PULL THE TRIGGER. LATEST GFS RUN SHOWS 6-8 INCHES IN MY AREA IN SE KY. HOWEVER, IM SURE THE SNOW GODS WILL SERVE PLENTY OF WAFFLES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

Winter Warlock on January 17, 2011 at 6:39 am

Looks like there is a nice stream or river of moisture out in the pacific. Will be interesting to see if it continues to head Northwet then drops down our way later this week or further out. It appears that it still open for business with moisture and and cold air in place. Mixed with any mositure from the gulf it would appear to me that the Northeast might really be instore for some big snow over the next 10 days to two weeks.

W.W.

Women Lingerie on April 28, 2011 at 11:20 am

thanks for the how to unbrick tips

Vinny on January 17, 2011 at 3:15 am
Sounds good CB…
keep up the good work, looks like it’s gonna be a long and busy week..!
How ’bout them Steelers…!
tornadolarkin on January 17, 2011 at 3:20 am
Loving it CB!!! Thanks!!
JoeyW on January 17, 2011 at 3:24 am
Upgrade Chris, upgrade! Take the leap! KY taking a snow thumpin’ on Thursday!
Coffeelady on January 17, 2011 at 3:38 am
Looks like you may be a busy weatherman this week! Thanks for the update. Looking forward to your thoughts on the next one! Have a good evening, all!
Jim on January 17, 2011 at 3:57 am
Chris,
Thank you so much for weather forecasts we can all understand. Your explanations are incredie. This website has been my go to weather site for over a year and I’ve had many thanks for providing the link to your blog to others. Once again, thank you
tornadolarkin on January 17, 2011 at 4:04 am
Ok, anyone other than me, read the wave 3 blog and notice that that Andy guy pretty much contradicts Brian Goode? Just wondering, because he seems to have contradicted him on his last post.
JB1623 on January 17, 2011 at 4:14 am
Pull the trigger Chris. Thank you for all that you do. Even though I live in SW Virginia I still can get a Very accurate forcast from you. I recommend this site to everybody I know. I am the “weather guy” at the Ambulance service where I work and this site helps the service keep ahead of the storm so that we can better serve our paitents.
c-BIV on January 17, 2011 at 4:17 am
Yes, no question he is the pessimistic one of the group at Wave-3! I guess he’s there to for balance. IDK…Like I said before, it reminds me of the days of Belski vs. Wills. Belski would come on and give a bread index of 7. Then, the next morning, Tom Will would come in and say there’s not much in the way of a storm threat, maybe some flurries, haha…they almost always seemed to have different forecast and they worked for the same station.
JB1623 on January 17, 2011 at 4:17 am
After reading this I have came to the conclusion that I cannot spell…..
c-BIV on January 17, 2011 at 4:21 am
@ Tornadolarkin…I posted on here in response to what you said..but, it ended up by itself. Just scroll down and you will see my response.
bengalfan on January 17, 2011 at 4:21 am
….melodramtic..this update was just that…maybe..maybe not..its so funny to hear it said again that the snow may go to far south
i hope its not a nice “little dump”…i want a big dump of snow..lets hope
JJTeach on January 17, 2011 at 4:31 am
I just read that and thought the exact same thing!! And btw…I’m an Anderson County snow freak too!!!
JJTeach on January 17, 2011 at 4:44 am
If anyone knows how to read the 00z model runs and will graciously share them with us that would be great. I don’t think I cant stay up long enough for Chris’s post later on…
tornadolarkin on January 17, 2011 at 4:59 am
Awesome!!! We have gotten out of school a ton though, and some days were unnecessary.
tornadolarkin on January 17, 2011 at 5:01 am
It is insane!!!
mitch on January 17, 2011 at 5:05 am
00z gfs has 2-4 regionwide a touch drier than the 18z run. 00z nam same overall set-up into thursday slightly farther north and slower overall.
c-BIV on January 17, 2011 at 5:06 am
The 00z NAM run only affects our region Through wednesday. We will have to wait til tomorrow for it to pick up the late week storm potential. However, the new 00z NAM and GFS, both, have a nice burst of snow developing from I-65 and east of there on tuesday night. If this verified, we could actually get 1-2″ of surprise snow and then have a quite wednesday afternoon, leading up to the possible much BIGGER storm on Thursday.
BubbaG on January 17, 2011 at 5:11 am
Some folks seem to respectfully read too much into CBs outlooks. Even if it hits, CBs map will likely be a snow sandwich again and mix will be a big part with tail end snow when the cold air catches up.
Not seeing anywhere that CB says big snow. Operative word seems “some”, unless my reading skills ranked even more than normal.
JJTeach on January 17, 2011 at 5:37 am
Thanks Mitch!
JJTeach on January 17, 2011 at 5:40 am
Thanks! Looking forward to seeing if the NAM picks up on the “bigger” storm for Thursday.
mitch on January 17, 2011 at 6:05 am
not sure if you’re still awake. 00z cmc really deelvops the low and sends up the east coast with a major snowstorm for the eastern half of the state friday with warning criteria snows elsehwere.
E-TownKY on January 17, 2011 at 6:06 am
NWS is now saying 50% chance of snow Tuesday before midnight… and their percentages for snow on Thursday & Thursday night go up every time I look at them. It started out at 30%, then 40%, and this morning was 50%, and now its up to 60% and they now say ‘Snow Likely’… :)Exciting when all the sites start talking about snow!
Of course, CB was first. 😉
Randy on January 17, 2011 at 6:07 am
http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/00_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_096.jpg
http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/00_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_108.jpg
DerekHarlan on January 17, 2011 at 6:24 am
COME ON BIG DOG BAILEY, PULL THE TRIGGER. LATEST GFS RUN SHOWS 6-8 INCHES IN MY AREA IN SE KY. HOWEVER, IM SURE THE SNOW GODS WILL SERVE PLENTY OF WAFFLES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
Winter Warlock on January 17, 2011 at 6:39 am
Looks like there is a nice stream or river of moisture out in the pacific. Will be interesting to see if it continues to head Northwet then drops down our way later this week or further out. It appears that it still open for business with moisture and and cold air in place. Mixed with any mositure from the gulf it would appear to me that the Northeast might really be instore for some big snow over the next 10 days to two weeks.
W.W.
Women Lingerie on April 28, 2011 at 11:20 am
thanks for the how to unbrick tips

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