Good Sunday afternoon everyone. Our week ahead weather continues to look more interesting as the models are trending toward a snowier storm for the end of the week. That doesn’t mean they are right… but that is the flavor of the day.
I have been looking in depth at the overall setup for the second half of the week and it is one that has a higher than normal risk of producing a decent snowfall around here. If I continue to see the same signature showing up on the model runs tonight… I won’t hesitate to upgrade to a Winter Storm Threat.
The GFS family is looking rather snowy…
GFS
GFS Ensembles
The Canadian model is similar and the European model has the same general idea… albeit slightly more disjointed because of it’s bias in handling southwestern U.S. energy. My concern is still that the northern stream is so dominant it basically crushes the southern stream storm.
Before then… we have a good shot at some snow Tuesday night into early Wednesday as cold air crashes in to change the departing rain shield over to snow. This can put down a light snowfall for many.
I will have another update later this evening with a full post to follow later tonight. Have a great Sunday and take care.
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First? PRAY THAT THE SNOW GODS BRING THEIR WRATH UPON US! HEHEHEHEHE
Looking forward to the SNOWY TREND..:)
today though here in the south was a tropical heatwave, with temps. soaring into the middle 40’s!!! and partly to mostly sunny skies for most of the day…that snowpack has become a nasty slushy,sloppy mess…looking forward to a FRESH snowcover…:)..
currently
knox co. mesonet site
44*
parly sunny skies
Aren’t the models backing off on the arctic air late week? Would that not allow the southern stream to come further north instead of giving the deep south another snow storm? Guessing here but hopeful!
chris– dont worry bout the artic blast–(earlier last week) you thought it would be here this weekend __so it can wait a few more days let it snow 10 inches first..then let the blast come on in
and by “decent snowfall” and “rather snowy” you mean eastern Ky. cause that is where is always goes.
Looks like we may get 1 day of school this week in for Clay and the other southeastern county schools if the weather pans out. Our county is working on a snow plan to use. We have missed I think 15 days so far. I hope if we get this snow it is the BIG one as everyone is hoping, even though I have enjoyed these 3 inch snows I would like for my girls to see a snow close to a foot. Thanks for the update Chris I look forward to the evening update a the upgrade to WINTER STORM THREAT.
VERY interesting discussion from NWS in JKL for late week storm!
“THE SECOND SOUTHERN TRACK STORM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG A TRACK THAT IS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE
INITIAL STORM. THE INTERESTING THING ABOUT THE SECOND STORM IS THAT
THE MODEL IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN
TENNESSEE…AND MOVING IT RIGHT ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS STORM TRACK TYPICALLY IS VERY
FAVORABLE FOR SOME OF THE MORE IMPRESSIVE SNOW EVENTS THAT HAVE
OCCURRED IN EASTERN KENTUCKY OVER THE PAST DECADE OR SO…SO THIS
SECOND SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY.”
Wave 3’s BG posted a snow map on Facebook, LOL he said he may regret posting it but wanted to give people some happy thoughts. 🙂
Looks good for E-Town on that map, but still hoping for that dark blue color 😉
http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=187821914570338&set=a.186920854660444.45456.186917104660819
Wow! Looking more interesting than before! Hopeful for things to come together just right for a BIG snow.
Chris, I thought I read where our temps were going to back off today? Maybe I read it wrong. We are at 42, but we have had very hazy to cloudy skies most of the day. Very strange…guess that is what kept temps down somewhat.
blizzardtim, we still have a little snow here and there. This is the longest I can remember a snowfall staying on the ground in a long time. Looking forward to the next update, Chris!
Read literally, the GFS run coming down now shows 3-5″ of snow for almost all of us on Friday.
BUBBA
I saw your comment on the last post………..I’m NOT joining the dark side, simply because I know that what has happened in the past will happen again.
I was just thinking to myself about how I’m dreading reading all the negativity on this blog *IF* this particular storm doesn’t happen…..
BUT……I can’t help myself…..I’m addicted to this blog and I gotta read all the comments.
that was what he said but nobody is perfect so…
If this storm comes, I’m happy for the rest of you. But I dread it as I have to have surgery on the 24th. I sure hope the roads are clear enough here in Eastern Kentucky for me to get to the hospital. 🙂
Thanks for the update Chris!
I know this is a shocker but the weather channel 10 day doesn’t show all this blogs excitment for snow this week. What models does TWC use I wonder?? Interesting to see if they change their tune later this week.
Pardon me for looking ahead, but I happened to notice something else coming up for the last week of the month–26th & 27th. Anybody see that?
Sorry.. I know, we haven’t even gotten to Thursday yet. It was hard to ignore though… 😉
TWC is just a figment of our weather imagination. Nothing to concern yourself with. 😉
TWC is a JOKE….. 1-3″ for me every system, but yet I have seen 3 that has been over 6″ for me this year.
Since I,m the new kid on the block…where do I go to find out what the pretty colors mean on the different
model charts….I really enjoy your blog and when I grow-up (and I am talking about my second childhood) I.m going to be a Meteorologist and not a Registered Nurse 🙂
Think of TWC as news not forecasting…
BG is wrong and I’ll tell you why. He has central KY sandwiched between 2 areas of lesser snow. 3 inches vs. 4 inches. This is a meterologically phenomenon impossibility according to the past 13 years. Darth Bubba would approve this had I given him a chance and asked him in advance.
The preceding was meant to be in good humor and not meant to upset anyone. deep down we want it to snow a foot or more as much as anyone.
If you don’t mind me asking Char, what kind of surgery are you having? I’m having surgery on the 20th & I don’t wanna see any snow till I get it & recover!
Getting better… Take a look
http://wxcaster4.com/gfs/CONUS2_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_120HR.gif
With the usual NW trend, CKY should be in a sweet spot…
GO STEELERS
This event is a looongshot for big snow. A winter storm can be mix as well. This one would have it all- about 40% rain, 40% mix and 20% snow. The issue is how much does it shift to snow IF the cold air and the moisture meet at the same time? The Kentucky 32/33 degree “law” has been a common issue for these.
Winter storms do not have to be mainly snow. Quite a few of our events were mix that CB posted storm status for.
If I had a fermented beverage for every time the north got snow and we got mix from these systems, I would be tanked for the year 😉
waiting to see how this all pans out, some models seem to be showing this one staying south of ohio. Hope not!! looking forward to that evening update cb!
I’ll believe it when I see it. 3-4″ is not a significant event. We’ll see what happens as the time gets closer.
Ginny, your map makes more since than BG’s facebook page. Central KY is the median again on the interstate of bigger snow. Go figure. Bigger snows to the north, bigger snows to the south. Maybe the models have caught on to the trend.
It’s not my map, and who the hell is Ginny…? lol
Jamie:
3-4″ would be sweet…
“pigs get fed, hogs get slaughtered”
As always I am in the bullseye again with 6-8″. Thats just through Friday. We will still have Saturday to go.
Vinny, did not mean to offend. I tried to correct Ginny to Vinny before I sent. Did not correct. I know it wasnt your map but I was trying to give credit to the people that sent them. Just trying to lighten things up.
January, 1978. January 1994. March 1996. February, 1998. And for you real old timers, December, 1966. It happens here.
It’s about time.
WOW, thats a bold prediction! But I’ll jump on board and ride that train.
Eyewall……..
Wasn’t there a huge snow in Jan 1996…..Also 1993 I think ( I know Lexington’s season total for the 92/93 Winter season was 20 plus inches…..So I’m assuming there was a big snow in there somewhere….Also 1976..1977……1979…..1985
You didn’t offend me my friend… Just messin’ with ya’…
I know this is 10 days away and will probably change with each run, but this would be a good smackdown. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_pcp_240m.gif
It may or may not happen, but as CB has eluded too, the pattern is loaded right now, and at any time A MAJOR snow storm could blow up..
Mitch has echoed the same thing…
Thanks.
That’s not BG’s forecast and he made that clear to everyone. It’s just what the GFS was showing at the time….
With the “it’s about time” it give you the sense that the world is about to end. 😉
This reply is not in reponse to being upset, but this is not a map made by an individual. It is a map of what the GFS Model is seeing as potential snowfall.
The lesser amounts over north central Kentucky could be the result of the northern and southern streams not coming together, leaving the middle portion of the area in a sandwich of lesser snow. That is my take on what I see from the map.
My post was not meant to be taken seriously folks. Read the disclaimer. Good humor.
March of 1993 was around 12 inches in Lexington. That was the day of a UK game in the SEC Tournament played at Rupp that season. January 1994 was the big 18-20 inch snow followed by the -20 temps afterward.
Oh my… didn’t mean to start an argument or have people get all with that post.
I know he wasn’t serious with that map, neither was I.. just wanted to spread the happy thoughts even further. I guess I can’t do that here…?
Yeah! Thats what I was talking about in my above post about the 26th/27th!
Looks promising, hope it stays that way!