Good Sunday to one and all. After a pretty nice weather day Saturday… our weekend is ending on a colder note across the state. This is leading into another very active winter weather pattern for the upcoming week that can might produce some more wicked stuff.

Let’s start with the precious present and work forward.

Temps today will be much colder than our Saturday readings as highs range from the upper 20s and low 30s in the north and east to mid and upper 30s in the south and west. There will be a mix of sun and clouds with the chance for some light snow and flurries early today in the east. Today’s flakes are not a big deal.

The next storm system to impact our region will move in late Monday and carry us into the middle of the week. The onset of precipitation looks to be later in the day Monday meaning the threat for anything frozen on the front end would be pretty low.

A stout system will be diving into the Great Lakes Tuesday and will drag a cold front through here. Showers should become rather coming from Monday night into much of Tuesday as temps warm to around toward the upper 30s to near 40 for highs. A second low should be developing across the Carolinas Tuesday and will then work almost due north into New England by early Wednesday. Much colder air will quickly work in from the northwest Tuesday evening and should change our rain over to a period of snow from west to east with snow showers into early Wednesday.

You can see how this plays out on the GFS Ensembles…


That setup has a chance to put a light snowfall down Tuesday night into Wednesday… especially in the east.

Highs for Wednesday would likely stay in the 20s across our region.

That brings us to the next item up for bids for Thursday and Friday. For several days now… there has been a strong signal for an eastern U.S. winter storm and ensuing arctic outbreak. This signal is still there, but the situation is far from being cut and dry.

There are three possible scenarios at play here…

– The northern stream energy diving into the country is being pushed by some crazy cold air across much of Canada. There is the chance this energy crushes any storm that tries to come our way from the south. That would mean we would get an arctic frontal passage with a few inches of snow and the coldest air of the season behind it.

– Scenario one plays out as mentioned above… but does not include a major arctic outbreak behind the initial surge. Instead… a second clipper would dive in from the northwest a day or so later with more snow.

– The other scenario has the northern stream energy diving in and merging with something coming in from the southern stream. That would form a big winter storm that could deliver a lot of snow to our part of the world. It would also be followed by the coldest air of the season.

The GFS model had been showing option one playing out. The latest run takes on a more threatening appearance and looks to be somewhere in between the solutions one and three…



There should be a lot of wild model swings over the next few days, so let’s sit tight and see which scenario takes charge.

I will be updating you guys each step of the way so keep checking back. Have a great Sunday and take care.