Good Monday afternoon everyone. I have decided to upgrade to WINTER STORM THREAT mode for the end of the week for the potential for 4″ or more of snow across our region. THREAT status on the blog means there is an increased potential for a winter storm to impact the state. If we go to Alert Status… that means take it to the bank. 
The trend on the models today is one toward a partial phase of the northern and southern branches of the jet stream. This would cause low pressure to develop and work out of the southern plains into the Tennessee Valley then up the east coast from Thursday into Friday. This would put much of the state in a favorable setup for 4″ or more of snow.
Let’s take a look at some of the latest models.
The NAM only goes out through 84 hours, but shows a quick hitting winter storm for most of the state…
This matches what the GFS Ensembles have been showing for several runs now…
The GFS is also trending toward a slightly bigger system…
All of the above models would indicate a moderate snowfall of greater than 4″ for much of the region. The Canadian Model continues to show the big daddy storm as it has a full phase of the jet streams…
So far… it is the only model showing such a storm.
Arctic air would then spill in behind the snows on Friday as highs may struggle to get out of the teens with wind chills at or below zero. There could be another snow making clipper moving in over the weekend.
So there you have it… A WINTER STORM THREAT for Thursday and Friday for the potential for 4″ or more of snow.
I will update again this evening if needed. Take care.
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Should we be afraid?
Should we be afraid?
Should we be afraid?
Should we be afraid?
Did the gfs run yet?
Well, it is bedtime….I will see what Chris says in the AM! Night all….dreaming of snow….
I agree with your assessment.
I do not see it being rain. but that’s just what the nam says lol…..but then the temp drops and we get hammered with snow
I’m a faithful believer of CB as he usually hits our weather in Claiborne Co TN better than our own stations. CB seems to be right in tune with the farmers almanac give or take a few days. That said, I’m not so good with maps but it looks like northern TN will get some of the action here too. Could anyone tell me if that assumption is correct?
That is exactly what I said. AW always poo-poos snow.
hammered with snow! I LOVE the way you’re talking! BRING IT ON! I think my kids and my sled are in for fun 🙂
Anybody viewed the newest GFS models yet?
Says BG over at WAVE: ” ‎00z GFS- is not as fast with phasing as the NAM. In fact, it does not phase until it reaches Virginia. Therefore, lower totals with an output of roughly 3.5″. Given the trends/ranges tonight, I suspect a Winter Storm WATCH would be issued tomorrow for this event. But that is up to the great folks at the NWS to decide.”
Hmmmmmmmmmmmmm…………
Says BG over at WAV3 ‎00z GFS- is not as fast with phasing as the NAM. In fact, it does not phase until it reaches Virginia. Therefore, lower totals with an output of roughly 3.5″. Given the trends/ranges tonight, I suspect a Winter Storm WATCH would be issued tomorrow for this event. But that is up to the great folks at the NWS to decide
Haha! I was thinking the same thing!!!
This MUST mean we will get a foot if snow!
Yes…now phasing over Virgina.
3-5 inches for most of Ky.SE Ky a little more.
Tough call on this one – going with 1-3 for my area in southern IL and west KY. But – NAM sure is interesting with the early phase and the heavy band potential for parts of the region. Lots of wind on the NAM. Would be 20-30 mph winds over this part of the region. Certainly a nice winter storm with temps very cold on Friday. GFS phases much later. Text output earlier today from EC was only about 2 inches for KPAH. Has been going back and forth between 1-3″ over the last few days. Will be a fun storm to track. Not sure the snowfall totals match the surface and upper level features on the NAM. Seems to me that there would be heavier amounts possible than it is indicating by actual BUFKIT data. Strong storm on the NAM.
Thanks. Any rain involved or all snow?
21z sref indicating condiderbale omega lift for heavy snow thursday night the forcing locations argue central and eastern kentucky see the heaviest snow not north of the Ohio river. However southeast ky starts briefly as rain before dynamical cooling changes rain to snow quickly.
TG on channel 27 in Lex says temps stay below freezing Thursday and Friday. Hopefully no rain and no waa.
You had me on BUFKIT. 🙂 How much snow for Louisville?
8-10″ for far extreme Southeast KY. Upslope will kick in to help the totals where parts of KY doesnt have upslope.
Louisville will be right on the line of
snow,sleet,or rain to start. If you are south of Louisville, I would say some rain to start with.The rain shouldn’t last long. This is according to GFS.
thanks for the update cb! now we wait for the alert!!!!!!!!!!!
Meeeee tooooo MikM!!!!
Sounds great to me!!!!!!!
if we get 3 or 4 inches or 8 or 10 reguardless this winter has been hit after hit with cold and snow 18.3” here on the season. i could honestly do without the bitter cold that isnt too fun but if it can up ratios to give us a true blizzard…that would be fine!
yea we’ve had several 3-5 inch snows here ready for something bigger…listen to me be picky now LOL
it wasnt long ago i remeber living in lexington and most winters it snowed very little with several 10 inch or less for the entire winter
I like this 4cast…but lets only HOPE that us here in NC/Central KY get in on some huge snowfall. Someone said on another blog I keep up with that they wish it would be like Dec.04 when L-Ville had nearly a foot..and some here have said that they’re missing all the “snow love”…I can only sympathize with the ones that miss it..here in Nelson Co./Bardstown, we hardly EVER get any of the love…,if we’re lucky, we get perhaps 1-2″, and if we’re really fortunate, we get ICE. In Dec 04, that ice/snow cut-off was approx. 21 miles…we had ice and no power until Christmas morning,everyone north of the Bullitt/Nelson line had 9-12″ of snow. I saw awhile ago (here) where someone in N.KY. said they didn’t get much,either,followed by a snide comment…hey! What I just said goes to show that it can and DOES happen. In fact, the snowfall here last week..we here in the city got all of a hair’s breadth over 1″…my aunt lives 6 miles west of me and they got nearly 4”.
Personally, I’d like to see the whole state SLAMMED so that we ALL could be happy!!! 🙂
Should we be afraid?
Thanks for updating, Chris. So we are now at THREAT status….usually when Chris does this, he is feeling pretty confidentabout what he is seeing….just don’tknow for who yet. Will continue to be cautiously optimistic for now. (I’m afraid to get excited. 😉 )
Thanks, Chris. Anxiously awaiting your next post.
We are only 72 hrs out from the start of it. 😉
I live in Floyd County, Indiana and we got slammed in 04. We had 28″ on the ground and nowhere for it to go. My friends had family in from England and they thought it was the best thing ever! It was a week before we saw a plow in our subdivision! I want that again! 🙂
I really want a big one here too!!!!
28″???! Wow…I didn’t realize you guys got THAT MUCH??! And…best I recall, we had about 23″ on the ground at once during the 77 winter, after storms coming every other day in mid/late Jan…yea..that’s what I’d like…tho the 94 storm totals were awesome, too! 🙂
Dont forget and join the Chat..
http://www.ekywx.com/kychat.htm
What is your blog?
Been burned too many times this year here in Clays Ferry area. Not letting myself get too excited about this, so far.
I will never forget that snowstorm!! In French Lick,IN there was 2 feet of snow and my uncle in Corydon,IN had 30″ he couldn’t get out of his driveway for our Family Christmas in French Lick!
I will never forget that snowstorm!! In French Lick,IN there was 2 feet of snow and my uncle in Corydon,IN had 30″ he couldn’t get out of his driveway for our Family Christmas in French Lick!
yeah, link us please, that is if Chris doesn’t mind and I’m sure he doesn’t
In about 40 minutes the nam 0z run should be out on the cyber net. Highly anticipating this run,hope the trend line continues.
Hey Jeff. We were thinking same thing at same time:)
Agreed. 3-5″ for north KY and 3-4″ for eastern KY seems best case ATM.
Central KY and southern areas are about half. Be nice to see more cold air interact, but I think it will be hurt by our 33/32 degree rule and mainly mix.
Hope CB posts something to refute and shows why the warm air will not impede results for the usual suspects (we all know who we are).
Several have mentioned temps for thursday> For what it’s worth TG had a high temp of 30 for thursday on his 6:00 forecast. I couldn’t hear the sound so I have no idea what he said if anything about snow potential
wow thats nice 😀
Perhaps 1-3 isolated 2-4 around area.