Good afternoon and Merry Christmas Eve. The weather outside is frightful as the Heat Meiser continues to flex some holiday muscle on our region. Gusty winds and isolated showers are coming along for the ride with a super active pattern waiting in the wings for the close of the year.

Wind gusts may hit 40mph or greater through tonight and into Christmas Day. Temps today range from the mid 50s to mid 60s across the state and we are tracking a shower chance…

Christmas Day features temps in the 60s with that shower chance continuing.

This sets the stage for a busy pattern for the closing week of the year and the state of 2022.

The GFS is riding the struggle bus when it comes to handling the extreme temp gradient and that’s impacting how it handles each individual system moving through. The model is exhibiting some big run to run variations. Here’s the current run…

The GFS is now the only model not seeing the first shot of cold to begin 2022.

The Canadian model has this cold shot and is showing winter weather to come along for the ride…

The EURO has a similar setup but is just a little south with the track…

You can see the cold crashing in on the Canadian…

And the EURO…

The GFS Ensembles show the same thing at the same time…

That first shot may lift out before the next shot arrives a few days later…

The Canadian Ensembles are even colder with the overall setup…

Have a Merry Christmas Eve and take care.