Good evening, folks. We continue to track the increasing potential for another high impact winter storm for our part of the world this weekend. It’s still not  the slam dunk last week’s storm was, but confidence is higher now than when the day started.

My thoughts from earlier remain essentially unchanged:

  • There are still many unanswered questions with this whole scenario, so you guys need to know that right out of the gate.
  • The time frame for this possible impact is Saturday through Monday morning.
  • Energy drops from the upper Midwest southward through the Mississippi Valley Friday into Saturday.
  • The end result may be two low pressure systems before one main low takes over across the Southern Appalachian Mountains or into the Mid-Atlantic States.
  • The first low runs into the Tennessee Valley before giving way to the mac daddy to our east.
  • That low would then rapidly strengthen as it moves northward, likely well inland along the eastern seaboard.

The computer model forecasts are coming into better agreement, but we are still seeing some run to run change. The earlier run of the GFS had much more of a mixing threat here…

The late day run had less mix and more snow around here…

The EURO hasn’t been the best in the world of late and didn’t really do very well with last week’s storm until the last minute.  Recent runs of the EURO were suppressed to the south and southeast, but each run comes farther west…

Nothing about this is set in stone, but that should change with runs later tonight and early Thursday.

This continues to be part of a harsh winter pattern that is just in the beginning stages, so buckle up.

I will have the latest on WKYT NEWS on the CW Lexington starting at 10pm and on WKYT NEWS at 11.

Enjoy the evening and take care.