Good early Christmas Eve. A BLIZZARD WATCH has been issued for parts of western Kentucky. Here’s a look at the counties included…
The latest run of the NAM continues to trend eastward with the track of our low and puts much more of the state in play for heavy snow. I don’t think the NWS offices in Paducah, Louisville or Wilmington are far enough east with the watches.
Winds with this storm will gust to 40mph or better at times.
More updates to come this evening. Merry Christmas everyone!
Hope you’re right, Chris, about the warning areas not being far enough east. Seems kinda silly to see a Blizzard Watch in one county and then no watch, advisory or warning in an adjacent county. Would think the Blizzard Watch areas would at least have a WSWatch next county. Regardless, the next 36 hours are gonna be FUN!
Yeah I know I live in Murray, KY just two counties sw of Paducah and guess they think we will see all rain lol
How much snow for central ky?
This storm? Not much, and that makes me sad, for I live in Lexington…
We will see. The models are trending a lot difference look than they were giving yesterday. Maybe we can get something, maybe not.
Never doubt the evil “D” and his evil minion Lucy. Fourteen years in a row is a mighty trend that will be hard to bust.
Accuweather’s predicted snowfall map shows the big D well. The snowfall curves around us perfectly…
So close…. Again. (sigh.)
Fools gold, this this system will only produce snow for the areas to the extreme north west side, the core of the system is to warm to support a wide spread event.
The reason on why the NWS out of Louisville prolly did not issue a watch is the 18z nam came out after there evening forecast discussion if the evening models continue the eastward trend look for watches in the Louisville area the new nam has 3-6 inches for the Louisville metro.
Can I get a link to the new nam please?
I guess eastern ky don’t have a chance…
18z gfs is further southeast still.
Seth, I hope your correct, but to me, it looked like it took the same track as the 12z. It just went by us a few hours sooner, which would transistion to snow sooner. I may be incorrect.
Yes it is the Ohio river county’s are going to get a monster snow
Chris Baily thanks for the update and Merry Christmas to you and all of the blog family. Trends show that two updates in two hours means good things. I will wait up for Santa tonight have couple shots of Wild Turkey and have him pull that low futher east.
Have a great evening everyone. THINK POSITIVE and THINK SNOW!!!
Lexington is about as far East that has a legitimate shot at significant snowfall.
I’m on the Ohio River in Harrison county Indiana and it doesn’t seem they are saying we are going to get much
You’re very close to seeing significant snow.
Thank you Joey.
Local met on WEHT just said he expects blizzard conditions to stay in Indiana and that the counties without advisories may see no snow at all. Will those who are native to Owensboro tell me if that sounds reasonable to you all.
I saw that, Lisa, and think Heckard is downplaying storm east of Evansville too much. GFS and NAM have trended more our way and Paducah NWS showing 3+ inches for Owensboro and to the southwest. Wayne Hart is the best met on Evansville TV hands down.
No not reasonable at all the track has been shifting all day Owensboro will get a healthy dose of snow Louisville will get a healthy dose as long as the track keeps on shifting east all county’s along the river will get a measurable snow
Heckard would have been better off highlighting the potential for heavy snow and high winds throughout their viewing area (Evansville area). He focused too much on southern Illinois. He might eventually be right about that, but the Blizzard Watch covers several counties in southern IN and some in WKY too. This event could still cover the entire area. I’ve NEVER seen a Blizzard Watch for this area. He apparently doesn’t realize how unprecedented that is.
Thanks!! I didn’t think that sounded right, but wanted to be sure.
It’s just how this storm is. Someone will get hammered with heavy snow. 20 miles away might be all rain. This storm might surprise or do as predicted. It is tough to say. I mean NWS offices are still struggling with it. That kinda tells you something.
This is what all storms do in KY. 20 miles either way!
Can anybody tell me when the last blizzard watch happened for this area? Im 31 years old and dont remember ever seeing one either.
Probably not in your lifetime. Paducah issuing a Blzd Watch or Warning is extremely RARE!
1977-78….Is the only time I have ever heard Kentucky and Blizzard at the same time.
1993 Superstorm had blizzard warnings in Kentucky…
Replying from the heart of Louisville. I’ve been lurking in the shadows of this blog for the last couple of years, but this is my first post. Perhaps, it has something to do with Louisville possibly picking up on the best snow we’ve gotten in a couple of years? I’ll let you decide 😉
Locally, WHAS and WAVE aren’t even including accumulation totals in their forecast because they’re still too uncertain. As close as we are to the “Watch” areas, and with the way the models have been trending, I would expect Louisville to be included in the “Watch” soon. I just caught Brian Goode’s (WAVE 3) forecast on TV, he reaffirmed that they’re too uncertain, talked about the current trend of the models and even said, “In a bit, I’ll show you a couple of the models that have snow amounts for us that might surprise you a little!” I’ve been trying very hard to not get excited over this… history repeats itself… but it’s getting close enough that I can start to feel myself slipping… 😉
Not to be a downer for our western friends, but it is a watch and not a warning. Big difference. On the plus side for central Kentucky is we have low expectations 🙂
Merry Xmas BubbaG…..How excited would you be if a blizzard watch was posted for Central KY……Pretty excited I bet….
Merry Christmas!
Nope. Simply because since not one big snow has panned out for central Kentucky since 98 from one of these southern fed systems, why would this be any different? 😉
Does the weekend hold any Snow Love for Eastern KY, say Floyd or Pike Co’s, or are we gonna be in a rainstorm again??
NAM has shifted heaviest snowfall axis southeast by 140 miles in 2 runs. St.Louis to Paducah. Still, I don’t expect to see snowfall here in cky.
What do you see for Murray, KY?
Not even an inch on the backside of the low for Lex?
I am starting to think this sucker may end up being a statewide event !
is Louisville still looking at 2-4″?
Why is when the models trend in favor for more snow in ky the NWS never budges but at the first sign of a more north or west trend the are all over it and taking it as the gospel, just asking??
Can someone explain Mr. Baileys latest tweet about the 18z run of the GFS to me, please and thank you.
CB is saying the gfs eastward trend is a good thing if you want the snow
But it didn’t really bring the snow east into Kentucky. The snow’s almost as far away from Louisville as it was on the last run.
For whom thou.
In Paducah, visiting the family for the holidays. Looks like it was a good move to get out of Jessamine County for this snow chance. Only problem is that I need to travel about 45 miles to visit more family on Christmas night and I’m worried about travel conditions. It may be snow, heavy snow, blizzard, or nothing…
The 18Z GFS may have been colder and trended to more towards the east, but the snowfall map didn’t seem to move much at all. It still shows not much of anything for Louisville. Maybe I’m looking at the wrong map, though.
hey CRYSTAL, the SPIRITS ARE FLOWING!!! WOOOOOOOOO
sorry 97 percent ky aint getting no snow unless a SUPRISE INTERVENTION FROM GOD happens, but it aint going keep ole ROLO from have a great time now thru NEW YEARS!!
follow me !seekingthegold on twitter for HORSE PLAY winners, 4 for 4 last 4 GULFSTREAM plays!!!
your funny rolo
Right back at you My Friend Rolo Merry Christmas!!!!!!!!!!!
If ur lookin at earls wxcaster. The new gfs isn’t on there
Doesn’t the 00Z NAM come out soon?
Believe 00z runs should start coming out in about an hour. Here’s hoping for some snow, even a couple inches in Louisville. Been out of town anytime we’ve seen anything the last 5-6 years.
When we had the 20 inches in Lex from the Feb 98 storm, I remember staying up really late, like until 5 am, and it looked like a blizzard. I remember it being very windy while the snow was falling because the snow was drifting over the backyard fence and completely up to the satellite dish. I had only lived here less than two years and I remember that being the wildest thing I had seen since the superstorm 93 when I was still living back in the Asheville NC area. That 98 storm totally compared to the 93 superstorm for me. I was right in the middle of that in Western NC……. Though I don’t remember blizzard warnings for the superstorm 93 OR the Feb 98 storm. To me, they both looked like blizzards. You couldn’t see anything.
Its funny, did anyone see how bill meck on 18 seems to think its not much to this storm, but is it just me or is Chris acting like the storm will hit eastern ky like Winchester pretty heavy????
to my knowledge chris hasnt said anything about eaatern ky
He said looks like heavy snow for most of the state, well I take that as more than what bill said
he just said More not most i wish it was us but don’t think anybody south of Lex is getting heavy snow to amount to anything we tend to ignore bill round these parts 😉
I though he typed much. “More” is even MORE subjective, so watch out for a little girl holding a football 😉
This is kind of like a Seinfeld episode. A lot about nothing 🙂
I think he said MUCH of the state, which is a VERY subjective term. MOST is objective, since implies a majority.
For perspective, the system has had to shift as much as it already did just to give Louisville a chance. Seems most of central Kentucky will be on the border for getting a little snow, so seems the further SE you go… not much.
Is blizzard warnings more about the wind than the snow totals, seems like I’ve seen blizzard warnings up north for just a few inches of snow combined with winds of over 35mph!
Officially, the National Weather Service defines a blizzard as large amounts of falling OR blowing snow with winds in excess of 35 mph and visibilities of less than 1/4 of a mile for an extended period of time (greater than 3 hours).Found this off a website lol
It also depends on where, state and county. Each area has their own criteria. I live close to a county line, and I can be in a warning if I step down the road, or a watch if I stay home, but the forecast for both areas are the exact same. Rural, urban, hills, flat, all make a big difference in the criteria.
Correct… my family went to Chicago this past weekend… we drove through blizzard warning conditions and all told, Central and Eastern Kentucky came out of the same system with more accumulation… We had a dusting to 1/2″ of snow in the Chicagoland area.
STAY POSITIVE, THINK SNOW
Merry Christmas people of the blog, regardless of what happens or doesn’t happen we all need to move to Minnesota.
The dome would follow us their and ky would start getting hammered with snow 😉
That needs a like button lol.
The NAM appears to place low in the SE corner of Kentucky, although I am viewing this on my smartphone and it is difficult to tell!
That would mean mainly cold rain for SE Kentucky and point NW of there would have more of a chance for “more” snow. Everything is relative. Example: 1.5″ is MORE than 1″.
From Brian Goode Wave3 here in Louisville:
“LATEST NAM— pretty big jog east…and colder. More of a snow threat again for southern IN and into Louisville. Still analyzing the data …more to come.”
NAM map is posted on his Facebook page
I checked his Facebook page and I cannot find that comment or the map.
Nam shifts SE! Let’s see what the GFS does. Here’s hopeing!
Please keep in mind where the low is where most of the cold rain is as well. The shifts currently taking place correlates with Louisville getting in on the action. Would take a megachunga shift pretty much out of the state to get “most” of the state in play. That is as likely as Rolo winning Pulitzer 😉 🙂
didnt chris say one model showed the low only hitting n tenn before turning erast. Would that do it for central Ky?
Yep. Perhaps that would get us in the 4″ area and also some luv for some areas SE of here. Who really knows? Considering the mets STILL do not know, I will not bother with a charade that I do either 😉
Thanks. Who knows till it falls right? Dont mind it coming as long as no ice.
Still only a dusting for Hodgenville ):
THINK SNOW, STAY POSITIVE
The heaviest snow will be on the Northwest side of the Low. If the Low can shift enough south east, the 9-12 inches currently expected as near as Jasper could easily shift as far south as Hardin County. If the trends continue, then I believe much of the state will get snow cover and some other areas nearer to Louisville will get very significant snow.
You guys enjoy your snow, us eastern Kentuckians will enjoy that lovely cold rain.
Sigh, at least if y’all DO get snow you have hills, we can sled anywhere!
err… cannot
will we get anything here in the Ashland/Flatwoods area or just old yucky rain!!!!! : (
00z NAM keeps track, perhaps a smidge south and east.
While this still means several inches of snow for many more than yesterday’s runs, it’s time to start looking at temperature profiles at the surface and several thousand feet above the surface for the next few runs. Ice/sleet threat is increasing along with the heavy snow threat. Could get nasty…
Not sure I agree. The track on the NAM is quite a bit further south.
compared to other runs today, this latest shift is not as pronounced but the trend is still there…south and east.
Maybe I’m missing something, but the 0Z NAM seems to make every effort to avoid Louisville and Jefferson county while dumping heavy snow to the west and north and lighter amounts to the east.
I was thinking the same thing…what’s up with that?
Considering how much further to the south the NAM is with the Low in eastern KY, you would think Jefferson Country would see more snow. But in fact, it has significantly less snow than the 18Z run which was farther to the west.
Going with the Euro. It has been consistent. Got a smoker for Christmas and will smoke some ribs for New Years with black eyed peas and cabbage.
Jackson KY NWS latest HWO: growing potential for light snow accumulations in eastern Kentucky Wednesday night through Thursday..spotter activation may be needed for snow reports
Yea baby! 🙂 http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_ETA212_SFC_ACCUMSNOWFALL-KUCHERA_72HR.gif. (live in Lex.). Keep shifting SE.