Merry Christmas Eve. The clear trend among the models over the past 24 hours is for a farther south and east tracking storm. That allows the heaviest snow band to set up farther east into Kentucky. You’ve been seeing my tweets about the NAM and I wanted to show you what the model snowfall map looks like through Thursday.
Here ya go…
The same run of the model also produces a period of sleet and freezing rain for areas along and north of interstate 64 before switching to snow. I am NOT saying the above map is right and I really don’t think it is because I feel there is more adjusting to go on the models.
My point of posting this is to illustrate a clear trend… east.
I will have a full update coming later tonight as we shift into Alert mode. Merry Christmas and take care.
Thanks Mr Bailey
Needs to shift a little more east!
STAY POSITIVE, THINK SNOW
My ONLY complaint…I wish it was 24 hours later! 🙂
Be careful folks. CB only posted to illustrate the path trend. Going by any one model and not a weighted average of models and their trends is usually a mistake.
BTW, if the models start agreeing and the trend keeps heading east, that suggests that momentum and energy is drawing that way. It could theoretically end up smacking Kentucky more than expected. Not a big chance, but still a chance.
If that snowfall map is right, and I know it’s not, I could fly from Bowman Field, where there would be about a half inch of snow, to Clark County airport 10 miles north, where there would be about 6 inches of snow.
How come in Murray everyone here locally says an inch or two when all the model runs today have shown at least four to six and yet we aren’t even under an advisory?
That shows Owensboro with 10-12″, Henderson with 16″+. I’m liking this trend. 😀
You do now, until the power goes out, you get cold and the wolves start getting hungry. SEE! Now if the system does not pan out, you feel relieved! 🙂 .
Darth Bubba at his best
lol 😀
I’m a native Coloradan. Winter weather isn’t anything new to me. 🙂
Especially the wolves part then, since one wrong mountain side ski adventure can get emotional!
Thanks, Chris. And Merry Christmas to you and all my friends here on the blog. I’m hoping east and a bit more south, but not too much!
NWS Louisville needs to have a conference call in my opinion, but it might be a little late tonight.
It still looks like little to nothing for me in Corydon IN, I’m sad 🙁
I rather be in your spot than points south east.
Yeah I guess a couple of inches is better then nothing.
00z gfs looks like it is going south from the 500mb pattern….
GFS track very similar to the NAM except less than half of the precip totals. Owensboro has 12″ on the NAM vs. 4″ on the GFS. I’d gladly take either!
The Nam is on steroids.
Thats great but will that effect the tract.
Poor Louisville…they just get skipped on that map.
What a weird looking snowfall map!
C’mon GFS and Euro, trend EAST!!!
That is a strange map, a dome between Frankfort and Louisville, then 3to 5 inches in lex? Doubt it is right anyway, TWC has St. Louis getting 10 inches and that map shows 0 for them!
I’m in “Gunchester” with Rolo, how much shifting do we need to see to pick up a decent show, no ankle biters??
3 of us in gunchester
Trending south and east
The new GFS does go farther east and farther south, but in a herky jerky way. The low heads to Bowling Green or so and then moves due east along the state line with TN. The low in eastern KY is basically around the meeting point of KY, TN, and VA. This position should be much, much better for the Ohio river counties and spots a bit farther east, but we’ll see.
the way the models are all going east by this time tomorrow cent/and east tern ky will be getting all the snow.
wonder wha nws offices are thinking…the maps are moving out of some of watch areas especially if trends continue
Dry SLOT for Louisville. I like the earlier maps better….Anyhow Merry Christmas to all. We will see what happens with this.
Let the dry slot party begin. I thought the 0z runs might settle this,onward weather soldiers we will march towards the 12z runs.
Hope all that want snow gets it! Myself I’m good with a inch. We had nearly a foot at halloween here in Jenkins (Letcher Co.) with three and ahalf days without electricity. Love those big snows but love staying warm better. 🙂 … Merry Christmas to everybody! Hope your day is awesomely blessed..
Merry Christmas to all my fellow bloggers!!!! I will take whatever comes down…as long as it is white!!! 🙂
Wouldn’t it be ironic if this is 1998 dusting part 2? Thinks about it: In 98, the system was supposed to smack SE Kentucky and parts east, but it shifted heavy to the west. Back then, there were was not all this constant data proliferation with models, blogs etc, so people were caught more off guard.
In this case, it COULD shift heavy to the east as the energy keeps drawing that way. Likely? No, but is theoretically possible…. Theoretically speaking.
Happened before, and even more recent in the last 10 years. CKY has lost storms to west ky..Maybe West ky loses this storm to CKY as you said doubtful, but it is something that can’t be ruled out.
At this point the trend is in our favorite. But do not forget about the dome. Such irony.
aint no snow finna hit da ground in cky.imma make sho yall dont get nuttin but rain.
Thanks for updating, Chris. Awaiting to see what is going to happen now, as the models are still shifting, even this close to the event. Looking forward to your next post, and to the next models.
All I know is, when we start out as rain, we usually get the shaft on snow. Guess we will see. ‘Night all, and Merry Christmas!
I live in Taylor Mill (Covington) and they are calling for rain?? No snow at all. Should I give this map any validity at all?
C’mon baby….move just a little more eastward and a touch southward; then STAY put!!!! Merry Christmas!
I’m thinking a dusting to an inch (maybe) in our area. Maybe the weekend will be different!
I hope everyone is enjoying their Christmas night!