Good Wednesday to one and all. We have a couple of severe weather threats to track over the next few days with the first arriving this afternoon and evening. The second one will follow that up over the weekend as our temps go through a big swing.
Let’s start things off with today and roll forward.
Temps are 80-85 in most areas as a few clusters of storms develop and roll eastward through the day. These storms may be strong or severe with damaging winds and hail the main players. There is a low-end tornado risk. While this action doesn’t look terribly widespread, the Storm Prediction Center has the entire region in the low-end threat for severe storms…
In addition to the severe threat, storms can put down a tremendous amount of rain causing local high water issues. That’s something that may be an issue into early Thursday.
Temps turn downright toasty for Friday with 85-90 degree numbers for most of the state on a gusty southwest wind.
This is ahead of a potent cold front sweeping in here late Saturday into Saturday night. That brings more showers and thunderstorms our way…
That continues to have the look of a severe weather maker for much of the region and one we will be watching closely in the coming days.
Much cooler air sweeps in behind that as our numbers go well below normal into early next week.
There is the threat for another system to move in here by the middle of next week…
As usual, I have you guys all set up and ready to do a little storm tracking…
Current watches
Possible Watch Areas
Make it a super Wednesday and take care.
Thanks Chris, maybe we will finally receive that much needed rain today or tomorrow ? Hopefully, we will escape the severe weather, but there is always that chance.
The convective available potential energy ( CAPE ) looks very high ( above 2000 ) for most of Kentucky the next few days according to the Ventusky Weather Site, but this has happened before and there wasn’t any severe widespread weather.
I noticed yesterday going into town ( Campbellsville ) that in one field the corn has more than emerged so there has to be some moisture in that soil.
The SPC also predicts MLCAPE values in the 2000 range. They also specifically mention that the MCV currently moving through Western Kentucky will raise dewpoints. Solar heating will also add to the atmospheric destabilization, and they specifically mention that supercell formation is likely by mid afternoon in Western and Central Kentucky. The absence of strong jet stream winds should minimize shear, but cold air aloft could increase hail chances. This is a situation worth monitoring closely.
Thanks Joe for the very interesting meteorological information.
There is an unusual amount of disagreement 30-36 hours out on how the weather will play out around here in the Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky area amongst the various meteorologists. Some think there will be another round of strong storms roll through Thursday evening while others barely mention rain or say there is a chance of Isolated Storms. BTW it appears Chris and the NWS are with the latter line of thinking which makes me happier. 🙂
Not ready yet for 90 degrees on Friday but at least the heat is transient and by Sunday it will be cooler for a bit.
Never ready for that first 90 + degrees ! Hopefully your right about the cool down.
So far the action in Ky. has been nonexistent.
Which is frustrating because I could be outside painting & sealing wood around my home.
Here is a summary of the record warmth the Chicago area experienced last week between May 10-13. Among the records broken (at Chicago’s official reporting station at O’Hare Airport) were the earliest consecutive 90-degree days in 63 years, the earliest 70-degree lows on record, plus the earliest dew point of at least 73 degrees on record. https://weather.gov/lot/2022may1013
By contrast, it is a cloudy, very cool day today around the area with temps only in the 50s to near 60. What a difference a week makes!
It’s been mostly Sunny and very warm and some what humid here in Maple this afternoon. No rainfall or storms or severe weather. Looks like the front may come South later this evening and may give us that much needed rain ?
The highest temperature so far this season has been 85 degrees F.