The Heat Returns This Week

Good Sunday and Happy Father’s Day to all the dads out there. This might be the best Father’s Day weather we’ve ever had around here. VERY pleasant temps and plenty of sunshine are combining to make this day one to remember. Unfortunately, the heat is set to blast back in for the week ahead.

Let’s start with today and roll forward.

Lows this morning range from the mid and upper 40s in the cooler valleys of central and eastern Kentucky, to the low and middle 50s in the west. Highs this afternoon hit the 70s again in the east and the 80s for the west. Humidity stays down with a mix of sun and clouds.

The heat begins to build into western Kentucky on Monday with highs from the upper 80s to low 90s. The rest of the state sees the comfy 80s with humidity that’s still pretty good.

The heat begins to build in on Tuesday and looks to peak on Wednesday. The extent of the heat is still in question, but 90-95 looks like a good bet for many. Can we get hotter? Yes. Can we get as hot as the EURO continues to advertise? Doubtful.

Let’s start with Tuesday and figure out which model doesn’t look like the others.

Here’s the GFS for Tuesday highs…

Here’s the NAM…

Now, let’s take a look at the EURO for the same time…

Look at the EURO for Wednesday…

And the GFS at the same time…

We have the EURO pushing all time record high temps across Kentucky vs. the GFS that keeps temps in the 90s. I’ll take the GFS but will add a few degrees across the central and east.

Our last round of heat underperformed compared to what all the models were forecasting, especially the EURO.

The numbers should come back down some Thursday and Friday with the threat for scattered showers and storms blowing through here.

It’s interesting to note how cool the operational GFS continues to trend for the closing days of the month into early July…

Given the drying ground, I have my doubts on that one.

Have a great Father’s Day and take care.