Good Sunday, folks. Torrential rains soaked parts of the Bluegrass state Saturday, causing flash flooding issues. With a similar setup out there today and Labor Day, our flash flood threat continues for the entire region.
A slow-moving system continues to work across the region with spiraling bands of showers and storms. Narrow corridors of 2″-4″ of rain can show up in a short amount of time with these bands and that will be more than enough to produce flooding and flash flooding issues.
This is the case today through Monday with the potential for this to linger into the middle of the week. I’ll get into that in a bit. First, let’s get you set to do some heavy rain and storm tracking with your area radars…
This rich moisture supply is straight out of the Gulf of Mexico and will continue to be pulled northward into the region along and ahead of our low and upper low. There’s a good chance this thing lingers through the week and into next weekend…
EURO
This heavy rain corridor from the Gulf into our region shows up very well on the 2 week rainfall anomalies from the EURO Ensembles…
Folks, that’s the average from 51 different members.
The Control Run is a super-soaker with well above normal numbers…
Again, those aren’t totals, those are how many inches above normal for this 2 week period. Wow.
The good news is that this setup keeps temps normal to below normal for highs. That’s about as good as the news gets with this type of setup as more flooding issues are a good bet in the coming days.
Have a happy Sunday and take care.
Saturday was a wild day in South Central Kentucky. A potent thunderstorm cluster put down just under an inch of badly needed rainrain between the hours of 4:00pm and 6:00pm, while at the same time and about 18 miles to the south, Simpson county picked up nearly 4.00 inches of rain, which fell between the hours of 4:05pm and 4:50pm CDT.
In the Atlantic, tropical storm Earl continues to gradually increase in intensity, as it begins a slow turn to the north. By Wednesday, Earl is expected to reach Category 1 level, and at the same time it will be on a course to the northeast. Aside from hurricane Danielle, which continues to churn in the north-central Atlantic, the Hurricane Center is watching an area of convection or tropical wave, which they currently label as having a less than 40% chance of intensifying over the next five days. There is slightly cooler ocean water in its path, along with an area of above normal shear in its path, so strengthening for this wave is not likely.
Only 0.11 inches from a puny thundershower late yesterday evening but that’s more than what I expected. The really good beneficial rains and the unfortunate flash flooding fell well to my North. I’m concerned this pattern consisting of warm tropical conditions will destroy our Autumn weather ? The notorious ‘ Southeast Ridge ‘ is now beginning to display it’s influence by holding this late season heat and humidity over the Ohio Valley rather than having the cold fronts move through giving us that crisp, clear early Autumn weather.
I don’t think of most of Sept as fall….Maybe starting in late sept. Yes…the Bermuda High…It’s a miracle the island of Bermuda ever gets rain.
It just seems that September has become one of our Summer months these past several years. I remember we use to have great Autumn weather in September back in the 50’s, 60’s and 70’s. Something has changed in our climate back in the 80’s. I suspect Solar activity has something to do with it ? September never use to be this tropical in the Ohio Valley as long as I can remember.
I fear that this is the “new normal”. I’ve been checking some statistics on La Niña cycles. And traditionally we see a flip from El Niño to La Nińa every one to three years
with an ENSO neutral condition thrown in occasionally to break up the monotony. Since they started keeping records on ENSO in 1950 there have been eight “double-dip” La Niñas, including the present, but only two ended up evolving to have a third consecutive La Niña winter. Chances are very good (bad!) that La Niña will stick around through the end of 2022, and we will be in a rare a triple dip La Niña.
The major difference this year is the absence of a ramped up hurricane season, which traditionally happens during a Summer and Fall when La Niña is in effect, but at least for the short term, that is not happening. My personal opinion is that this anomaly has climate change at its core, which in itself has made mid to long range forecasting a meteorological nightmare. All we can do is stay tuned.
Joe, I too fear that the four season you and I grew up with has been taken away for some unknown reason. I believe it’s absolutely natural for the Earth and the Sun as well as the Moon to go through cycles to balance out the climate here on Earth. Since the 1980’s the Earth’s climate has been out of balance which could be cause by reason and answers unknown to Man. Absolutely, I believe this to become the new normal with La Nina as a permanent climatic fixture in the Tropical Pacific.
Hmm……..! Hurricane safe zone.LOL
Yes we are entering a climate change to certain point, but does anyone knows how the climate was before the book keeping. It all comes in cycles in my opinion. As of now we’re playing with fire.