Good Monday and Happy Labor Day. Our extended holiday weekend is ending with additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms pushing across the area. This is a trend that continues fora few more days before we can get into a small break. That break is likely ahead of more storms and a big push of fall air.
Let’s begin with today and roll forward.
It’s not all day rainfall and you can still get those outdoor activities in if you plan accordingly. Just like we’ve seen in recent days, once showers and storms go up they can put down a lot of rain in a short amount of time. That keeps our flash flood threat going.
Here are your radars…
Temps today are generally in the pleasant 70s for highs.
Scattered showers and storms will continue into Tuesday and Wednesday and that shows up on this animation from today through Wednesday night…
That looks to sink far enough to the south to keep our Thursday and Friday largely rain free, but that might end up being a close call. Still, we will take it!
By the weekend, the pattern features this big upper low across the south heading back to the north. At the same time, we have a deep fall trough digging into the plains states. Do these two merge to form a big deep eastern U.S. trough or do we get a deep cutoff system around here?
The GFS and EURO are currently on the same page with a slow-moving system bringing more rounds of showers and storms to us from the weekend into early next week…
EURO
GFS
The topics are fully awake as we head into the peak of the hurricane season. Danielle and Earl are spinning out in the Atlantic…
Both are likely fish storms, meaning they shouldn’t impact land. Earl looks to curve well out to sea…
If that system is still hanging around a week from now, something could try to tug that thing farther west toward the east coast.
The eastern Pacific is also busy with a system forecast to become a hurricane and head toward Baja California…
What’s left of that even has an outside shot at impacting southern California.
Have a safe and happy Labor Day. Take care.
We had a pop-up thunderstorm blow through the Bowling Green area shortly after 9:00pm CDT Sunday night. One minute there was nothing on the radar, the next it began pouring and put down a quick ¾” of rain, along with frequent lightning.
Looks like more of the same this week, but I’m sure happy to see the words “big push of Fall air…” in Chris’s forecast. Bring it on!
I notice this Morning that the ” potential ” for the heavy rains and flooding forecast earlier has really decrease in coverage from 90 % down to 60 % for today with the current radar showing most of the rains have past by and are in the Appalachians. With this event we received 0.00 inches of rain here in Maple but we did receive the clouds, high dew points in the 70’s, and humidity. I can’t find any signs or signals of any real Autumn weather showing up in the next fourteen days on the Ventusky. All the real cool, pleasant Autumn weather is currently being held up in Central Canada by a very steep high pressure ridge. Maybe we will receive a” glancing blow ” of the cooler drier weather later, only to be replace by more Summer like weather by next weekend. The latest on the Tropics is a continuation of more of the same which we all hope will hold till the end of the season ? In the Tropical Pacific, La Nina continues and looks to be getting stronger which will have a definite effect on the Fall and Winter ahead.
Schroeder, your past experiences with grass seed have been mine these last several days. Rain all around us while I’m out watering the lawn with a garden hose – occasionally accompanied by thunder from tantalizingly nearby cells. Bummer.
What really has me puzzled is the continuous upwelling and reinforcement of below normal temperature ocean water off the coast of South America, and we’ve both noticed that if anything, it’s strengthening. You’d think that this being the equatorial waters of a planet that is steadily warming, that you would see this beginning to stabilize or go in the opposite direction. Instead, as is clearly evident in the SSTA chart from September 4th, it is strengthening, and now stretches clear across the Pacific! The warm waters of the northern Pacific continue their upward temperature trend, with a huge warmer than normal patch off of Japan’s coast, and the same holds true in the northern Atlantic off of the New England coast. While we’re on this chart, check out the waters off of the Siberian coast. I can’t recall every seeing that differential, especially heading into Fall!
This makes absolutely NO sense. Records show that if this La Niña makes it through Fall, as it appears it will, that it will be only the 3rd time in the past 73 years that we will have had 3 La Niñas in a row, and start an unprecedented 4th year on the strong side. For years, climatologists have talked about a climatic “tipping point”, if planetary warming continues unabated. I don’t want to sound like chicken little, but we may be at that point!
Here’s the SSTA chart.
https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/
Yeah, that large area of much below normal surface sea temperatures in the Tropical Pacific has me puzzled too. It looks to me ENSO should be dominating now and last through next year. Wonder what kind of Fall and Winter we had here in the Ohio Valley when we had the last triple dip La Nina ?
It is strange to see above normal SST in the Arctic region North of Siberia this close to Autumn. I study that chart / map every time I turn on the computer. Excellent information, and it will be interesting to see the many long ranged outlooks for the upcoming Fall and Winter that are close to correct.
If this La Nina continues another four years or longer the Agriculture Industry our food source will be in a disasterous situation.
Schroeder, your experiences with grass seed have been mine these last several days. While it’s been raining all around us, I’ve been watering the lawn with the garden hose – even accompanied by sounds of thunder from tantalizingly nearby cells. Bummer. The good news is that the scorching hot wind and blistering sunshine have been replaced by partly cloudy skies and more moderate temps, so the ground isn’t as parched as previously. The locusts are among the first to herald the fall season, and yellow leaflets are falling like a gentle rain.