Good Tuesday to one and all. Today feels more like a Monday after that long holiday weekend. A weekend that featured rounds of torrential rain producing showers and storms that linger out there today. The pattern ahead is one that gives us a break before cranking out more heavy rain making storms by the weekend.
Let’s focus on today then start looking farther down the road.
Our Tuesday storms won’t be as widespread but can still pack a tropical downpours that produce local high-water issues, especially in the east. Here are your radars to follow along…
There’s still a storm risk waiting on us for Wednesday, but a drying trend begins to take control. This dry weather looks to take us through Thursday and Friday with seasonable temps.
A big upper level low is spinning across the south and will merge with a trough digging into the Mississippi Valley over the weekend. Those two will form another slow-moving upper low that spins on top of us into the first half of next week.
We are seeing some pretty good model agreement between the EURO and the GFS…
EURO
GFS
The end result for us is another wet period with rounds of showers and thunderstorms spiraling across our part of the world…
EURO
GFS
That would be another pattern that can produce too much rain on a local scale.
Meteorological fall is off to another wet start, but that’s been the distinct trend with our changing climate. 5 of the top 10 wettest Autumn’s in Lexington history have occurred since 2002 (20 years). Record keeping for the city started in the 1870s.
The tropics continue to be of no threat to the United States as Danielle and Earl swim with the fishes…
Danielle is expected to curve north and then slowly northeast…
Our in the Pacific, Kay heads toward Baja California…
I still think that has a shot to bring tropical moisture into southern California later this week.
Have a terrific Tuesday and take care.
Cal. could use the rain.
With this latest rain event, the various weather models did a great job with the rainfall totals except my county continues to be 18 inches below normal. A brief rain / shower late yesterday was most welcome.
The Western States are really suffering and need much change in the overall weather pattern. Will this very important area receive such ? That depends on a lot of factors going on in the Tropical Pacific.
La Niña is doing nothing to help the situation out West, and everything to hurt, and with abnormally cool surface temperatures stretching from South America through the Solomon Islands, it isn’t about to loosen its grip. The weekly Nino -3.4 region index (SST’s in the east-central pacific) is down to -1.2°C, which is the coldest weekly SST anomaly in August since 2010. But the CPC continues to predict that La Niña will gradually decrease from 86% to 60% in the December ’22 to February ’23 time frame. We shall see…
Conditions out West as well as here in the Eastern half of our Nation will not change until the Pacific Decadal Oscillation goes positive. They need a strong El Nino to break out of the awful heat and drought they been having these many years.
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